themackattack

Mr. Roubini, Please Take a Seat

My question is how does this drivel get published here. Sorry, but I'll skip getting info from the "Good News eCONomist" in the midst of a recession/depression. It's this half ass type of analysis and damn near outright fraud that got us all into this predicament in the first place.

And, Oh, by the way, seeing Cetin the Cretin is your primary fanboi is really all one needs to know to understand the value in your writing.

Frankly, everyone on here who is pumping some sort of uber-bullish scenario is obviously pushing a personal agenda for their own gain. I know it, you know it, and everyone else knows it.

Yes, there has been some deceleration in the pace of economic decline, but the big question is whether that is temporary leading to a renewed decline, or at best the beginnings of a long-term economic malaise.

We all know, and by "we" I mean absolutely everyone, that the best case scenario for this economy is to flatten out into a long term coma drowned in large scale public debt. That's the best case - the odds are just as good that we see continued significant decline as the housing market bottoms over the next two years (followed then by a coma of 5 to 10 years).

The process of deleveraging is a slow one -- as of now everyone knows the economy is going to continue to contract; however ,its baked into the models and prices. Only when it becomes clear that deflationary declines will outpace current projections will the market begin its next leg down. That very well could mean a sideways market until late 2009, and then a significant continued decline.

N

It's a Recovery, But Not as We Know It

Excellent article Sean -- its this type of insight and analysis that helps me keep my senses when the world around us is filled with short term illusions.

Personally, I think we could see a crazy run up as far as 9k or an outside chance at 10k before reality sets in. However, the underlying facts you've pointed out are critical to keep in mind, and while its great to take advantage of senseless rallies, market volatility and downside risk are as present and likely as ever.

Even Cramer Agrees: UltraShort Financial ETF Is Nothing but a Poor Trading Vehicle

Its a short term trading vehicle (up to a week or two at most), nothing more, nothing less. Just one more tool in the tool belt -- use it properly and for the right situation, and it can be quite useful.

Of course, if you try to beat on a nail with a philips screwdriver, you won't get far either (and you might even hurt yourself).