themackattack's Comments

Accenture (ACN) severs its ties with Tiger: "Given the circumstances of the last two weeks, after careful consideration and analysis, the company has determined that he is no longer the right representative for its advertising."

Sun, 13 Dec 2009 16:30:39 -0500

Well, that settles it. Accenture is on my black list as far as hiring consultancies. I don't need a partner like them.

Even with 10% unemployment, there's no shortage of demand for foreign hires. This year's quota of 65,000 H-1B visas is all but exhausted, less than three months into the government's fiscal year.

Sun, 13 Dec 2009 10:49:05 -0500

If you think H1B's are paid the same as American's, you are wrong. Not only do they take jobs American's could fill, it has an impact on the wages of American's filling the same jobs.

This is not right wing propaganda. The fundamental issue is not necessarily that immigrants are coming here and getting jobs -- it's that its being done in a fraudulent manner that is less favorable to the immigrant and unfavorable to American's. The nature of the H1B contract and program is itself the problem.

Immigration has long been an important source of talent and growth for America, but it was not done under the falsities of the H1B program. At the end of the day, the H1B program is simply a corporate subsidy at the expense of workers.

Even with 10% unemployment, there's no shortage of demand for foreign hires. This year's quota of 65,000 H-1B visas is all but exhausted, less than three months into the government's fiscal year.

Sat, 12 Dec 2009 18:48:28 -0500

Don't let anyone fool you -- there are plenty of americans already capable of doing these jobs. Only problem is, they will want american wages.

Believe me, the main reason companies want these H1B's so badly is you get the skills at a much cheaper price than if you had to buy American.

It's a travesty that, with 10% unemployment, we let companies import cheap talent.

Take it from someone who knows...Working in technology, Ive worked with and employed quite a few of these folks.

Another funny thing -- companies are supposed to prove they have "searched for an American to do the job" before they can get an H1B approval. In my experience, that usually consisted of putting a want ad in a newspaper somewhere just to fulfill the legal requirement. When was the last time you saw a software developer pick up their local newspaper and search the want ads for a job?

On Dec 12 06:39 PM somecatchyphrase wrote:

> Some of the stimulus money should be spent training Americans to
> do these jobs.
>
> The greatest tragedy of all the various stimulus programs is the
> way the money is being spent on completely useless programs and projects.
> If it's a given that we're going to spend all this money, it should
> at least go toward something useful and productive. Job training
> or alternative energy would be far better than ridiculous programs
> such as cash for clunkers.

Alcoa (AA): FQ2 EPS of -$0.26 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $4.2B (-41%) vs. $3.9B. Shares -0.5% AH. (PR) Updated 7:10 p.m.: Shares +4.4% AH.

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 20:37:43 -0400

Its kinda funny how right i was here...also, for me at least, it was obvious at the time. People here are so blinded by their pessimism.

On Jul 08 04:27 PM themackattack wrote:

> This will herald a new upsurge in the market. While people have
> been looking at the "head and shoulders" formation that recently
> formed, they should have been viewing the recent market weakness
> as a "dip" that needed to be bought.

Market Rally Exaggerates Reality - Gluskin Sheff

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 19:50:30 -0400

This market will keep going up until it is given a reason not to. It is difficult to say what the catalyst will be, but I don't expect any significant sell-off until there is one.

Personally, I plan to ride the bull until the start of Q3 earnings season, and then get very cautious. It will be disappointing earnings that slow this train down, due to valuation concerns.

Prior to that, only a fool would short.

Alcoa (AA): FQ2 EPS of -$0.26 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $4.2B (-41%) vs. $3.9B. Shares -0.5% AH. (PR) Updated 7:10 p.m.: Shares +4.4% AH.

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 16:27:59 -0400

This will herald a new upsurge in the market. While people have been looking at the "head and shoulders" formation that recently formed, they should have been viewing the recent market weakness as a "dip" that needed to be bought.

Are the mutual-fund investors who are pouring money back into emerging markets, junk bonds and volatile energy a) trying to make up for losses, b) chasing performance, c) headed for a big fall?

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 20:51:10 -0400

could it be that, with imminent destruction off the table and the vix at a reasonable level, buy and hold investors are simply buying the assets that will appreciate most significantly over the next 10+ years (irrespective of their recent impressive gains)?

naaa, couldn't be...

