WPSPIKER

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

There is a lot of talk here about how incompetent the gov is how they continue to let the $ drop. And they are right in some word but the easing of 0 rates is on cue if you read and listen to what the fed has been saying. The rates will stay low only as long as it takes to get the economy running again properly, the value of the $ is not the main reason and those that are piling into gold up here are falling for the wall street BS again, it will drop (maybe not right now) and when it does it will be like the last good depression where the little guy was suckered into gold and the big guys dumped it de-valuing gold effectively stealing the $ from the little guys who cant get rid of it easily or quickly. With the fed already saying that they are going to leave interest rates low this means yes the $ will fall some but the stock market will keep going UP while the $ is falling, and in many cases faster than the price of gold, it will however not fall nearly as fast as gold will as once rates come up from ) deflation will stop inflation hopefully will not run rampant and if it does that means the markets will again rise even faster. Look to good DIV players in the markets, and companies who have exposure to overseas currencies such as the large food companies and even banks. they are going to be making a killing borrowing money at 0 and getting 4~7% returns as well as the real estate bottom pretty much in, the last thing that needs to happen is for our $ to drop enough to make our manufactured good cheaper abroad so we can again start producing something that someone else wants and we can sell it to them... Look at FORD, they are going to make a killing very soon as the price of a car in USA stays at say 25K USD, same car in Canada now is about 20% less for them to buy as our dollar value has dropped... They can buy the car for 20K, this trend is happening around the world soon our manufacturing base is going to start hiring people and then the bubble for these people buying foreign currencies and gold is going to burst... too bad the little guys will be in gold and foreign money when it happens...

Mark

Time to Bail on Shale?

I'm also interesting in seeing a bit more of the pipelines, NI has a good deal of them, while those such a APL (atlas) might also benefit in a much deserved boost in throughput of lower cost gas with higher usage. I'm looking into CPN (thanks for advice) it seems to be NEW to the game and does not yet pay dividends, (something I'm after for long term profit margins.) something like DPM (though they just did/doing an offering which may drop the stock back to place where getting in may make sense. they have run up too much in the last year (170%), perhaps a BWP ? good div and seems to be up 50=% this year. thanks again good read & good info. better than most of the recent DOOM SAYERS

Mark

On Nov 23 11:03 AM jarco wrote:

> What does this imply for pipeline companies? Notwithstanding line
> access and capacity restraints, doesn't this scenario bode well for
> consumption throughput?

GE Is David Hartzell's Highest Conviction Holding - Here's Why

There seems to be a big push that commercial real estate will be some huge explosive bomb waiting to blow up. So far this has not happened and in fact in many areas the push is just the opposite, contrary to popular belief the commercial side has been doing rather well... Not sure about GEs side but you might want to take a look at some of the earning statements from the large REETS and area malls.

I do own some GE and have been looking at getting some more as the price stays down near the 15 mark. Looking for STABLE long term play on earnings as the article states, it is often better to be sure to keep the money coming in slowly than risk loosing a lot of the green ya started with...

Mark

Time to Bail on Shale?

I wanted to know what the thoughts are on not the producers but the end users, Companies such as NiSource (NI) Duke energy (DUK) whom consume large volumes of gas as electricity generation as well as both has/have large increases of energy costs passed onto the end users through deregulation and government oked price increases. The lower net cost for them (NI & DUK) to buy gas and a higher price charged to the end users (individual home owners & small/medium sized businesses.) I think everyone can contend that HEDGED plays & Future prices are going to decrease with the glut we have in gas storage and spot prices will stay low for the foreseeable future per you're article. This would lead me to believe that the real play is in the sellers of gas to consumers be the gas used to produce electricity or actual heating of a home. What would be some other good plays on this idea? I like DUK & NI for not only that are still lagging slightly but pay a good DIV on top of that.

Thanks you for good info.

