Schweizer

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Meredith is a Bear, and she and other smart bears got what they wanted by this bull trap move, a higher price to enter short.

Well played MW!

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

In simple turns, we've topped and bounced off the bear market trendlines. Now we head to the other side of the channel:
i42.tinypic.com/30cq0s...
i44.tinypic.com/21l8n6...

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Few realize what just happened.

The INDU is in a serious down channel and this bear market rally went up and tagged the upper down channel line, the busted 200-month moving average, and the old 2003-2007 bull market up channel. A "Kiss Goodbye."

We are now heading down which will be fueled by larger Real Estate defaults (CRE, Alt-A, Option-ARM, Jumbo), and large bankruptcies, and maybe even defaults by States (like Calif).

Also, major Bear market bottoms are alway made with a GAAP PE under 10. As of June 2009, the SPX PE was 63. What does that tell ya?

The Big Picture chart which likely will play out, as the market drops to seek that necessary GAAP PE of under 10 floor: i40.tinypic.com/35m0ec...

This Market's Rising Tide Isn't Lifting All Boats

This should clear up where we are headed next:
i39.tinypic.com/2gxeha...

The SPX PE is now 63 based on the latest Standard and Poors GAAP earnings, and earning are not improving looking forward.
Major bear market lows have always been made at a PE under 10.

Here's another clue, long term INDU:
i43.tinypic.com/34px9j...

It's all rather obvious.

Say goodnight Gracie, show's over.

Stocks Undervalued in Current Economic Environment

SPX GAAP PE is 63 on June 5th using ttm earnings.

GAAP Earnings for the SPX is now $27.45 for 2009 per Standard and Poors; That's a 2009 full year PE of 34.

Bear market lows have always been made at a PE under 10, so we are 3.4x too expensive.

Suck some more sheep in there Mr. Wall Street.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

The Obama budget was the trigger. It suppresses economic activity rather than promotes it, and it punishes anyone trying to make a profit through increased taxation to feed an ever increasing government. This is the exact opposite of what's needed.

I didn't think he was that stupid, but I am obviously wrong.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Attention Bottom callers. Notice David's SPY monthly chart. In the last Bear Market in 2000-2003, the MACD histogram low point came 2 years before the Bear bottomed and the loss was an additional 40% from that MACD histogram low point.

The 2007-201X Bear market has yet to see the MACD histogram low point, suggesting a 40% or more drop is virtually certain.

Global Stock Markets: Highs, Lows and What to Expect in 2009

It's pretty clear the pros aren't buying. They are selling to the usual victims with the help of the Wall Street media.

The November low was a panic low and not a capitulation low. Capitualtion is when no one wants stocks, period. With the latest EPS forecast for SP500 earnings now at $42, and a Bear market bottom of a PE=8 (based on the last 4 big recession bottoms), the SP500 could/should see 42 x 8 = $332 in 2009. Perhaps we will see capitulation then.