Schweizer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/257689/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174361-japan-in-the-tank?source=feed#comment-767842 767842 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:45:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/30713-strong-recovery-signal-from-chicago-fed?source=feed#comment-707542 707542 Restruants are empty
Rail traffic flat for over 9 months and a leg down seems to be starting.

What the hell is the FED measuring anyway? I know, nothing. They use "models."]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:20:41 -0400 Restruants are empty
Rail traffic flat for over 9 months and a leg down seems to be starting.

What the hell is the FED measuring anyway? I know, nothing. They use "models."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163820-liz-ann-sonders-job-gains-possible-by-year-end?source=feed#comment-696476 696476
No one is hiring
Few people are spending
Debt is a 4-letter word

Enough said.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 03:04:29 -0400
No one is hiring
Few people are spending
Debt is a 4-letter word

Enough said.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/32405?source=feed#comment-675897 675897 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 11:43:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160979-all-economic-data-turning-up?source=feed#comment-671737 671737
A stimulus spending bounce is all that you see, and it will fade like the evening sun.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 08:42:11 -0400
A stimulus spending bounce is all that you see, and it will fade like the evening sun.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161047-current-market-about-to-lose-momentum-gundlach?source=feed#comment-671720 671720
Defaults made dollars vanish and thus each dollar is worth more. The Treasury and FED are not going to step in as these defaults mount. The FED is already $2T invested but the private debt size is $50T with a good chunk of it about to default. This is a wave too big to be held back by printing or borrowing more dollars.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 08:31:55 -0400
Defaults made dollars vanish and thus each dollar is worth more. The Treasury and FED are not going to step in as these defaults mount. The FED is already $2T invested but the private debt size is $50T with a good chunk of it about to default. This is a wave too big to be held back by printing or borrowing more dollars.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159968-stimulus-can-t-save-the-stock-market?source=feed#comment-661426 661426
And if you look closer, there is also a strong social engineering overtone to where the money was mandated to be spent. Obama used the economic crisis to fund his socialistic agenda. Despicable.

People should not expect this money to jumpstart anything other than outrage about how Washington behaves.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 07:14:52 -0400
And if you look closer, there is also a strong social engineering overtone to where the money was mandated to be spent. Obama used the economic crisis to fund his socialistic agenda. Despicable.

People should not expect this money to jumpstart anything other than outrage about how Washington behaves.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/26152-stimulus-roll-out?source=feed#comment-661401 661401
1. Social Engineering using economic panic as an excuse to get away with it
2. Backfilling of collapsing State revenues to save government jobs and to salvage already-planned transportation projects. Not stimulative.

"Stimulus" has to have clear leverage. This bill was just pure "spending."

I'd like to see a chart where State budget shortfalls were overlayed on it in some way to see if there truly any net positive money left over to help the economy. My guess is that all $787B was just Federal borrowing to offset $787B in lost tax revenue across the country and very little of it is being used for "new" spending.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 06:19:13 -0400
1. Social Engineering using economic panic as an excuse to get away with it
2. Backfilling of collapsing State revenues to save government jobs and to salvage already-planned transportation projects. Not stimulative.

"Stimulus" has to have clear leverage. This bill was just pure "spending."

I'd like to see a chart where State budget shortfalls were overlayed on it in some way to see if there truly any net positive money left over to help the economy. My guess is that all $787B was just Federal borrowing to offset $787B in lost tax revenue across the country and very little of it is being used for "new" spending.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159752-preview-august-employment-report?source=feed#comment-661394 661394 Fri, 04 Sep 2009 05:55:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/31866?source=feed#comment-660379 660379
It is a long way from being over. GDP is not the only measure and it can reverse in a hurry.]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:42:48 -0400
It is a long way from being over. GDP is not the only measure and it can reverse in a hurry.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159735-employment-outlook-is-improving?source=feed#comment-659809 659809
In 2003, the unemployment rate peaked at 6.2%. Things are far worse now and the root of the problem (massive debt) is far more serious than the "dot-com" bubble. Our rate is 9.4% now and estimates are for as high at 13% down the road.

All that is happening is a bounce. Nothing has fundamentally been fixed, and the bottom will come in when it is fixed.]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 05:56:46 -0400
In 2003, the unemployment rate peaked at 6.2%. Things are far worse now and the root of the problem (massive debt) is far more serious than the "dot-com" bubble. Our rate is 9.4% now and estimates are for as high at 13% down the road.

