lbsterling's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/256498/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/178383-alpha-vs-beta?source=feed#comment-808443 808443 I always thought it didn't make sense to invest time in learning about more sophisticated strategies, or that they wouldn't be available to me (due to broker limitations or lack of smarts).
But I have never seriously tried to find out, and maybe it'd be worth the while in the long run.
The allure of being able to invest without much concern about what the market as a whole does _ that's a beta question _ is huge.]]> Wed, 16 Dec 2009 11:22:41 -0500 I always thought it didn't make sense to invest time in learning about more sophisticated strategies, or that they wouldn't be available to me (due to broker limitations or lack of smarts).
But I have never seriously tried to find out, and maybe it'd be worth the while in the long run.
The allure of being able to invest without much concern about what the market as a whole does _ that's a beta question _ is huge.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177246-contrarianism-the-new-consensus?source=feed#comment-797428 797428 Listen to the crowd, listen to the contrarians, but think for yourself.]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:15:44 -0500 Listen to the crowd, listen to the contrarians, but think for yourself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163192-the-stealth-commodity-index?source=feed#comment-690363 690363 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 02:43:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149625-bank-earnings-revenues-falling-losses-rising?source=feed#comment-593631 593631 Sun, 19 Jul 2009 09:25:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118400-global-ship-lease-cash-flow-more-important-than-dividends?source=feed#comment-592404 592404 The dividend is safe, shares are undervalued at $2, etc.
Any plans for an update of this article?]]> Fri, 17 Jul 2009 16:01:19 -0400 The dividend is safe, shares are undervalued at $2, etc.
Any plans for an update of this article?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116455-global-ship-lease-undervalued-and-undiscovered?source=feed#comment-592403 592403 The dividend is safe, shares are undervalued at $2, etc.
Any plans for an update of this article?]]> Fri, 17 Jul 2009 16:00:34 -0400 The dividend is safe, shares are undervalued at $2, etc.
Any plans for an update of this article?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142169-green-gold-trumps-black-gold?source=feed#comment-539304 539304
I don't intend this as a petty (or paranoid) remark, but I don't trust the UN figures.

Something must be misleadingly or at least badly understated about how much is being invested in fossil fuel generation; the major oil companies alone spend more than $120B in investment annually on developing oil fields.

I understand the growth trend in sustainable energy investment is what's important here, but I think it's important to do a 'reality check' on a claim of such a major shift.]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:43:13 -0400
I don't intend this as a petty (or paranoid) remark, but I don't trust the UN figures.

Something must be misleadingly or at least badly understated about how much is being invested in fossil fuel generation; the major oil companies alone spend more than $120B in investment annually on developing oil fields.

I understand the growth trend in sustainable energy investment is what's important here, but I think it's important to do a 'reality check' on a claim of such a major shift.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141464-citigroup-to-increase-common-stock-government-to-reduce-spending-are-they-serious?source=feed#comment-533062 533062
So yes, they will raise, and yes, "Splat" for housing and the markets.

The only other option is the Fed as sole buyer for treasuries, and that would mean mega-inflation and dollar collapse.

More likely is that they'll try to walk the line: slight rate increases AND heavier Fed buying of treasuries etc, leading to some inflation (who knows how much) AND more recession (who knows how much).

Stagflation is the best case scenario.

It's a wing and a prayer right now and the Fed has no good options.]]> Fri, 05 Jun 2009 03:46:27 -0400
So yes, they will raise, and yes, "Splat" for housing and the markets.

The only other option is the Fed as sole buyer for treasuries, and that would mean mega-inflation and dollar collapse.

More likely is that they'll try to walk the line: slight rate increases AND heavier Fed buying of treasuries etc, leading to some inflation (who knows how much) AND more recession (who knows how much).

Stagflation is the best case scenario.

It's a wing and a prayer right now and the Fed has no good options.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140730-back-to-an-almost-record-curve?source=feed#comment-527097 527097 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:00:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140411-dangers-of-a-dollar-collapse?source=feed#comment-525198 525198
However, I think you are either disingenuous or naive in suggesting that all the countries of the world holding dollars would try to dump them at once.

Instead, the central banks of countries holding dollars have almost certainly agreed with the Fed in intervene in a coordinated way to slow a dollar disintegation.

"Wal Mart...would be the first to go under."

Wrong and fear-mongering. China has no interest in seeing the dollar collapse and choke off its sales to WalMart / exports to the U.S.

If a dollar correction is inevitable _ as has seemed the case, although until recently it was failing to materialize _ the interest of dollar-holding countries is to ensure that it happens gradually in order to give producers *some* time to adjust to the new situation.]]> Sun, 31 May 2009 12:25:58 -0400
However, I think you are either disingenuous or naive in suggesting that all the countries of the world holding dollars would try to dump them at once.

Instead, the central banks of countries holding dollars have almost certainly agreed with the Fed in intervene in a coordinated way to slow a dollar disintegation.

"Wal Mart...would be the first to go under."

Wrong and fear-mongering. China has no interest in seeing the dollar collapse and choke off its sales to WalMart / exports to the U.S.