The macro economic conditions that preceded the Argentinian collapse in 2001 - when foreign investors lost confidence in the government and refused to roll over short-term bonds - are astonishingly similar to the U.S. today.

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 18:38:20 -0400

Ok, similar, save one absolutely over-the-top critical point -- Argentina is not the United States. The US Dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and until proven otherwise, the US is the leading "safe-haven" during times of economic trouble for people the world over. This was conclusively demonstrated 4 months ago when people thought the world was going to implode, and Treasuries performed incredibly.

Otherwise, yes, conditions are identical. Do you really think the results will be?

Natural Resources Out, Non-Cyclical Blue Chips In

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 20:05:37 -0400

For the last few years I have come across, from time to time, investment strategy articles that draw their guidance from the past, and that suggest "valuation methodologies will return to past practices."

One day one of these articles will be proven correct -- P/E's will lower, valuation based on cash flow, profitability and value will become of primary importance, etc.

Maybe this is indeed that time. Maybe this is finally the turning point back to fundamentals based investing that reigned prior to the 80's. It just might be...

BUT, that is an investment bet that goes against the trend and against the last 20+ years of market history. It is an outlier bet, at best. While it may prove true, and this article may prove prescient, it is not a high percentage bet, and market dynamics over the last 20 years would suggest it to be an unlikely outcome.

John Hussman: Context Matters

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 20:24:00 -0400

Read this twice -- as far as I can see you said we could trade in a range, we could break down below March lows, or we could begin a steady rise. Apparently you will wait to see which is going to happen and then take a position to profit accordingly. We must be thankful that we have the ever-nebulous "market internals" to guide our decision making on this point...

Sentiment Overview: Bulls Rushing in at Alarming Rate

Sun, 07 Jun 2009 18:59:14 -0400

Whether this rally was based on sound fundamentals or not is almost moot at this point. The reality is this rally came at just the right time, and appears to be of an adequate duration to bridge the gap until some effects of the stimulus plan start to show.

The stimulus doesn't get much discussion any more. A near trillion dollar investment by the government is bound to show a measurable impact on the economy, and when it does it is likely to be perceived as a continuance of the recovery that is perceived to have started in early '09.

Personally, I think we've entered a great economic decline that will see a continuance of the market downtrend. BUT, I do believe we could see the market rally for the remainder of '09 and much of '10 as a result of the stimulus impact. Probably sometime in 2010 further credit problems will materialize and the downtrend will resume.

All You Need to Know about the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit

Sat, 23 May 2009 08:53:39 -0400

I would probably go ahead and buy a house if it weren't for the income cap limits. Seems like a silly thing to put a cap on if you are trying to incentivize people to take the leap and a risk during a declining market.

I thought the purpose was to incentivize with the aim of helping the housing market, not so much just to subsidize lower income people.

Oh well...guess I will just rent for another year until prices are even better.

Inflation Can Be Terrifying

Mon, 18 May 2009 20:38:35 -0400

Good god what a bad day to be short India...hope your portfolio allocation wasn't too significant!

Past Years Most Correlated with 2009

Tue, 05 May 2009 15:26:04 -0400

Most important near term aspect of this comparison is the pullback both comp years suffered after the March/April rally.

May see something similar near term here...

Housing: Objects in the Mirror May Appear Closer than They Are

Tue, 05 May 2009 08:08:37 -0400

Maybe true, but soon is relative. There is so much pent up inventory that prices are likely to still decline for 6 months or more, even if its starting to turn.

So the impact on the equities markets may be soon, the best time to buy housing is probably still a ways off.

Global Stock Market Valuations: Patience Is a Virtue

Mon, 04 May 2009 20:48:37 -0400

Is it safe to say then that Cetin and Jorb and indeed the same characters?

On May 04 03:24 PM Jorb wrote:

> That's why I'm cherry picking the best stocks that benefit from global
> growth such as MA POT and Google, as opposed to buying an index.
>

Wall of Waiting Cash Could Drive Equities Higher

Sat, 02 May 2009 21:01:56 -0400

dollar cost averaging is a smart entry strategy, but the notion that it is a good strategy when applied mindlessly (e.g. consistently without regard to any additional factors) is a fallacy. It works best when the market is priced attractively or is in a down-trend.

