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TheRabble

TheRabble
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  • My Reading Of The Financial Times On China's 'Turning Away From The Dollar' [View article]
    The goal for should be to conduct trade in a neutral currency, such as gold or silver. If China merely creates another paper reserve currency, the same abuses will take place and it will inevitably fail just like all of them have historically.
    Dec 19, 2014. 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Reading Of The Financial Times On China's 'Turning Away From The Dollar' [View article]
    I don't think the reserve status helps Americans who want economic freedom. It helps Americans of every economic class who want handouts from the government. Government now becomes all about favor peddling to auction off access to the international treasury, rather than creating policies that foster private-sector prosperity. The country that benefits from reserve status sows the seeds for its future economic collapse as it becomes unable to compete in a free market.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Reading Of The Financial Times On China's 'Turning Away From The Dollar' [View article]
    The whole study of economics is really a joke. This several thousand word "essay" could have been boiled down to a few simple equations and concepts. In the end, it did not even touch the underlying political and military reasons that drive the economic actions of nations. Just look at military history, rather than waste time on this nonsense. The empire with better military imposes its economic will until it collapses from internal corruption, and external attacks on its frontiers. One could say ISIS, Russia, and China are the barbarians at the gates. Although the latter two have more to lose from a direct military confrontation at this stage of the game.

    All China has to do is stop printing RMB to buy dollars. This will give Chinese citizens more purchasing power and allow them the ability to buy the goods they produce rather than shipping them to the US and elsewhere.

    Most likely the threat of a more aggressive US military posture in their backyard is what is holding them back from pursuing their best economic interests.
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Calculating A Fair Silver Price [View article]
    We have different definitions of inflation then. I define inflation as an increase of the money supply. Your definition of inflation is an increase in prices. I would not call falling prices due to technology deflation. I would call it increasing consumer value due to free market competition. Due to competition and technology, prices should be falling. If prices are rising, one reason could be new money creation (inflation) is overriding improved efficiency.

    I don't believe there is a significant quantity of money sitting in a vault that is affecting the velocity of money. At the very least money is parked in treasury bills, which reduces government borrowing costs, allowing the government to finance ever increasing deficits. This allows politicians to spend more money on buying votes, and other politically motivated projects.

    The Fed itself does not want to get into the politics of handing out $2,000 checks every month. They are, however, perfectly content to finance government deficits while the federal government handles that dirty work.
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Microsoft Beat Sony This Black Friday [View article]
    People still skeptical about Microsoft, therefore I continue to be long the stock.
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Calculating A Fair Silver Price [View article]
    There are many deeply flawed assumptions here. First, you can thrown out the BLS stats as they are nonsense. The true measure of inflation is the amount of currency that exists both physically and on paper (or electronically) divided by supply of currency at the initial point in time.

    If you go by that approach, you might get something like $1,000+ per ounce (that's a guess, as I have not done substantial research). Basically, that is the price assuming the dollar loses it's reserve currency status and foreign central banks dump all their dollars (since they would no longer have any reason to hold them). Whether that is a realistic risk or not is something an individual investor can consider along with how much security they want/need should that scenario take place.
    Nov 29, 2014. 01:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise contraction in Japanese GDP [View news story]
    They are paying back the bondholders with less valuable money thanks to Abe's monetary expansion. In other words, they are stealing from their citizens through inflation. It's just an additional tax.
    Nov 17, 2014. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft - A Dividend Growth Machine, But Valuation Is No Longer Compelling [View article]
    There are many many stocks in this market trading at ridiculous multiples. Microsoft has a long way before it reaches those levels. Even when it does reach the levels of "pricing in perfection" it doesn't mean it won't continue to go even higher, as many of the "momo" names have proven.
    Sep 11, 2014. 03:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Worth $37.07 Per Share [View article]
    The technical aspect is not a great reason for owning a stock, I admit. It simply gives you a statistical framework for analyzing price patterns and can help predict investor sentiment.
    Jun 21, 2014. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Worth $37.07 Per Share [View article]
    First of all Microsoft is not just about PCs. They are growing in tablet, smartphones, entertainment, enterprise, and developer tools.

    Second of all, if interest rates remain low, there is no reason MSFT wont continue to repurchase shares which will be very favorable to EPS growth going forward.

    From a technical analysis perspective, I expect MSFT to challenge its all-time high at $60 and start another up-leg to $100+ in the coming months and years.
    Jun 21, 2014. 08:29 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Can Hide In The Least Favorite Sectors: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF [View article]
    You might still lose gains if you are waiting for lower prices that never materialize. If gold starts to rally, you missed the opportunity to buy in at these levels.

    Today may have been the "buy the fact" moment in the gold market. Gold was sold off in anticipation of the ECB policy statement, and now that is out of the way. There is a good chance gold will rally strongly over the next couple weeks and continue the long-term bull cycle.
    Jun 5, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Demon The Gold Bears Are Mistakenly Overlooking [View article]
    Actually that is not a logical reason to own gold. If gold goes from $1250 to $1, I don't see the logic in holding onto it. The logic for me is that it is money in the classical sense and will hold value for much longer than the dollars used to purchase it will hold value. Eventually paper currency is properly valued by the market according to its natural scarcity. Since money continues to be created with no backing at the whim of people who benefit from inflation, the supply inevitably outpaces the demand, and its value approaches 0.

    Another short-term catalyst not mentioned by the author is second quarter GDP. If it is significantly weaker than expected, it increases the odds that the Fed will stop tapering or increase QE.

    In the short-term perhaps the Ukraine situation will bid up the gold price if Russia becomes more involved in a hot war. I personally would rather focus on the long-term fundamental reasons to own and continue to accumulate on a monthly/quarterly basis.
    May 31, 2014. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No. The Microsoft Surface Pro 3 Will Not Replace My Laptop [View article]
    Such thinly veiled contempt and pessimism for the Microsoft brand (on here and among the general public) is reason Microsoft stock continues to remain cheap. Both MSFT and AAPL are buys here, but I actually think MSFT has more upside potential.
    May 26, 2014. 01:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Months Into 2014, Market Has Barely Budged [View article]
    Why would you want sideways unless you need to cash out of the market in the next 2 years? If we dropped 30% it would be great opportunity for short term trading and adding to long-term positions.
    Apr 5, 2014. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Months Into 2014, Market Has Barely Budged [View article]
    "When a market breaks a clear trend with an extended sideways movement, we always assume the new trend, when it comes, will be opposite of the prior prevailing pattern."

    Statistically, consolidations are more likely to result in a continuation of the previous pattern. It does not mean we wont break lower, but historically it is less likely to occur.

    If the market goes parabolic to the upside, and breaks the uptrend with some bearish momentum, that is more likely to signal a change in trend.

    I see a trend in the S&P that remains sideways to up for this year. Even if we do get a blow-off top in the coming months, it does not mean the bull market is over as it could simply lead to a 10-15% correction.
    Apr 5, 2014. 10:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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