themackattack

John Hussman: Context Matters

Read this twice -- as far as I can see you said we could trade in a range, we could break down below March lows, or we could begin a steady rise. Apparently you will wait to see which is going to happen and then take a position to profit accordingly. We must be thankful that we have the ever-nebulous "market internals" to guide our decision making on this point...

Sentiment Overview: Bulls Rushing in at Alarming Rate

Whether this rally was based on sound fundamentals or not is almost moot at this point. The reality is this rally came at just the right time, and appears to be of an adequate duration to bridge the gap until some effects of the stimulus plan start to show.

The stimulus doesn't get much discussion any more. A near trillion dollar investment by the government is bound to show a measurable impact on the economy, and when it does it is likely to be perceived as a continuance of the recovery that is perceived to have started in early '09.

Personally, I think we've entered a great economic decline that will see a continuance of the market downtrend. BUT, I do believe we could see the market rally for the remainder of '09 and much of '10 as a result of the stimulus impact. Probably sometime in 2010 further credit problems will materialize and the downtrend will resume.

Why Jim Rogers and Robert Shiller Aren't Buying U.S. Stocks Yet

Jasper,

I do believe you hit the nail on the head with your description of Goldilocks...

TMA


On Apr 26 07:50 PM Jasper M wrote:

> JohnFC: probably chewing gum, and unflushed public toilets. (seriously,
> do you need a reason to run from NY?)
> What do you suppose a Goldilocks Zombie would look like? I am guessing
> a trifle chubby, and unshaven . . .

Why We Shorted the QQQQ

What is the point of this Thumbs Down button if someone accruing 1000 Thumbs Down points doesn't get permanently silenced/muted?? (and you know whom I speak of)

How Long Can the Divergence Between Quantitative, Qualitative Trends Continue?

That's weird -- so many have been predicting a "Three-Little-Pigs" based economy, so this "Goldilocks" call is indeed befuddling.

Then again, I have seen many call for a general "Mother Goose" malaise over the next 3-5 years.

It is indeed difficult to know which will come to pass.

It's a Recovery, But Not as We Know It

Excellent article Sean -- its this type of insight and analysis that helps me keep my senses when the world around us is filled with short term illusions.

Personally, I think we could see a crazy run up as far as 9k or an outside chance at 10k before reality sets in. However, the underlying facts you've pointed out are critical to keep in mind, and while its great to take advantage of senseless rallies, market volatility and downside risk are as present and likely as ever.

Market Outlook: What Will the Fog of March Bring?

I agree, sub-1000 on the DOW seems overly pessimistic. Look for 3000 -3500 at the low end, and for things to settle in for a good long while just above 5000.

Market Outlook: What Will the Fog of March Bring?

After two months in a row with the worst index losses since the great depression, one would think we are due for a break.

Also, i went all cash end of day Friday, so there is another good indicator that we could be in for a bounce.

But, I'm expecting to see the 5000's before too long.