On May 02 08:05 PM VennData wrote:

> Folks who say "money on the sidelines" do not understand money.

>
> Folks who do or don't "bet a recession is coming" and invest that
> way will have to make numerous correct guesses for the rest of their
> lives to beat the indexes. It defies logic they will outperform
> consistently.
>
> Sit tight, dollar cost average in, rebalance... anything else is
> speculation.

Wall of Waiting Cash Could Drive Equities Higher

Sat, 02 May 2009 20:58:41 -0400

The market appears "overbought" in the classic sense, and who wouldn't think it a bad time to buy after one of the largest two-month rallies in history. I have to admit that my expectation was to see some profit taking after such a monumental rally, and I was positioning myself to capitalize through some short positions.

But then I began to see things through a different prism of potential. First, let me start by saying that I believe it is a bit "contrarian" to be bullish at this point, precisely because the market has risen so much and so quickly. In some ways a continued bullish move would surprise us all because it would be historically inconsistent (and, therefore, contrarian).

We have to remember what the context is for this substantial rally -- and that is the second most severe decrease in the US stock market in history, at a pace that exceeds nearly every previous decline. Further, the decrease the market suffered from Jan 2009 to March 2009 was particularly severe, and neared catastrophic levels (failure of annuity companies, pension funds etc). The reality is the market was priced in late February as if the American economic system was on the verge of collapse.

Over the last two months it has become very clear that the American economy is not on the verge of immediate collapse (I'm not saying it won't collapse in the next few years). This realization has driven the market up rapidly, and justifiably so. Now, why would the market continue to go up after such an extreme rally? Well, quite simply the market has moved from a pricing level that reflected an expectation of economic collapse to a market level that presupposes a continued extremely severe recession. If economic statistics should begin to show recovery at all (and some are beginning to) we will quickly see the market priced at a new level, one that is more consistent with normal recessions or post-recession recovery.

People are so consumed by the magnitude of the current market appreciation, but when looked at in the context of the extreme magnitude of the recent decline, one can argue that we've only reached equilibrium as opposed to being "overbought". There is more to being truly "overbought" than just what the technical indicators might be saying.

Lastly, I believe that this bullish trend and recent rally has probably bridged the gap to the point in time where we begin to see the government's economic stimulus begin to have a significant impact. If you don't think nearly a trillion dollars of economic stimulus is going to at least create the appearance of recovery, you are mistaken. It's likely that the recent imaginary "green-shoots" will lead to stimulus created "green leaves".

I don't know what will happen in 2010 and beyond, but I will be positioning myself for at least a short - term market bounce to Dow 10k within 2009.

Oil Inventory Nears a 20-Year High: Does It Matter?

Fri, 01 May 2009 19:57:27 -0400

I have to believe that commodities, oil included, ultimately must be driven by supply and demand. So far, it has proven untrue in the case of oil. At this point, I'm assuming a market driven assumption that the summer will drive up oil and gas demand.

By June I will either be vindicated or will join the other side.

Real Estate: Rentals and Sales Prices Out of Sync

Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:35:43 -0400

This chart is interesting, but imperfectly drawn to draw a more accurate conclusion. If one extended the two trendlines out with the same slope/trajectory they are currently on, it would suggest that housing will fall another 10% by 2011, +/- 5%.

Still a significant additional drop, but only half what is depicted here....

Mr. Roubini, Please Take a Seat

Sun, 26 Apr 2009 21:08:16 -0400

My question is how does this drivel get published here. Sorry, but I'll skip getting info from the "Good News eCONomist" in the midst of a recession/depression. It's this half ass type of analysis and damn near outright fraud that got us all into this predicament in the first place.

And, Oh, by the way, seeing Cetin the Cretin is your primary fanboi is really all one needs to know to understand the value in your writing.

Frankly, everyone on here who is pumping some sort of uber-bullish scenario is obviously pushing a personal agenda for their own gain. I know it, you know it, and everyone else knows it.

Yes, there has been some deceleration in the pace of economic decline, but the big question is whether that is temporary leading to a renewed decline, or at best the beginnings of a long-term economic malaise.