If a dollar correction is inevitable _ as has seemed the case, although until recently it was failing to materialize _ the interest of dollar-holding countries is to ensure that it happens gradually in order to give producers *some* time to adjust to the new situation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140189-remind-me-again-what-s-a-bubble?source=feed#comment-522721 522721 That the problem was mispriced debt rather than too much debt has the ring of truth.

But top to bottom I'd say your further analysis has too many flaws to be useful.

"Under this analysis, it would simply cost more as investors demand higher interest. And if so, what does that say about corporate earnings? Answer? Well, there is none. If consumers have to spend more on interest, maybe they borrow less and buy fewer things."

Higher interest rates during a downturn will be crushing, that's the "checkmate" scenario. Corporations will have trouble financing investments, and consumers, as you yourself suggest in the quote, won't be able to consume until deleveraging has run its course.

Hence the Fed's efforts to keep rates low.

Further, I think it's say that the relationship between yields and the S&P in the past 10 years is not going to be very useful for what happens in the next 10 years.

Finally, someone else above pointed out, a lot of the money IS gone _ and the Fed is working hard to re-create it, with results that are as yet unknown.

So thanks again for the article _ I will be curious to see how your thinking develops.]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 09:33:40 -0400 That the problem was mispriced debt rather than too much debt has the ring of truth.

But top to bottom I'd say your further analysis has too many flaws to be useful.

"Under this analysis, it would simply cost more as investors demand higher interest. And if so, what does that say about corporate earnings? Answer? Well, there is none. If consumers have to spend more on interest, maybe they borrow less and buy fewer things."

Higher interest rates during a downturn will be crushing, that's the "checkmate" scenario. Corporations will have trouble financing investments, and consumers, as you yourself suggest in the quote, won't be able to consume until deleveraging has run its course.

Hence the Fed's efforts to keep rates low.

Further, I think it's say that the relationship between yields and the S&P in the past 10 years is not going to be very useful for what happens in the next 10 years.

Finally, someone else above pointed out, a lot of the money IS gone _ and the Fed is working hard to re-create it, with results that are as yet unknown.

So thanks again for the article _ I will be curious to see how your thinking develops.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140140-fall-in-u-s-credit-costs-is-most-significant-economic-development?source=feed#comment-521118 521118
I was paying attention, but I'm still not sure I got it right...]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 10:02:43 -0400
I was paying attention, but I'm still not sure I got it right...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139751-what-will-the-winds-of-change-bring?source=feed#comment-519149 519149 GS) and in the U.S. civil service has made him a slave to the system, and his perspective and understanding of the global financial crises is either extremely limited, in which case his intentions remain noble and just, yet shortsighted and underpowered, or complete and comprehensive, and thus imperialistic and oligarchic."

Flowery prose doesn't strengthen your case.]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 06:44:52 -0400 GS) and in the U.S. civil service has made him a slave to the system, and his perspective and understanding of the global financial crises is either extremely limited, in which case his intentions remain noble and just, yet shortsighted and underpowered, or complete and comprehensive, and thus imperialistic and oligarchic."

Flowery prose doesn't strengthen your case.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138213-the-unintended-effects-of-bad-policy?source=feed#comment-508157 508157
Yes, that clarifies things. Whereas the carry trade always has an element of currency risk, as interest rates approach zero everywhere, it's pure currency risk.

Why not just cut out the middleman and speculate in currency?

I know that one vision of the future says buy Australian dollars and Rand and watch as everything else implodes, but frankly I'm not planning to bet the farm on that scenario.


On May 18 08:33 AM manya05 wrote:

> lbsterling, all the speculator has to do now is borrow at zero interest
> in dollars, just carry it to a currency that is not being debased
> as much (even if it pays 0%), and just wait. The carry trade does
> not even need to be invested in shares, any currency healthier than
> the dollar will do.]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 10:21:17 -0400
Yes, that clarifies things. Whereas the carry trade always has an element of currency risk, as interest rates approach zero everywhere, it's pure currency risk.

Why not just cut out the middleman and speculate in currency?

I know that one vision of the future says buy Australian dollars and Rand and watch as everything else implodes, but frankly I'm not planning to bet the farm on that scenario.


On May 18 08:33 AM manya05 wrote:

> lbsterling, all the speculator has to do now is borrow at zero interest
> in dollars, just carry it to a currency that is not being debased
> as much (even if it pays 0%), and just wait. The carry trade does
> not even need to be invested in shares, any currency healthier than
> the dollar will do.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138213-the-unintended-effects-of-bad-policy?source=feed#comment-507968 507968
The future is very hazy.

]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 08:06:49 -0400
The future is very hazy.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135566-jim-welsh-on-the-economy-past-the-point-of-no-return?source=feed#comment-491548 491548 Wed, 06 May 2009 08:14:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135580-sell-in-may-and-buy-in-may?source=feed#comment-491534 491534 Wed, 06 May 2009 07:59:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135331-don-t-be-fooled-we-ve-been-here-before?source=feed#comment-489881 489881 Tue, 05 May 2009 08:16:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135050-google-vs-ap-saber-rattling?source=feed#comment-488803 488803
The AP is the original journalism, that's the point.

