Pessimistic Optimist

Verizon Raises Dividends, But Is it Enough?

I got in last week to diversify a little better. I have had to visit the VZ store a few times last week and after chatting with their manager I am convinced they are going to do well for the near future even out a bit. There is no confirmation on the iphone's reported transition. Right now a bunch of chatter mostly from spculators, many here in the pages....according to my source. It is a wait and see.

The dividend spike is welcomed along with the thought of a small but meaningful lift back to 32. Make a little and then make a little extra.I am a longer term holder with an eye out. If the company gives you above 6%, hell yeah I'll take it. But I will stay vigilant on its progress. If things change, get out, hopefully with a dividend payout.

Fisher Price Deflation

The comments regarding an inventory which is being priced to move equalling less $$ for retailers coupled to lay-offs of employees seems to be the theme of the day.

Add that to incomprehensible fear of investors hording what cash they have managed to rathole in this downtrend which reduces spending of the consumer and what good can be made of the current state of this market? If you really want to drive the nail home look at the current rate of unemployment in some cities, counties and states.

Exceeding 9.5% in some locals does not make for a recovery. I believe that we will not fully recover until the unemployment rates fall to below 3% which are some of the countrys lowest averages on record.

The injection of fresh capital by the gov't , which some say saved us from economic armageddon, has insured that sooner than later the middle class will be picking up a tab we have not yet considered what DNA strand will be footing the bill on. Basically stated, our great grand children just inherited our debt.

And now the bad news............

Dell: Signs of Insider Trading

I see so many Dell ads for damn good bargains. That, with the good news from Intel and the fact that it is back to school season ... to me , that spells pop. The thought is to get in and out before Dell realizes this market is ready for a decent correction. My gut says 10% minimum to level the playing field. I look at either of my portfolios and they both have made an average of 22%! Yes I have snitzled my profits and am now sidelined for the next upswing. It is no secret and it is blatently obvious you see this type of movement over such a short period of time. These are five year moves folks! take some off. Does the statement too far too fast ring chrystal clear yet? I am now liquid in both accounts and patiently waiting.
Hell I feel so good about gaining back a little of what i lost that if I do not get in at next drops bottom, I know I will be ok just by what has just happened. As also was stated I will accept missing trhe first 10%, climb on for the next 40% and sit out the top 5%. No pressure to make bigger mistakes and be greedy.
good luck folks!

July Retail Sales: The Economic Storm Is Not Over

Hang on to your ass folks. We are not done. I will say.. guess, 3rd inning just completed. If there is anything positive to come, it is the knowledge that we will have a retracement, a correction if you will. How much and exactly when is anybodys guess. many will say it should have already happened. some think it is around the corner. I say... what corner, when?? The truth is, nobody knows but there is a smell of blood in the water and just as you were on afraid to be in, then afraid to be out.. that original fear is eching its way back onto the forfront. Folks are poised to bail at the first whisper of a turn in the markets. We have a month.. maybe six weeks at the most. If I am correct my 401K will be up 60% from March lows. Then I will only be down 35% from the beginning of this beating. I will remain positive and keep a weary eye to the storm. Good luck to us all.




then be out

Cramer's Mad Money - Strategies for Staying in the Game (6/29/09)

limit orders allow you to put the price on what you are willing to pay for the stock . Say a stock is going for 18.40 and you feel that is too high considering a few days earlier it was only 18.00, you only want to pay 18.00 for it. The limit order available in your trading platform will allow you to wait until it come back to that price before you buy it. In your drop down bar ( assuming your with a company that provides this option) place your price, the number of shares and them what type of order you want.

The opposite would be a stop which is saying you owned it at 18.40 and do not want to relinquish all your profit if your concerned it will drop for some bit of news or a gut feeling. Your stop order will or should sell your stock at your chosen stop price. The closer to the 18.40 you stop the tighter the stop is. There are two ways to play that end either a % or a price numerically.

22 Dividend Stocks with Good Fundamentals

I too believe in dividends after homework is completed.. but it really never stops.
a few I am holding in my discretionary portfolio names and yields of VZ at 6.1%, BP at 7.49% COP at 4.38%, Nat at 14.45% ( after being cut in half) , CAT at 4.26% KMP at 8.93%,, ETE at 7.94%. , MKC at 3.19%, HNZ at 4.71%
CPB at 3.79%. I know I am heavy energy but these are carriers and have no anchor to anything but moving product. I have one real speculator here in RGM at 102.98%. yes you saw it right .. crazy yielder but at a buck plus 70 that is how much I have to loose.
go dividends!

Cramer's Mad Money - Mutual Fund Monday (5/4/09)

Drini.. lots of doom and gloom. If the markets goes bust you hit it on the head, if not.. well... you lost more. As these stocks climb I protect with tighter stops. To not play this as a trader's market is just crazy. Over 35% in 1/3 of my portfolio and still going? You kidding me? I am still trailing up. If the mutuals are coming to play.. when will the bubble pop? It could go another 20-30%. Still doesn't match my downside but as I see it, taking profit and then coming back in after a 15 to 20% retracement will at least close the gap. I believe we have at least 5% more upside then will consider easing out. Not gonna be a hog. I would like to see it spread through-out the week as opposed to hitting in one day..like by Friday.. I will most likely be out the door or my stops will hit and I will be out sooner.

