cynic69

Cheapest Valuations in Decades Will Trump Panic Selling

Dear JD
Do you realize how naive it sounds to state that "the PE ratio of the S&P 500 is 11". If you are talking about the past my reaction is that history is no harbinger of the future. If you are talking about future PE ratios you are dreaming a polyana dream. When I read articles like this it raises my suspicion that the author is already in the market and is hoping that he can trick the rest of us into piling in after him. I think that the consumer is in debt up to his hips and the price of oil is going to skyrocket again. I think that future PE ratios are more like 30 or 40. I have been banking a ton of money by buying puts everytime the market rallies. Anyway, best of luck to all you bulls.

Stock Market Cycles, Part 3: Primary Bear Markets

Wait a minute. Something is different this time. Do you remember that oil was $147 dollars a barrel until "demand destruction" cut if off at the knees? When this recession is over and demand destruction is a thing of the past do you think the price of oil will skyrocket once again? Currently there are 60 major oil fields on the earth. Fiftysix of the sixty are in serious decline. I think that the world economy is in a whole lot of trouble and that these historical lessons mean little or nothing when it comes to predicting the future.

Some Encouraging Developments in the Economy

First of all everyone knows that common stocks have no real value in that when the co. goes broke the shareholders get nothing. Secondly the forward looking earnings for stocks is a stockbrokers silly dream, based primarily on how much he has to earn in commissions to make the payments on his girlfriend's downtown apartment. Anyway Jim I think you should go all in. Those cheap stocks are just waiting for someone to give them a new home.

Are We at the Bottom Yet?

I think Mr. Roxburgh is long this market and he is hoping this article will convince the rest of us to jump right in. I think we are still at the top of the market and with energy prices at this level equities are going to need a 40% haircut before they start to make any since.

What's Pushing the Market Up?

This market is being manipulated by the Bush puppeteers, Ben and Henry. We wouldn't want the Bushies to look even worse than they already look, now would we?

Mindless Churn in Trendless Market

This market is being manipulated by the Bush puppeteers. When the price of oil sky rocckets the puppeteers are going to get their strings tangled, big time.

Just How Correlated Are Oil and Equities?

44 of the largest oil fields in the world are in serious decline. When lack of supply finally starts to effect the price of oil in a serious manner those sectors of the economy that are hyper sensitive to the price of energy, like autos and airlines, will bring the economy and the market to their Knees. This will prove that economy is connected to equities, big time.

Nasdaq and Tech ETFs: "Dead Cat" Bounce or Actual Bounce-Back?

“Oil doesn't have a genuine relationship with stock assets over time. Even shorter time period assessments would ironically show a positive correlation between the price of crude oil and stocks. After all, oil rose significantly in the bull market uptrend for stocks from 3/03-9/07.”
You’ve got to be kidding. Here is an idea. With oil at $140 and gasoline at $4.70 (in Ca.) folks are going to reduce their driving. This is going to torpedo the auto industry which will cause the economy to crater. I don’t know about you but I firmly believe that with the economy in the toilet the stock market may get sucked under. What do you think? By the way, with oil at $140 the airlines will follow the cars right down the old flusher.

Young Jeezy's 'The Recession': I Think We’ve Bottomed Out

Dear Terry – At $116 the price of oil is the highest it’s been in history. Neither the economy nor the market can survive with energy prices this expensive. We have passed peak oil and we are experiencing the first stages of the "peak oil death spiral". Check out this web site: ibisworld.com/indu... It says that as folks curtail their driving due to higher gasoline prices fewer mechanics will be required. The auto business is one of the major components of our economy and as thousands of mechanics are laid off the loss of revenue is going to snake through our economy like a deadly cancer. This same situation exists for the airline industry. The truth is that with oil at these prices stocks are only worth about 25% of their current value. When "investors" finally figure this out its Katy bar the door. If you think the price of energy is going down soon I think you are right. With the world in a severe recession far less energy will be required.

The Top 5 Looming Financial Issues

As the production of 20 major oil fields around the world slide into oblivion the world is sliding into chaos featuring death by freezing, starvation and war. Despite the blathering by T. Boone Pickens there is NO solution to the energy problem. If we had taken the right steps 50 years ago we wouldn't be in this situation but the oil lobbies made sure that their profits were maximized and devil take the hindmost. As citizens we have to take all the blame because we bought and drove our SUVs with our head stuck someplace where the sun don't shine.

I own a truck load of puts, a wide of array of canned food and weapons.

Stock Markets Nearing Important Bottom

Kunal
You sound like a guy who is long this market. Don't you realize that neither the economy nor the market can survive with energy prices at this level? Wait you say, it's doing OK so far. Not true. The refiners are still refining oil they bought for $95. This combined with the fact that Bernanake and Paulson are trying to save the White House for the republicans by flooding the system with liquidity has delayed the coming market crash. I'm afraid that your past experience is worthless because the economy is in its peak oil death spiral. I think that after the auto industry is cut in half and the airline industry disappears all together most stock prices will be about 20% of their current value. My advice is to sell whatever stocks you own and buy a truck load of puts.

Market Outlook: Three Weeks, Three Months, Three Years

Will the same bottom fishers that went long in March be stupid enough to try again even though conditions are worse than they were? Mark Twain said the the definition of insanity is when one does the same thing over again espects a different result. We should identify these bottom fishers and send them a copy of Howard Kunstlers' "The Long Emergency".

You Knew the Short Squeeze Was Coming

Here is a note for all you bulls. When I look at my charts I see that the stochastics indicate that the market is overbought and yet the prices haven't moved up at all. When you combine this terrible looking chart with price of energy I would guess that market is floating around in a pool of trouble and there is a grizzly bear with his paw on the flusher.

10 Signs of a Recession

We have passed peak oil so the bubble is not going to burst. We have no real leadership. We are rapidly apporaching disaster and the public dosen't have a clue.

Mid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible?

Phil - Have you read about King Hubbert and his peak oil theory? www.hubbertpeak.com/Hu.../ It doesn't sound like you have. King was a scientist, not a politician. Our civilization could have solved the energy crisis with conservation and ingenuity but we behaved like stupid sheep and let the oil industry and the Republicans convince us that cheap oil would last forever and there was no reason to change our wasteful ways. It's too late now. There is nothing anyone can do to make a dent in the 86 million barrels of oil that are used every day to fuel the 800 million motor vehicles that are on the road today. The problem with the price of oil is well documented, it's a declining resource and as such the price will go up for the rest of time and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it! Here are some events to watch out for in the near future: food riots, energy riots, death by freezing, hoarding of oil and coal, chaos and war. I think you should stop trading and put in some canned beans and ammo, things are going to get pretty nasty.