It's strange, someone of your background would not know and understand that.

Embarrassing that the AP can't get someone on the horn to talk to you though.
]]> Mon, 04 May 2009 12:16:54 -0400
The AP is the original journalism, that's the point.

It's strange, someone of your background would not know and understand that.

Embarrassing that the AP can't get someone on the horn to talk to you though.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131506-cnn-misses-the-point-about-tea-parties?source=feed#comment-467059 467059
That reporter looked pretty professional to me, challenging the guy who was getting into a lengthy rant to get to the point.

It's humorous that you place yourself above the partisan fray but call CNN "left wing."

I think most people of my generation just see them as mainstream.
]]> Fri, 17 Apr 2009 16:17:11 -0400
That reporter looked pretty professional to me, challenging the guy who was getting into a lengthy rant to get to the point.

It's humorous that you place yourself above the partisan fray but call CNN "left wing."

I think most people of my generation just see them as mainstream.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129489-faber-and-schiff-inflation-inevitable-so-here-s-what-to-do?source=feed#comment-454457 454457
Take the 4 pct and be happy with having financed at one of the best rates seen by your generation.

Spend your time thinking about other things and don't worry about getting the 'perfect' rate (which will require a mix of luck and perfect timing).

My 2 cents.]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 04:34:08 -0400
Take the 4 pct and be happy with having financed at one of the best rates seen by your generation.

Spend your time thinking about other things and don't worry about getting the 'perfect' rate (which will require a mix of luck and perfect timing).

My 2 cents.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127201-bernanke-desperate-fed-out-of-ammo?source=feed#comment-435676 435676
Of course the U.S. did it in the 1940s and you yourself say one paragraph later :
"Japan tried this in 1991, and their economy has never recovered."

Why should we listen to anything else you say when you are ignorant of history and self-contradictory?


]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 15:46:09 -0400
Of course the U.S. did it in the 1940s and you yourself say one paragraph later :
"Japan tried this in 1991, and their economy has never recovered."

Why should we listen to anything else you say when you are ignorant of history and self-contradictory?


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126000-luckiest-generation-in-history-young-americans?source=feed#comment-426277 426277
It's true that the relative price of many products, and especially durable consumer products, have fallen in real terms due to the wonders of industrialization.

An interesting exercise, in the context of a world of fiat currencies, is to think of the current crisis as partly a crisis of relative valuations.

Housing prices are collapsing, and commodity prices did too at first _ but are now stabilizing.

As prices of all things regain some semblance of "stability" _ probably at an inflated level _ at some point in the future, what things are still truly undervalued?

This is the big picture to have in mind while considering investment decisions in the future, in my opinion.



]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 09:29:54 -0400
It's true that the relative price of many products, and especially durable consumer products, have fallen in real terms due to the wonders of industrialization.

An interesting exercise, in the context of a world of fiat currencies, is to think of the current crisis as partly a crisis of relative valuations.

Housing prices are collapsing, and commodity prices did too at first _ but are now stabilizing.

As prices of all things regain some semblance of "stability" _ probably at an inflated level _ at some point in the future, what things are still truly undervalued?

This is the big picture to have in mind while considering investment decisions in the future, in my opinion.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124016-no-bottom-in-sight?source=feed#comment-412226 412226
I think you jumped the gun on SSO, though _ surely an oversold bounce is coming Wednesday?

We'll find out in a few hours...]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 05:29:22 -0500
I think you jumped the gun on SSO, though _ surely an oversold bounce is coming Wednesday?

We'll find out in a few hours...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123916-ag-energy-lead-way-in-commodities-fall?source=feed#comment-412223 412223 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 05:26:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118741-ambrose-evans-pritchard-are-we-really-nearing-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-376978 376978
Somewhere around subparagraph 47...]]> Thu, 05 Feb 2009 11:15:32 -0500
Somewhere around subparagraph 47...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116667-the-curious-case-of-the-stubborn-market-leaders?source=feed#comment-367564 367564 Tue, 27 Jan 2009 10:54:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115695-contrasting-china-now-to-the-u-s-in-1929?source=feed#comment-362761 362761
A question about the penultimate sentence of the article:

"China does not have a currency mismatch risk worth bothering about."

I've always understood that China's currency is 40 percent or more undervalued in relation to the dollar _ amounting to a subsidy on exports _ or is that not what you mean?]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 07:01:16 -0500
A question about the penultimate sentence of the article:

"China does not have a currency mismatch risk worth bothering about."

I've always understood that China's currency is 40 percent or more undervalued in relation to the dollar _ amounting to a subsidy on exports _ or is that not what you mean?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115517-when-banks-fall-down-and-go-boom?source=feed#comment-361077 361077 Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:09:00 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114798-oecd-noted-economic-slowdown-doesn-t-bode-well-for-commodities?source=feed#comment-355712 355712 National Bank Financial chief economist and strategist Stéfane Marion
is wrong, we will never hear of him again.]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 13:22:16 -0500 National Bank Financial chief economist and strategist Stéfane Marion
is wrong, we will never hear of him again.]]>