rc trader

Natural Gas: Ride U-Turn Up

There really has been no rally at all in nat gas recently, hence the performance of UNG and other ETF's. Look at a chart of Dec futures, they just took out the Sept. lows and have had a nominal bounce the last two days. The entire "rally" has been the steep contango coming out of the market somewhat and even with a sharply (10-15%) colder winter heating season the odds are very good of entering next spring with still bloated inventories. A market which can't rally with a strong crude complex and a weak dollar does not merit investment at the current time.

Is Natural Gas About to Break Higher?

why would there be a push to outlaw fracking? this is clearly still the driver of continued high production even in the face of a greatly reduced rig count


On Jul 22 11:27 AM geofisher1 wrote:

> The question is where are we going from here, and I agree. Cycles
> in price, supply, and demand are natural and the most sucessful way
> to make money in nat gas / oil is to buy @ 5 yr and 10 yr lows (they
> don't come around very often). If you are a medium term investor,
> now is the time to load up on nat gas pipelines and smaller E&P
> guys. Watch out for the push to outlaw fracking, as it will shut
> down 30% of oil and 50% of current nat gas wells - forget Haynesville
> if that happens. New pipelines xcountry will open up new areas for
> gas comptition - ie new pipeline from Rockys to Chi-town and Haynesville
> to FL. Interesting times and I'm long nat gas - DMLP, EPD, APA, ATPG,
> GMXR, GO.TO. Just my humble opinion

Spreading Oil and Natural Gas: A Post-Labor Day Plan

Shouldn't the ratio of futures contracts for energy equivalency be 5.8 nat gas vs 10 crude? Nat gas is 10,000 mmbtu/contract and 58 long contracts of NG vs only 10 short crude would have had seriously bad consequences post Gustav.