asleeper

What Is Going On With Gold?

Oops, correction. Re: backwardation, the price of gold for immediate delivery exceeded future prices.

What Is Going On With Gold?

The “goldbug” club has been advocating an investment with the following track record in nine currencies.

GOLD ANNUAL CHANGE
USD AUD CAD CNY EUR INR JPY CHF GBF
2001 2.5% 11.3% 8.8% 2.5% 8.1% 5.8% 17.4% 5.0% 5.4%
2002 24.7% 13.5% 23.7% 24.8% 5.9% 24.0% 13.0% 3.9% 12.7%
2003 19.6% -10.5% -2.2% 19.5% -0.5% 13.5% 7.9% 7.0% 7.9%
2004 5.2% 1.4% -2.0% 5.2% -2.1% 0.0% 0.9% -3.0% -2.0%
2005 18.2% 25.6% 14.5% 15.2% 35.1% 22.8% 35.7% 36.2% 31.8%
2006 22.8% 14.4% 22.8% 18.8% 10.2% 20.5% 24.0% 13.9% 7.8%
2007 31.4% 18.6% 10.4% 23.0% 17.9% 17.5% 24.7% 21.5% 29.2%
2008 5.8% 32.5% 32.4% -1.1% 11.9% 30.4% -14.9% 0.2% 44.3%
AVG 16.3% 13.3% 13.6% 13.5% 10.8% 16.8% 13.6% 10.6% 17.1%

Any investment still returning an average of 10% – 17% percent after this past eight years is a winner in my book.

Regarding backwardation, it isn’t a theory, it is a fact due to a drawing down of physical inventory. So many people were taking delivery in December that the price of gold for immediate delivery dropped below the future prices.

“If you had told me in December of 2007 that the global stock market would fall 40% in 2008 I would have told you to buy gold and nothing else because of its safe haven characteristics.”

Any investment including gold requires attention be paid to the dynamics of: money, markets, and the economy. Broad trends are one thing; timing is another. The Nasdaq crashed in March, 2000, and the Fed did what it always does. It lowered interest rates and increased the money supply. But, gold did not jump right away. Gold was only up 2.5% in 2001. It takes a while for increases in the base money supply to manifest in broader measures of money supply, price inflation, and the price of gold. Don’t expect immediate results in 2009 until the credit freeze begins to thaw or foreign governments begin to dump dollar reserves.

”[Gold fell, and the dollar rose.] Why did this happen?”

The dollar rose in a counter-trend rally because the banking sector tightened credit and the market crashed. No credit meant businesses, hedge funds, and individual investors had to raise cash to operate and service existing debt. Weak investments were sold first, then stronger investments. Everything fell except cash and 5-10 year bonds. Gold fell as hedge funds sold stocks and futures to raise cash, but it fell less than most stocks. Forced selling led to demand for dollars, raising the value of the dollar. Gold is now still off its peak, but the only thing that outperformed gold year over year in 2008 was 5-10 year bonds.

Gold IS the anti-dollar, but it doesn’t rise on increased Fed Base Money supply alone. There must be evidence that the base money is finding its way into the economy via lending and multiplication due to fractional reserve banking. Currently, there is little evidence the base money increase is going anywhere except to bolster bank reserves, pay executive bonuses, and buy out other banks.

“When you buy gold you're essentially buying a hard asset currency with the hope that one day it will become the world's choice of currency again.”

Sort of, but not really. Gold need not ever become the world currency of choice to protect against several dangers. All that is required is that people remember gold is easily concealed, portable, a store of value and insurance against: inflation, loss of confidence in paper assets, and civil unrest.

So, your basic premise is basically correct, to understand where the price of gold is going, the dollar is important. But where is the dollar is going and when? That is the question. Right now, I would bet all paper currencies will see renewed inflation in the second half of 2009, but nothing in life is certain.

Value vs. Price: Trade in Your Gold for Oil and Agriculture Futures

I've been thinking much along the same lines myself for several weeks.

Sold my gold in the mid-900s and my silver in the low 19s before the absolute highs, bought gold back in the low 800s and luckily sold again when it rallied back up into the high-800s and before gold and silver dropped off the cliff. Can't claim any genius there, just happened to trade out and stay out while they fell.

Started buying silver back gradually and averaged down, my average cost being about $12 now. Still haven't bought back into gold, worried that it will also drop like: silver, platinum, and palladium did. Platinum and palladium look very attractive at current prices, though, but I don't know the best way to invest in them.

So, I've started looking at oil, general metals and commodities ETFs, and the agricultural ETFs. Just took a small position in USO today. Will start looking harder at the commodities ETFs. Even with price deflation, I cannot see food prices dropping much. And, if the high future inflation scenario that so many are predicting plays out, food prices should be a safe bet to rise.

Who knows though? My general rule is the greater the certainty of the analyst, the more full of sh** they are. Sometimes common sense beats out the most sophisticated analysis, and sometimes the unexpected beats the he** out of common sense. You never know for sure.