All that is happening is a bounce. Nothing has fundamentally been fixed, and the bottom will come in when it is fixed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159752-preview-august-employment-report?source=feed#comment-659796 659796
You should include a graph of your estimates vs BLS. Thanks.]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 05:34:55 -0400
You should include a graph of your estimates vs BLS. Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159657-sure-its-legal-but-is-it-right?source=feed#comment-658491 658491 Wed, 02 Sep 2009 12:40:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159484-sell-in-september-time-for-a-reality-check?source=feed#comment-658054 658054 Wed, 02 Sep 2009 09:20:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159415-manufacturing-will-this-be-a-v-shaped-recovery-after-all?source=feed#comment-657345 657345
Just sayin'.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:54:12 -0400
Just sayin'.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159434-weaker-dollar-stronger-equities?source=feed#comment-657328 657328
Just sayin'.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:45:53 -0400
Just sayin'.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159437-expanding-manufacturing-foreshadows-recession-s-end?source=feed#comment-657321 657321
As a kid one of my tricks to avoid going to school was to complain to my mom that I had a fever, and I proved it to by showing her a thermometer that I had just secretly run under hot water while washing my hands after using the bathroom.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:40:17 -0400
As a kid one of my tricks to avoid going to school was to complain to my mom that I had a fever, and I proved it to by showing her a thermometer that I had just secretly run under hot water while washing my hands after using the bathroom.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/55431-jeff-miller/25630-ism-data-and-upcoming-jobs-report?source=feed#comment-656619 656619
Key misleading and overused term.

No one is hiring.
No one is buying "stuff."
No end to the job losses in sight.

The recovery is statistical, not factual, and based on gov over borrowing and spending only.

Typical bounce in an ongoing decline.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 12:31:01 -0400
Key misleading and overused term.

No one is hiring.
No one is buying "stuff."
No end to the job losses in sight.

The recovery is statistical, not factual, and based on gov over borrowing and spending only.

Typical bounce in an ongoing decline.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159355-the-non-stimulating-stimulus-bill?source=feed#comment-655923 655923
All this false hope only to result in things being far worse than they would have been.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 08:05:54 -0400
All this false hope only to result in things being far worse than they would have been.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158695-what-can-stop-this-market-rally?source=feed#comment-649412 649412 Thu, 27 Aug 2009 15:23:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158464-new-home-sales-is-soar-the-right-word?source=feed#comment-647863 647863 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:11:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158286-analyzing-strange-volume-on-the-nyse?source=feed#comment-646945 646945
It will collapse within weeks. Just watch. Once it starts to go the selling will be wild.

Neely has deep new lows by year end.]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 08:52:02 -0400
It will collapse within weeks. Just watch. Once it starts to go the selling will be wild.

Neely has deep new lows by year end.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158208-it-s-getting-harder-to-be-a-housing-bear?source=feed#comment-646135 646135 Tue, 25 Aug 2009 17:12:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/24532-mixed-housing-data?source=feed#comment-646129 646129 (unsustainable)]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 17:08:48 -0400 (unsustainable)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158241-are-home-buyers-worried-about-missing-the-market-bottom?source=feed#comment-646112 646112
And with the $8000 hand-out used as the only down payment by many, most of these new mortgages will be underwater within a year, thus adding to the already horrible numbers of owners in distress.

Just like cash 4 clunkers, this handout will be a net negative. I also heard many cash 4 clunkers are just now finding out they have to pay sales tax on the rebate as well as income tax. Plus, since many paid full sticker and had no trade-in to offset, the sales tax they had to pay was on the full amount and had to be paid out-of-pocket.

Now most have a large car payment, higher insurance, and an asset that depreciated by the rebate amount the moment they drove it off the lot.]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 17:02:21 -0400
And with the $8000 hand-out used as the only down payment by many, most of these new mortgages will be underwater within a year, thus adding to the already horrible numbers of owners in distress.

Just like cash 4 clunkers, this handout will be a net negative. I also heard many cash 4 clunkers are just now finding out they have to pay sales tax on the rebate as well as income tax. Plus, since many paid full sticker and had no trade-in to offset, the sales tax they had to pay was on the full amount and had to be paid out-of-pocket.