Mark M

5%+ Dividend Yields in the S&P 500

all good comments:

one thing I look at is if the company is REQUIRED by vast consumer bases, DUK and NI for example, (are two I own,) both are utilities but are diversified utilities, not just selling one thing to one group of people. say electricity or water or gas, but selling, transporting & servicing to end users as well as companies & government backed services. Both of them also have large areas that are under end user increases that will result in more free cash flows as the deregulation has helped them be able to raise rates as well as the cost of raw materials have dropped dramatically in last year. Their costs to consumers has increased. this means one thing BUY BUY BUY.
Mark

7 Dividend Stocks to Prove Buy-and-Hold Isn't Dead

I do have 2 portfolios like others a spec and a retirement.
I buy & hold good div plays in the IRA only and spec in the other, but also hold div plays in both. I have a good deal of GE, that has not been a good play YET but it is a long term play, in 5+ years I think most everyone can say it will be UP. 3M (MMM) , FCX, HON, are good div plays (though all are up a lot at this point so be careful on these) I was trying to pick up more HON and set price missed last week by about a nickel :( now up 3+ over that set price I had.)

I had ABB for a long term, the DIV is not the greatest and you have foreign taxes that rob a good bit of it.
I have some pretty good energy stocks that are down enough to buy & hold that are still paying good DIV, (NI, DUK) are MY 2 biggest holdings in utilities, as prices came down I picked up more. If you look into their actual business models these 2 companies are not just drillers/producers, they transport, and sell to end users. Both have rather nice boosts in end user costs in the pipelines ok to pass higher rate hikes on to the consumers all ok by the gov. this means that they (NI & DUK) should be starting to boost profits and hence will boost their stock prices and maybe boost their DIV as well.
not a buy & hold for DIV is below.
Watching around the area that seems interesting at this point is Shipping (FRO, FST, GMR, DRYS & EGLE) have been clobbered enough to buy & hold for medium to long term, though most held or stopped the divs, that is OK as these will increase in price 20~60% in next couple years pretty easy. (I didnt mention some shippers doing better as they have run up in last few days enough to stay away.)

Mark

Verizon's Droid Is the Real Deal

I can not comment on the APPL IPhone as I have not used one, as far as network support I do have VZ and have for a very long time, the Network in USA ia probably best going. I dont travel internationally but stateside you cant get better coverage and they are adding more towers daily and upping to 4 g speeds. that being said I dont know what Droid will be like and probably wont opt for one IF the cost is too high, What is wrong with the IPhone is that it costs too much and has the limited stateside service areas without roaming which can add more $ to monthly bill already high. I think that the new system will be good and it will take market share from IPhones how much will have to wait & see. but will be a good enough to start picking up some VZ which hasn't performed lately other than a nice DIV.
mark

Natural Gas Production Declines Are Becoming More Evident

With the production from NEW multi-direction drilling rigs the low count is nothing to worry about with the massive storage filled up and the less than bad temps and downed industrial production the nat gas prices are being held up by speculation is best that most people in the know can figure. UNG for example helps little guy get into the market and helps to prop up futures prices which effect pricing all around. While it UNG probably is not going to make anyone much money in near term and is too unpredictable for far term. best bet is not the producers either but transporters and end users who will be biggest benefits in next few years with down prices for the product of NG. Look to gas pipe line companies who get paid for the amount that moves through the lines and those that benefit from selling the gas to end users, there are several good ones who pay great dividends with solid earning to support them as well as most of them have rate increases to the ave home user on books and approved through state/local gov and once the price is increased you know they will not claw back that trend... Look to elec. utilities who have NG as a feed in raw material to produce electricity as well. I own NI, DUK, FST, VLO and recently took profits and got out of CHK....
my well meaning advice and not an expert would be to look at as many similar companies as you like, do home work prior to jumping into anything right now as utilities and pipe line companies are lagging overall markets but that is good as it leaves more room for them to go up and less room to drop. Cyclicals are hot at the moment but there is lots of volatility in them. Producers are going to have a pull back real soon I think and the utility/defensive sectors will hold firm and maybe start to rise at a better rate and catch up to the overall market place.

mark

Dividend Increases: 9 Stocks

One thing is some companies are not in the GROWTH business such as utilities, NI or DUK both of which I own are good Dividend paying companies but the growth is not from buying other companies but from population and increases in the rates they charge customers as well as acquiring other smaller companies. DUK has been buying companies like crazy expanding it's ALT ENERGY mindset, where as NI has been sticking to their core business. Both of these any many other companies pay much better dividends than those above, save one that is at/near its all time high as well as of fridays at its year high and in this economy buying ANYTHING at its all time/year high is not wise...

