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rickymm3

rickymm3
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  • Sell Netflix: The Icahn Thesis Is Flawed [View article]
    icahn's no genius...but when you have enough money and influence over the leeches, he can make wild swings like netflix happen.

    Netflix has a small future. Lets look at their allies....none.

    Lets look at their competition: Comcast, Verizon, Hulu, all cable stations, google, apple, amazon, and more everyday.

    Anyone that invested in netflix without the intention of riding an artificially created wave needs a reality check.

    The problem is...nothings going anywhere until something sparks a huge selloff for the entire market.
    Jan 14 01:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Klarman raises alarm over asset prices, cites tech “nosebleed valuations” [View news story]
    Jack Bogle says ... "Ya never know when its going to stop goin' down....so just never let it! Keep buying!"

    derp.
    Mar 10 07:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the iPhone: Gene Munster says his latest Apple Store checks indicate "the iPhone 5 has finally reached a point where consumers can walk into an Apple Store and walk out with a phone." He also notes AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint are all "showing 90%+ availability" for the iPhone, which recently saw its shipping time on Apple's online store fall to 1 week. Munster still forecasts 45M Dec. quarter iPhone sales - he was predicting 49M when the quarter started. (previous[View news story]
    its not that hard to predict...go into any apple store and any day and watch them fly off shelves.
    Nov 29 02:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are A Screaming 'Bye' [View article]
    "i dont want to gloat, but here I go anyway"

    In addition, do you think it just MIGHT be a possibility that you lucked out with your 'premonition?" Did you mention at all in your prediction about profit taking due to the end of tax cuts? For some reason, I doubt it.

    I think it was safe to say that a drop to 590 was justified as 705 was far too high a price (at the time). But down to 505? That was clearly based on a huge sell-off from some very strong positions which just so happened to occur immediately following the election.

    Now, im not one to say AAPL has a stronger future than GOOG, which is already justified in their PEs, but AAPL still has strong margins on their products and many loyal fans. While their market share may be shrinking, the market itself continues to grow. Itunes continues to be the best selling app store out there thanks solely to the devoted apple fans and their careless attitude to throw away money at things that should be free.

    Short term, this is great for AAPL. They enjoy large margins on their hardware, and get strong sales on their software front(the true future and $maker of mobile market). This will be a great quarter for aapl. And its silly, if not downright stupid to be short aapl right now.
    Dec 13 01:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    Yes yes, all the stuff you said. Though in addition to Netflix's debt and headache in obtaining content (looking at comcast timewarner deal), we still have the issue of just how MANY competitors netflix has.

    The main problem with Comcast (you DO realize you can access ALL of comcast's ondemand content online?), amazon prime, Hulu, HBO go, etc, right now is how difficult it is to FIND on the internet, and how annoying it is to login.

    Heck, I work for comcast, and rarely use their internet ondemand because I don't remember my login info.

    I dont ever use amazon prime instant video because the site is confusing and obnoxious to traverse.

    HBO GO was just the epitome of annoyance when trying to sign on.

    Once these things are fixed, and advertised properly, netflix will evaporate. Unfortunately, my belief is, this comes with a time limit. As more and more people get used to netflix, and less reliant on cable, the harder it will be for anyone else to convince the computer illiterate that their service is better.

    Bottom line --- Netflix is ahead because of how easy it is to use. Who would have thought? Not locking out your customers through an array of hoops, and offering a slick UI is what works? Once comcast, amazon, HBO, and the like figure that out (how hard is that .. really?), its going to be a whole new online.

    But ...doesnt change the fact that GOOGLE will crush everyone..in time.
    Feb 24 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Valuation Of Apple Inc. [View article]
    so...you invested in a company without knowing anything else about its competitor...

    yes...truly the 'apple story' --- aka: idiots buying expensive toys.
    Dec 12 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Valuation Of Apple Inc. [View article]
    article fails to account for the possibility that iphones become irrelevant. And thats exactly whats happening.

    In less than 2 years, iphones will be laughed at. If you consider yourself an analyst and youre not looking at everything google is 'setting in place' that you shouldnt be writing public articles.

    Android, chrome browser, maps, google plus, YOUTUBE, hell....if you can't connect the dots that get ready to lose your money on appl.

    Move to GOOGLE now..trust me...it will be a good thing to own part of the company that will rule the world.
    Dec 12 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Won't Be Buying Netflix Anytime Soon [View article]
    barrier of entry is DEFINITELY a concern. Amazon just entered the food industry didn't they?

    Do you have Wegmans near you? Apparently not, because Whole Foods is getting dominated by them in our area.

    Regardless, even trying to compare a business like Netflix to a business involving the food industry is ridiculous. It's on a whole different level...managing a website and tech people vs multiple stores, shipping, produce, etc.

    Anyone that deals in digital media is gunning for Netflix's business model. And thats a WHOLE lot of people, including Google and Apple.

