dw57

Diversifying, Yes; Decoupling, No

except for Brazil, none of the BRIC or BIC have much of a middle class. which is why they don't have much of a chance to decouple from the US. the theory of decoupling was that if the US tanked the others would continue on regardless of that. But you can't do that if you have an export economy. and your biggest market is the US.


On Apr 10 12:05 AM THofler wrote:

> I'm a little shocked that no one seems to remember any of the decoupling
> theses that I heard a few years back.
>
> None of them claimed that emerging markets would be recession proof
> over the short term, or ever particularly uncorrelated over the short
> term.
>
> The thesis always was that BRIC or maybe BIC has a rapidly growing
> middle class. Twenty years ago this middle class was insignificant
> relative to global GDP. But today it is no longer insignificant.
> They can now sustain their own economy and even some growth without
> relying entirely on selling stuff to the US middle class.
>
> That is the essence of "decoupling." That the US used to be the
> only significant market for "consumption," and now it is not.
>
> If you are keen on anticorrelated assets for your stock portfolio,
> better look at Treasuries, gold & commodities, short positions,
> managed futures, etc.