lbsterling

Citigroup to Increase Common Stock, Government to Reduce Spending - Are They Serious?

You'd lose 10 percent of your net worth on that bet, because Hoenig is right: rates are going to have to rise or else there will be no buyers for U.S. treasuries.

So yes, they will raise, and yes, "Splat" for housing and the markets.

The only other option is the Fed as sole buyer for treasuries, and that would mean mega-inflation and dollar collapse.

More likely is that they'll try to walk the line: slight rate increases AND heavier Fed buying of treasuries etc, leading to some inflation (who knows how much) AND more recession (who knows how much).

Stagflation is the best case scenario.

It's a wing and a prayer right now and the Fed has no good options.

Bernanke Desperate, Fed Out of Ammo

You say the Fed buying long bonds "has only ever been done in third world countries before the US did it this week, and the UK did it last week."

Of course the U.S. did it in the 1940s and you yourself say one paragraph later :
"Japan tried this in 1991, and their economy has never recovered."

Why should we listen to anything else you say when you are ignorant of history and self-contradictory?

Gold Even More Attractive as Cash Yields Approach 0%

Risk of theft, I mean.



On Jan 13 04:41 PM lbsterling wrote:

> "Gold has no risk"
> What about the risk of threat or cost of protecting it?
>
> In your world, gold goes up during inflation and up during deflation.
> When does it go down, actually?
>
> And if it just acts as a counterweight to inflation, where's the
> outperformance?
>
> I actually like gold as an investment but I don't think you made
> any intelligible argument for it in your article.

Gold Even More Attractive as Cash Yields Approach 0%

"Gold has no risk"
What about the risk of threat or cost of protecting it?

In your world, gold goes up during inflation and up during deflation. When does it go down, actually?

And if it just acts as a counterweight to inflation, where's the outperformance?

I actually like gold as an investment but I don't think you made any intelligible argument for it in your article.

Gold Futures' Dirty Secret (Part II)

hahaha Deepak is right.

The author reminds me of the bald guy in the movie "Princess Bride," overthinking everything 15 steps into the future.

People who think gold prices are going up buy/hold; those who think they are going to fall sell/short. That's the whole story.

After all the calculations, he's just saying physical supplies are scarce so prices will rise.