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KRT_investor

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  • Why I Am Selling My Shares Of SandRidge Permian Trust [View article]
    Robbink - Yes, you are correct. The August distribution will include one month of hedges (March) at about $100 Bbl. interestingly enough the number of hedges (on 304MBbl) for the Jan - Mar 2015 period will exceed the oil production output for those months. PER over hedged based on its lower production numbers of late. That over hedging is to the benefit of subordinated unit holders. Unit holders will still only get the minimum level of $.64. Come August the subordinated unit holders will get zero as the trust won't be able to meet its minimum distribution per unit requirement of $.61. If you assume one month of hedges, current production and $50 Bbl average oil a unit holder will struggle to get a return of $.47 per unit with full subordination.
    Apr 26, 2015. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Selling My Shares Of SandRidge Permian Trust [View article]
    Forensic Account - I appologize for my error. I jumped the gun on my comment and didn't focus on the date listed. I too am expecting a $.65 per share dividend this quarter. Last quarter the share price ran up a $1.40 in the last 10 days before the ex dividend date.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Selling My Shares Of SandRidge Permian Trust [View article]
    Forensic Accountant - Here is the link For news on PER from SA news on PER.

    http://bit.ly/1yZaPHt
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Selling My Shares Of SandRidge Permian Trust [View article]
    Forensic Account - I thought i read in an SA news item that PER had declared a very disappointing dividend of $.52 and that was why the stock took a hit? Can you straighten me out?
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    It was yesterday.
    Apr 17, 2015. 02:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orchid Island Capital: A Best-Of-Breed mREIT Contender? [View article]
    I bought in at $12.50 early in 2014 and with that constant $.18 dividend per month I'm enjoying a nice 17.3% simple return. What a cash cow. Just bought more on the recent dip to $13.20 and that is now returning 16.4%. Since ORC has a fair amount of volatility ($13 - $15) over a three month period you can also trade on that rather than just hold it.

    I too was concerned about the constant share dilution that results from secondaries. ORC did this twice in early 2014 while the market price was below book value and it really beat up the market price (down into the upper $11's). Those secondaries also drove down book value as well. I took advantage of one of those dips on a flyer and have lucked out (so far anyway).

    But since then ORC management has gotten much smarter. Rather than cause market disruption by flooding large secondaries on to the market all at once they have become very subtle by in essence issuing stealth secondaries continuously. Since the stock's market price is above its book value the issuing is accretive to book value. This in turn makes the investment look better and the market price grows. The new money ORC receives can be invested in new areas that look opportunistic with the potential for greater return than "old money" invested in areas that may not look so rosy any more. Now everyone is a winner in this scenario. The ORC managers are growing their advisor pay check while the investor's shares are also growing in value and he/she is being supplemented with one of the best yields in the mREIT space. What could go wrong?..... Well the end of ZIRP for one.

    My suspicion is that when you see ORC topping out at $15 or so the management starts selling new issue stock into the market. They keep doing this until they drive the price down to near book value. They then stop issuing new stock and then new investors, perceiving an opportunity, start buying the stock on the street and bid the street price back up again to around $15....and the cycle resets and repeats. Now this probably doesn't account for all the volatility but I bet it accounts for a large part of it.
    Apr 10, 2015. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT ETF/ETN Showdown: REM Vs. MORL [View article]
    Darren - i threw the part about volatility out thinking just in terms of the two mREITs (AGNC & MTGE) dividends#1 prefers but I wasn't clear about that in my comment. I completely agree with your comment in reference to MORL as a whole.
    Mar 29, 2015. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT ETF/ETN Showdown: REM Vs. MORL [View article]
    James Bjorkman - Thanks for a thought provoking article. I would question one assertion you made. You state that MORL's fees (tracking and borrowing costs) are taken out of the coupon. This is in fact not true. If you consult all the UBS documentation on MORL you will find that all fees are subtracted out on a monthly basis from the indicative value (essentially MORL's NAV). Because of market makers MORL's trading price tracks very closely its indicative value. So in fact if the MORL index stayed at a constant level you would see MORL's price decay very slowly over time (right now with a very low libor short term rate it is about 1% per year). This 1% is lost in the noise of the index fluctuations and is certainly swamped by the large coupon MORL provides.
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT ETF/ETN Showdown: REM Vs. MORL [View article]
    Dividends#1 - But....are not AGNC and MTGE part of MORL and actually constitute about 15% of MORL? Doesn't MORL also include 22 other mREITs, some with the same objectives as AGNC and MTGE and some with objectives that would hedge AGNC and MTGE objectives. Don't MORL's 22 other mREITs spread the risk out to the mREIT sector and not just to the risk of the sector and the risk of a company or two (both managed by the same people)?

