asleeper

Value vs. Price: Trade in Your Gold for Oil and Agriculture Futures

I've been thinking much along the same lines myself for several weeks.

Sold my gold in the mid-900s and my silver in the low 19s before the absolute highs, bought gold back in the low 800s and luckily sold again when it rallied back up into the high-800s and before gold and silver dropped off the cliff. Can't claim any genius there, just happened to trade out and stay out while they fell.

Started buying silver back gradually and averaged down, my average cost being about $12 now. Still haven't bought back into gold, worried that it will also drop like: silver, platinum, and palladium did. Platinum and palladium look very attractive at current prices, though, but I don't know the best way to invest in them.

So, I've started looking at oil, general metals and commodities ETFs, and the agricultural ETFs. Just took a small position in USO today. Will start looking harder at the commodities ETFs. Even with price deflation, I cannot see food prices dropping much. And, if the high future inflation scenario that so many are predicting plays out, food prices should be a safe bet to rise.

Who knows though? My general rule is the greater the certainty of the analyst, the more full of sh** they are. Sometimes common sense beats out the most sophisticated analysis, and sometimes the unexpected beats the he** out of common sense. You never know for sure.