Now most have a large car payment, higher insurance, and an asset that depreciated by the rebate amount the moment they drove it off the lot.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/23843-citizens-to-monitor-stimulus-spending?source=feed#comment-639308 639308
8/17/2009 (AP):
The Obama administration is tripling the number of workers processing Cash for Clunkers transactions as some dealers complain the government has been slow to reimburse them for the car incentives of up to $4,500 per vehicle. An administration official said Monday the Transportation Department hoped to have 1,100 public and private sector workers processing the vouchers by the end of the week, up from a work force of about 350 through the end of last week.]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 04:46:53 -0400
8/17/2009 (AP):
The Obama administration is tripling the number of workers processing Cash for Clunkers transactions as some dealers complain the government has been slow to reimburse them for the car incentives of up to $4,500 per vehicle. An administration official said Monday the Transportation Department hoped to have 1,100 public and private sector workers processing the vouchers by the end of the week, up from a work force of about 350 through the end of last week.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157319-new-jobless-claims-remain-stubbornly-high?source=feed#comment-638174 638174
www.financialsense.com...]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 12:08:57 -0400
www.financialsense.com...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157136-waiting-for-the-market-correction-but?source=feed#comment-637166 637166
The higher histogram low this time will come in 2010 most likely and, like the prior 2001 recession, will come with the SP500 at significantly lower prices. Positive divergence in the MACD histogram is key to arresting the downtrend.

Long way to go yet.]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 18:04:27 -0400
The higher histogram low this time will come in 2010 most likely and, like the prior 2001 recession, will come with the SP500 at significantly lower prices. Positive divergence in the MACD histogram is key to arresting the downtrend.

Long way to go yet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156910-what-form-will-market-correction-take?source=feed#comment-636030 636030

On Aug 19 05:41 AM Schweizer wrote:

> We already know what Form the Market Correction will take because
> we got the correction already, from early March to early August.
> Like the same 52% correction that occured in 1930, this one will
> roll over and slide towards the March lows, without much turning
> back, and will ultimately go lower.
>
> Why? Nothing has been fixed, and the PE on SP500 is over 3 on a 2009
> GAAP earnings basis. All the major bear market bottoms this century
> were acheived with a PE under 10.
>
> The $SSEC (China) is about 2 weeks ahead of the SP500 on this journey
> to new lows. It has already broken its 50dma and its uptrend line
> after correcting to the 38.2% Fib line from the top.
>
> Chart:
> i31.tinypic.com/2eezdw...]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 05:43:03 -0400

On Aug 19 05:41 AM Schweizer wrote:

> We already know what Form the Market Correction will take because
> we got the correction already, from early March to early August.
> Like the same 52% correction that occured in 1930, this one will
> roll over and slide towards the March lows, without much turning
> back, and will ultimately go lower.
>
> Why? Nothing has been fixed, and the PE on SP500 is over 3 on a 2009
> GAAP earnings basis. All the major bear market bottoms this century
> were acheived with a PE under 10.
>
> The $SSEC (China) is about 2 weeks ahead of the SP500 on this journey
> to new lows. It has already broken its 50dma and its uptrend line
> after correcting to the 38.2% Fib line from the top.
>
> Chart:
> i31.tinypic.com/2eezdw...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156910-what-form-will-market-correction-take?source=feed#comment-636028 636028
Why? Nothing has been fixed, and the PE on SP500 is over 3 on a 2009 GAAP earnings basis. All the major bear market bottoms this century were acheived with a PE under 10.

The $SSEC (China) is about 2 weeks ahead of the SP500 on this journey to new lows. It has already broken its 50dma and its uptrend line after correcting to the 38.2% Fib line from the top.

Chart:
i31.tinypic.com/2eezdw...
]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 05:41:46 -0400
Why? Nothing has been fixed, and the PE on SP500 is over 3 on a 2009 GAAP earnings basis. All the major bear market bottoms this century were acheived with a PE under 10.

The $SSEC (China) is about 2 weeks ahead of the SP500 on this journey to new lows. It has already broken its 50dma and its uptrend line after correcting to the 38.2% Fib line from the top.

Chart:
i31.tinypic.com/2eezdw...
]]>