    Good luck in Netflix. Hope you don't lose all your money.
    Jul 1 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hulu Buyout Could Expose Extreme Netflix Valuation [View article]
    I feel its important to restate the importance of new content. We talk about binge-viewing, but not about what the means exactly.

    People don't typically do re-runs on digital content. Content Consumption takes place at a much more rapid pace than content creation. What this implies is that 'sooner than later' NFLX subscribers will reach a plateau concerning the amount of content they ~want~ to watch on netflix. In fact, this is happening to all my cable-less friends.

    If netflix doesn't get new content, their subscriber base will whither away (albeit slowly). I believe it will take some time, because it usually takes quite a few months of not using something before you become aware enough to cancel.

    Either way, unless NFLX finds some new content, and doesn't feed it to you in binge-viewing formula, they will be beaten by competitors that do (AMZN, HULU, CMCSA, VZ, ETC)
    Jun 6 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Floundering And The Stock Price Is Down [View article]
    Aapl will never bounce back. I have to assume that the majority of iphone / ipad users simply have yet to use an android device. I switched to the nexus 4, 6 months ago and can't even hold an iphone 5 without thinking how incredibly old it feels.

    People might hate the MS surface pro, but it is leaps and bounds beyond ipads, which are in reality, one of the most worthless pieces of hardware out there. Seriously...you need to spend 500 dollars on a larger screen when you have the same software on your phone?
    Apr 16 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Home - What It Means For Apple, Google, And Microsoft [View article]
    Facebook is dying a slow death. I was a sophomore in college when it was released. I remember signing the petition to get it to come to our school.

    It was fun back then, but as with all things, it has gotten old. I check it perhaps once a week, briefly, only to see if I missed messages.

    AIM used to be popular too. But interest wanes as things become too common place.

    Facebook is far too integrated into our lives to be good. Its getting annoying, and if you ask anyone they will agree. The only people who post anymore are grandma's, young married women who love god and hate their lives, and catladies with nothing else going on in their lives so they need to share a quote I don't care about.

    Google plus on the other hand, acts as it should, as a portal for cloud storage. Its unobtrusive and acts merely as a service. I don't have to see it in my face (no pun intended) every second of my online life.

    sell facebook, buy goog.
    Apr 9 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Is In Trouble [View article]
    You didn't touch on googles little gem they call "YouTube." Remember when they streamed the State of the Union a few months ago? And they've been testing many other live streaming services to literally millions of viewers. Google is in a very lucrative position of creating an online network (in the same vein as ABC/NBC/CBS).

    The world is changing...and google is leading the way. They have foundations in enough vital areas to take over this world. Cars, mobile(OS and hardware), search, internet, maps, cloud, web hosting, enterprise(google drive/chrombook), social media. And they are the top of the industry for each, albeit, they are doing it under cover without making huge headlines.

    But back to fiber...While were saying goodbye to comcast, lets say goodbye to T,S, and VZ with googles introduction of google wireless.
    Apr 9 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Mini-Options Boost Your Retirement Portfolio? [View article]
    I've noticed that the prices for minis are still pretty high. I expected them to be 1/10th of the equal strike for the normal option...but this isn't the case.

    You mention they are a bit inflated at this point, any idea how long you expect that to be the case? And is it possible they remain roughly the same cost?
    Apr 3 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi and Piper's reports are helping Apple (AAPL +3.1%) turn in another strong performance; shares are now up 16% from their Nov. 16 low. The gains come even though Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves is slashing estimates (albeit keeping them above consensus) and predicting Apple's gross profit per iPhone unit has peaked after steadily rising for 5 years. Hargreaves now thinks the iPhone 5 will have a cost of goods sold of $370, up from a prior forecast of $353. [View news story]
    with more market saturation, comes more ad revenue and itune sales. The time has come..its no longer about hardware(even though aapl is still doing FINE), but pushing media through your online store to all those users who own your device. Which is why AMZN is still sitting pretty with that HUGE PE.

    And APPLE users spend the most money on their devices, and there are millions of them.
    Nov 26 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Google Earnings Announcement (Vs. Apple) With Options [View article]
    I don't consider myself as avid an option trader as any of you guys...but it is clear to me that both AAPL and GOOG have just tested their highs.

    AAPL's last low was 570ish, and that was after a missed earnings last quarter. For me, this marks their lowest support level. Don't see them going below this ..ever.

    Were setting up for AAPLs biggest quarter (holiday season) as well. After JUST testing an all time high, its now sitting at a paltry 630.

    Its clear that it will be returning to 700 range between now and jan 24th. If it drops below 600, im not even looking at spreads...its an all out call buy at 650+ strike for jan.

    Goog, like you said, is a different beast. Its sitting on all time highs with no real news or announcements regarding new revenue streams. Its going to drop hard imo...and the only thing I would buy following a positive earnings report are 690 puts.

    Both Goog and Aapl are in the middle of major peaks and valleys respectively. I dont think the need for risk offsetting is the move here.
    Oct 15 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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