    On the 15% of MORL that is AGNC and MTGE aren't you getting 2X the dividend return (with granted 2X the price volatility) of your favorite mREITs? Isn't MORL essentially a 2X index fund of 90% of the mREIT space? Isn't MORL a ruled based (not an actively managed investment portfolio) investment of an index with no requirement to sell (there are no asset risk to the investor, just UBS) to cover margin calls?

    My view would be just the opposite of yours. I'd hold the greatest portion of my portfolio in MORL and a small portion in AGNC and other mREITs (NYMT, ORC, WMC) which in fact I do. But we are both entitled to our own views and choices and that's what is great about the capitalistic system (there are some negatives but that is a discussion for another time).

    Just some food for thought and also to enliven the discussion.
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:08 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL March Dividend To Bring Yield To 24%, Yellen Holds The Key To The Future [View article]
    Mrmedusa - yes they have but I'm picky and want MORL total return. SPLX (2x the S&P 500 index) is of great interest to me. I'm waiting for the S&P to drop back about 5% before jumping in my investment account. Also CMCI (2x price of oil and gas) looks very interesting right now with oil probably close to a floor.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL March Dividend To Bring Yield To 24%, Yellen Holds The Key To The Future [View article]
    As they would mine. I live in NH where though we don't have sales or income taxes we do have a 5% dividends (even qualified dividends) and interest tax so a total return MORL, CEFL, etc. would be great since the "dividends" would come out as "capital gains" which are not taxed (either short or long) in NH.

    We should ask Lance (since he seems to have contacts with UBS) to contact them and ask them to if they would consider starting up these total return MORL, CEFL, etc funds. I would think the cost to UBS would be very small since it would just be the MORL structure with the Market Vectors total return mREIT index (instead of the price index) and it would bring a large number of new players into the game. They might just start with one (I would highly favor MORL for that role) and see how it works out.
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dovish Fed Statement Puts The Kibosh On 18% Dividend Western Asset Mortgage's Strategy [View article]
    This is the perfect scenerio for the trader...volatility. With the price obviously out of sync with the underlying reality as a trader I am selling into the ex-dividend price build up. I will return after ex-dividend date and after Q1-2015 results are out and the stock is back in the $13 range to buy again.

    As an investor I don't care too much about price but would love to have the stock price down in the $13 range when it comes time to drip my dividend.
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The YMBI&OC INCOME Portfolio V2.0: MORL, WMC, CEFL, BDCL, SLVO, LNCO + OXLC... [View instapost]
    The ultimate leveraging....what could go wrong?
    Mar 22, 2015. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL March Dividend To Bring Yield To 24%, Yellen Holds The Key To The Future [View article]
    The problem with this strategy is that when a stock goes ex-dividend the market price drops by that amount so if you sell immediately after you get the right to the dividend you have a capital loss equal to the dividend so generally this turns out to be a wash. Three times a wash equals a wash.
    Mar 21, 2015. 11:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Sept 2014 Coupon Calculation Spread Sheet Using The Yield Method [View instapost]
    I think the key is that for the most part the underlying mREIT index members are being very conservative on their hedginging against rate changes (both short term and long term rates) and are thus providing a relatively low (in historical terms) but very stable dividend as well as a book value that has relatively low volatility. Now the market price of the index members is all over the place driven mainly by the fear of ZIRP ending and short term rates rising. What the market doesn't seem to understand is how well the mREITs are positioned for that increase with hedging. Some may actually benefit from small increases in short term rates. mREIT prices were down recently and thus MORL was down 2X that so I bought 30% more. My view is the dividends are very safe and as long as that is the case I will DRIP my dividends and buy when the market price drops.

    I have most of my MORL investment in retirement accounts and in particular my Roth where a 22% return is truely a 22% return...nothing lost to taxes. It will probably be my parting gift to my kids, grandkids and maybe even great grandkids.

    Contributor Scott Kennedy writes excellent articles on mREITs and is well worth reading to understand the trends and safety of mREITs.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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