Cramer's Stop Trading! China Saves the World (4/29/09)

I have to think that in some places rural China doesn't have a pot to piss in literally.. why on God's green earth would they
give a wash machine to each family in China's rural communities when water and plumbing in some of these locations will be scarce at best?

beyond that as mentioned electricity is a luzury most of these farm communities most likely don't have either. They going to also supply generators and then water tenders so they can do their laundry? Might as well throw in some detergent.. uh, biodegradable.

Is Dendreon a $360 Stock - Or Is That Too Low?

I am sitting on a call at high 11 handle.. if it opens where it closed or even adds 5 .. I will secure a nice postion.. if it screams out of the hole.. I missed a sweetheart. I will not chase this lean fast running champion of life's longevity.

Four plus months is just that, and when your circling the drain.. it is a life time. I'll take it..literally.

Cramer's Stop Trading! How Can You Not Want to Be in Freeport? (4/23/09)

The China build out will certainly bring the price of copper up. FCX and their copper reserves are poised to benefit from this and they are hedged with gold as well. Now we wait and see if their economy will grow more than the current 6%.

AT&T vs. Verizon - Which Is Better Positioned for the Future?

Both great companies.. I see At&T coverage lacking in a few more places that I frequent and a little higher divvy gives the nod to VZ. I also lke that fact that they will hybrid the BB Storm, fashion it with tactile and touchscreen, go 4G and keep a few phones with Wi-Fi capabilities ( for wifes little pleasures)

Bundle it up and sell me two new phones.. next year I will upgrade to 4G unless it come standard with certain packages. .

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

Man, this is a mix match hodge podge of answers if there ever was some. I read it is the fundamentals.. then it is the charts, then it is the history, then it is fear.. then optimism, then the 200 day.. maybe toss in the 50 day MAs . I have seen about every reason or excuse for a rally or a possible captitulation of the markets and folks in it. If you caught a rip upward and made a dollar good for you, protect it with tighter stops or sell a piece of it. Nobody ever lost money on taking profits where and when available. . If your on the sidelines, you have a conscious choice to join in the faray or stay seated. If you fear the worst coming yet , stay out or get out.

To try and guess ( that is what I get from this article.. guessing) is throwing caution to the wind...if in, or out...and if you guess wrong.. what happens? You either win or lose depending on how you called your action. Those whom missed this move.. well the 20-60-20% rule applies and is about as true as your going to see. The markets will return.. it is anybody's guess when..oops I said it again. You could be the winners on another rip or you would prove to be the looser -a goat if you will- if over precautious.

All I am saying is nobody knows what will happen.. nobody. I was in pretty heavy for me after early March when it turned for the 25% plus rip. I have tight stops especially in financials and will watch commodities like steel and fertilizers somewhat to the comments of another poster here. I caught RIMM at 41.00 smackers.. I was fortunate to play it right. I was in before earnings by over a week and called it, only silently to myself. I had convictions on the BB looks like that one worked. Competition breeds efficiency.

I do not know anything that anybody else doesn't know. It is a chance that I took and I got it right, finally. I like the market in general. There are promising trades out there.. I do not think we are talking holds yet unless your up on great long play dividends but that is my opinion. Speaking of which, I really like the cruise lines right now with loosened restrictions in Cuba. I am not saying these will rip but I am preparing for something to happen. And I feel, not fear , that this something will be positive. That is the key.. be positive where you can whether in or out.

good luck folks

Notes on the Impending Market Reversal

I feel Friday will be the end of this run .As mentioned in this article the run has lasted basically much longer than expcted. Listening to the pundits that follow as a profession, when they begin in unison that this ramp up is unaccountable and an elephant walk up the indices, it is time to take notice. It has run large and in charge and is due for a pull back. GE reports Friday the markets will move on their report.. they are that big. They are the bell weather, the telltale sign of if we are slowing the contraction or if the bloodletting will continue. .. I am poised to pull the trigger now. I have also tight stopped many of my big runners for the occcasion. Bull or bear.. a run is a run is a run.. no hog here.

Cramer: Jon Stewart Interview Was a 'Complete and Utter Ambush'

Cramer should have known ahead of time what the agenda would be. Stewart's people should have had the sack to tell him what this show was about. he went in blind and for that he was asshatted, maybe his own fault for being so naive. Not that he is a naive person but he thought Jon would treat him right? I am confidant next time he will learn what the agenda is and hold that interview to its merit. I too make money from Cramer's teachings. I have read his books and between the show and the books.. he is repititious to the point he does his best to beat it home. I do not follow his picks but I do go back and educate myself on his foundation. I am sure Stewart is being touted as really working Cramer and high fives were flying. If he was really that good, he would have gone way up the food chain and tried to cajol Ben or maybe Paulson..maybe Gueitner.

What Cramer Did Not Tell You About Research in Motion Stock

Rimm will soon lose the Storm for a hybrid version of that very phone. The touch screen texting is the number one complaint about the phone. it will have the ability to text with the tactile functins of the BB curves...Bold etc.. and also have the touch screen capability as well. Due date is about 2 months out. That is on top of their new Apps store. They produce a great phone for what it does.. business.. to add more business Apps can only make this a greater phone yet.