Schweizer

Liz Ann Sonders: Job Gains Possible by Year-End

Don't trust anyone who's job it is to take money from you. Sonders is no exception. I wonder what will become of these types as the SPX tumbles to new lows over the next year.

No one is hiring
Few people are spending
Debt is a 4-letter word

Enough said.

Stimulus Can't Save the Stock Market

The $787B "stimulus" was simply money the feds borrowed to backfill tax revenue drops experienced by state and local governments. It temporarily saved thousands of government jobs that should have been scrubbed-out like private jobs have, and allowed some already planned transit projects to continue rather than be halted. Very little was stimulative - just raw spending.

And if you look closer, there is also a strong social engineering overtone to where the money was mandated to be spent. Obama used the economic crisis to fund his socialistic agenda. Despicable.

People should not expect this money to jumpstart anything other than outrage about how Washington behaves.

Preview: August Employment Report

Jeff, thanks for the follow-up. I do think a monthly chart with 3 lines on it would help readers understand why tracking the BLS estimates is so difficult. The graph would have their initial reported number, their revised (delayed 9m) number, and your estimate at the time. Even now this could be reconstructed from history and it would be beneficial and perhaps help improve your future estimates.

Preview: August Employment Report

Your estimate was way off last month and you never explained why. You estimated -441K vs -247K BLS "truth."

You should include a graph of your estimates vs BLS. Thanks.

Sell in September? Time for a Reality Check

September will be far worse than average. Just watch.

Analyzing Strange Volume on the NYSE

Bull markets are lead by MONSTER STOCKS. Look at those Zombie names. Sick.

It will collapse within weeks. Just watch. Once it starts to go the selling will be wild.

Neely has deep new lows by year end.

'Green Shoots' Are a Mirage: Economy Will Deteriorate Further

It's funny. Obama, Summers, Geittner, and Ben believe that it is mainly a confidence problem. If they spin everything as a green shoot then people will feel better about borrowing and spending and thus the economy will magically heal. Well, the market WILL revert to the proper base valuation point based on earnings, sales growth, and earnings growth, and that base value may be well under SP500 666.

As the SP500 goes to these new base lows, not only will our confidence be shot about the market, our confidence in these national leaders will be totally gone as well.

Why This Rally Will Continue

Go all in my friend because the smart money is getting out.

Rise of the Part-Timer, Fall of the Labor Force

John - you'll love this:
www.financialsense.com...

Rise of the Part-Timer, Fall of the Labor Force

The BLS is a model based on a survey. It is not a measurement.

Trimtabs does measurements based on realtime payroll tax data and they estimated the real number to be -488K in headcount terms (I agree that's a lousy unit of measure).

Timetabs data and press release"
tiny.cc/Odg5q

The mainstream media should take the BLS report and tear it up during a Presidential or Congressional hearing to make the point that the American people need real numbers, not estimates that are easy to fudge to somehow maintain "confidence" in our economy.

Confidence Games and Ponzi Schemes: No Way to Run the World's Largest Economy

All that consumer spending was tied to housing. That ATM has now been unplugged. People are adjusting to the new lower level of spending and it is not all that harsh. It is almost taboo now to desire toys and other consumer junk. A generational shift is underway ans the US Gov needs to adjust too, by shrinking in its spending. No sign of that which is what has everyone concerned.

Commerce Department's Revised GDP Shows a Delineated Story for the Recession

Until monthly rail and truck tonnage reports improve, the inventory replenishment idea is just an idea.

Have you noticed every revision has been to the downside on GDP. Perhaps we were -3% in Q2, eh. Funny how that happens.

Are You Buying This Rally?

After the last recession ended in 2001 the market fell almost 40% more over the next 16 months as the unemployment rate kept rising. Unemplyment rate topped in 2003 and the market bottomed, and quess what, the peak unemployment rate was 6.25%! This time it could be double that.

Rally on sheep.

How Much Longer for This Rally?

SO .... How much longer, as the title suggests??

70% beat earnings expectations but also likely 70% missed revenue expectations, but let's not discuss that fact.

With China stimulus ending, Q2 likely was a flash in the pan, especially for tech stocks. There needs to be real, sustained, aggregate demand - it's not happening yet and likely won't happen for a long time as we are going through a cultural shift away from debt, but it is debt (lending) that Washington hopes we embrace again to get the economy going. Not gonna happen.

Revenues Down, Profits Up: Is This a Problem?

Just because they beat expectations does not mean their profitability is improving. Less workers means less consumers - BAD for revenue for everyone.

Looking at the 2000-2003 period, stocks declined for 16 months more and lost 30% after GDP went positive (ie: recession over) in late 2001. Positive GDP does not mean stocks will rise.

Stocks did not turn around until the unemployment rate peaked in 2003 - the SAME MONTH. That is not going to happen for a while this time around.