We all know, and by "we" I mean absolutely everyone, that the best case scenario for this economy is to flatten out into a long term coma drowned in large scale public debt. That's the best case - the odds are just as good that we see continued significant decline as the housing market bottoms over the next two years (followed then by a coma of 5 to 10 years).

The process of deleveraging is a slow one -- as of now everyone knows the economy is going to continue to contract; however ,its baked into the models and prices. Only when it becomes clear that deflationary declines will outpace current projections will the market begin its next leg down. That very well could mean a sideways market until late 2009, and then a significant continued decline.

N

Why Jim Rogers and Robert Shiller Aren't Buying U.S. Stocks Yet

Sun, 26 Apr 2009 20:53:01 -0400

Jasper,

I do believe you hit the nail on the head with your description of Goldilocks...

TMA

On Apr 26 07:50 PM Jasper M wrote:

> JohnFC: probably chewing gum, and unflushed public toilets. (seriously,
> do you need a reason to run from NY?)
> What do you suppose a Goldilocks Zombie would look like? I am guessing
> a trifle chubby, and unshaven . . .

Why We Shorted the QQQQ

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 21:50:24 -0400

What is the point of this Thumbs Down button if someone accruing 1000 Thumbs Down points doesn't get permanently silenced/muted?? (and you know whom I speak of)

Brett Arends thinks a covered-call options strategy might be just what the doctor ordered for today's turbulent markets: "Any buy-write or covered-call fund is going to underperform the stock market during a bull market. But after what you've been through, do you really care?"

Mon, 20 Apr 2009 19:20:47 -0400

Yes, but in this market why not take it a step further and add in a married put for the full Collar? With this volatility the collar is gold, and requires a lot less "market timing"...

How Long Can the Divergence Between Quantitative, Qualitative Trends Continue?

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 19:19:14 -0400

That's weird -- so many have been predicting a "Three-Little-Pigs" based economy, so this "Goldilocks" call is indeed befuddling.

Then again, I have seen many call for a general "Mother Goose" malaise over the next 3-5 years.

It is indeed difficult to know which will come to pass.

It's a Recovery, But Not as We Know It

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 17:59:06 -0400

Excellent article Sean -- its this type of insight and analysis that helps me keep my senses when the world around us is filled with short term illusions.

Personally, I think we could see a crazy run up as far as 9k or an outside chance at 10k before reality sets in. However, the underlying facts you've pointed out are critical to keep in mind, and while its great to take advantage of senseless rallies, market volatility and downside risk are as present and likely as ever.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Thu, 09 Apr 2009 21:29:22 -0400

MGA -- totally agree.....there is on doubt this would have been another bear market rally -- but what if it just bridges the gap until we start seeing some stimulus and bailout impact? I believe it could turn into a 12 month rally or more, until inflation rears its head.

Dicey times...I am long but hedged. If the market pierces 8200, i will loosen up and look for more upside. If we drop back below 7700, or 7500 in particular, I will probably get short for a while.

Suckers' rally: "It is unwise and foolish to treat this bear market like any other in the post-WWII period because it is totally unique; the scope and depth of the ongoing destruction of consumer and business credit, bank balance sheet compression and insolvency, consumer retrenchment and soaring unemployment should not be underestimated."

Thu, 09 Apr 2009 18:54:51 -0400

Yes, surely cetin must have a comment on this point.

On Apr 09 06:12 PM The Geoffster wrote:

> Where's Cetin?

Where Do We Go From Here?

Thu, 09 Apr 2009 07:10:03 -0400

Good stuff...I have been watching 8200 as the topped out retracement line with keen interest. Ever since the market had its first up day off the bottom i picked 8200 (using fib retracement) and decided to watch it as the determining factor as to whether the market was entering a true new uptrend.

Well, I recently found myself getting "optimistic" (right around Dow 7800), this in spite of the fact that I had always expected a retracement to this level. That is almost a certain sign that we are topping out and about to roll over. Must.......not...........

Is It a Bear Market Rally, or Something More?

Tue, 10 Mar 2009 17:25:12 -0400

Well, it's definitely a bear market rally...the only question is - is it a one day wonder, or might we see a sustained bounce up to the 800 level over the next month and a half. I think there is a decent chance the latter occurs, barring any major shock (like GM bankruptcy).