I still believe in buy & hold but with a dont stick your head in the sand mentality...
mark


On Sep 19 09:48 AM Crude Oil Trader wrote:

> My years of being a business owner/CEO myself has ruined my mind
> set when it comes to trading/investing in companies that offer large
> dividends. I will always have to question and doubt a company that
> doesn't know how to use capitol to grow a company. And if youy believe
> buy and hold is dead, what is the sense? Check out this great trading
> video "The Buy and Hold Myth.....Is Buy and Hold Back" > tinyurl.com/mgzezn

Solar: Energy's New Growth Sector

What I didnt see in any of the info above was who will be helping to transmit the energy be it solar or wind. DUK for example has tons of WIND farms, now why they have not started adding SOLAR in the same fields I dont know, (or maybe they have) as DUK reports to be such a large proponent of renewable energy. I do own DUK in my portfolios just to make it known, while there are a few other energy supply companies none seem to be really pushing the renewable sector much.
There are also other manufactures who were not mentioned that have great process for thin film components such as ESLR, (evergreen solar) where cost per watt is still higher than some but the systems are less materials overall and we all are seeing what is happening to materials and what happened last year when companies could not get any silicon to build panels with if & when the demand & all the gov. subsidies come back we may/will probably again see the peak be held back due to raw materials more than actual solar cell production. Other play would be to look at WHO supplies the glass for the solar panels. (GLW) corning maybe I dont own any of them but they could be a more global play? I dont know but again think outside the box as to who would be involved in the overall picture. sure the pure solar company plays are good but with the amount of them out there finding THE ONE is not going to be easy...

mark

UNG: The Best Way to Invest in Natural Gas

sorry but I still see no fundamentals that support the rise in Nat Gas prices or UNG, while CHK has a great deal of hedged plays they are due to run out as well as the near full wells, forecast warmer than ave winter I think that anyone buying in needs to use options as I can see it dropping faster than it has rallied...

mark

Despite Dedicated ETFs, No Reliable Way to Play Natural Gas

I have been investing in other areas where Nat Gas is used, transported or sold to end users, not so much the producers as others have said the producers are going to fast be in a corner, limiting production down to keep supply at the area it already is, east coast reserves are nearly full. I would look at pipeline holding/transportation companies they are paid based on how much they send down the line, their costs for transmitting are down and getting lower the major costs are NEW pipelines and maintenance. Two good names are (NI) Ni Holdings and (DUK) Duke Energy both have a diversified company structure and hold areas that are very profitable now with lower energy cost to THEM yet they are able to continue to charge the higher retail costs to the ave consumer. look for their profits to get better much faster as supply contracts run out. while larger producers like (CHK) Chesapeake have sold future gas prices these are starting to run out and Nat Gas with the GLUT we have the chances of locking in good profit margin contracts are over. most producers only have a 8~24 month futures contracts and anyone that will buying Nat Gas at volume will be shopping for best rates if not already doing so...

Mark m

UNG Trading 101

Fridays close of $9.54 for UNG is still pretty high vs the underlaying cost of NG at this point. While I want to get into the play as a long term investment I'm not positive that the bottom has been put in at this point it may bounce as shorts start to cover but the risk to reward without being able to understand the "options trading" above is attempting to trade without the options. This is what the average investor does and this is how the hedge funds end up with most of the little guys money. Where will the fund be in 6 weeks, 6 months or 6 years.? this may depend on too many things not the least of which is all the talk in/by Fed/Congress about futures trading that has been going on as of late. Will there even be futures trading in 6 months with this constantly changing government we have? who knows... I'm willing to bet we are close to a bottom for UNG but I am not wiling to risk my capital on this GOV. not to mention that the GOV. will probably end up with the profits through taxation & fees even if UNG does go up I dont think you will get to keep much more than 20% of the PROFIT if/when it does go up by the time the TAX man is done...

Mark

Joy Global Surprised by China but Remains Wary of 'Bumping Along the Bottom'

I do own some (JOYG) as the company is making money while they did state that 2010/2011 may see less sales that statement I'm sure is based on the current level of sales and current level of the economy. The current levels are not going to stay depressed for even and should turn even better later in 2009/early2010 and the rather good climb of spot prices in raw materials. I think they may have guided lower as overly cautious. Their earnings calls over last few quarters seem to be more pessimistic than optimistic for global recovery. Something I would normally not expect from average company but that seems to be Joy Globals view.

Mark

Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out

the biggest problem with CHK is the people who are giving away share holders money into their own pockets...
if/when they stop doing that it will be a company worth investing in again.. Until then the STOCK will remain broken but not the company.

mark