asleeper

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

It certainly was a very nice day. Silver did well all week. Also two PGM stocks: PAL and SWC. Even the commodities ETFs, DBB and DBC were up. Gold stocks turned up first, now commodities might be beginning to follow. Caution is warranted, though. This could just be a relief rally and optimism concerning what the new POTUS might be able to accomplish.


On Jan 02 07:28 PM aitvaras wrote:

> It is /was a really great day, the dollar went up, oil went up gold
> went down.
>
> I've pick a great day to enter my triple shorts, Good prices for
> them.
>
> Maybe oil goes to $50 next week, hope so. Gives me a chance to take
> a serious profit on DXO in my real time portfolio. Remember when
> oil spiked earlier, this is another spike to savage the shorts.

>
>
> IMO

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

Thank you for making specific and detailed predictions. Right or wrong it makes for more interesting discussion.

Oil could go as low as you said. The charts suggest it is possible. But, I'm betting the low is in or close to it for two reasons. Even if some people think oil could go as low as you say, $20-$30, I think most people expect it to rebound in 2009, just as you said. If they expect it to rebound to $45-$85 by the end of the year, why risk missing the opportunity to buy at $30-$35 and chasing the price up should it head back up early? Why not buy in at $30-$35 and add more if the price weakens. I think most people would see it that way and such an attitude will prevent the price from dropping all the way down to $20.

Also, historically the price has already dropped as much percentage-wise as it did after the 1970's oil crisis. To fall all the way to $20 would mean a much larger drop percentage-wise. It could happen, but if it does, it would confirm that that this recession/depression is as bad as you think.

To me, the opportunity to buy oil at $30-$35 now and probably double the investment in a year or two years at most seems like a very good bet. I bought USO at very close to $31 with about half the money I wished to dedicate to oil before Christmas. I'll hold the other half and see how it goes 1Q '09. If the price drops to $20, I'll buy more. If the price goes up and the future looks as bleak then as it does now, I'll sell and bet on a second big decline in the market to buy back in.

Thanks again for your predictions.