Dirkyp's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/257722/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/113540-algonquin-power-a-promising-renewable-energy-income-investment?source=feed#comment-430500 430500
They said they would internalize management in Q1 and now they said that won't happen - why would they want to? ]]> Wed, 18 Mar 2009 10:31:37 -0400
They said they would internalize management in Q1 and now they said that won't happen - why would they want to? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114701-lamar-advertising-8-reasons-why-this-stock-is-toast?source=feed#comment-355941 355941

On Jan 14 07:35 AM JW Goethe wrote:

> The author, while listing several academic metrics, truly doesn't
> get Lamar Advertising.
>
> The reasons he is wrong, about 8 of them, are too numerous to list.]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 16:22:32 -0500

On Jan 14 07:35 AM JW Goethe wrote:

> The author, while listing several academic metrics, truly doesn't
> get Lamar Advertising.
>
> The reasons he is wrong, about 8 of them, are too numerous to list.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114786-pre-device-makes-palm-a-short-term-buy-ubs?source=feed#comment-355938 355938
The Pre is a nice unit but is more or less a me-too product, they can't compete against massive rival's RIM, Nokia, and Apple, and Sprint will likely be the only tier 1 carrier offering it for a long time. And it won't ship for several quarters which means the hype will die down and other devices will be announced.

In the meantime PALM is burning lots of its cash - estimate of $100M over next 4 quarters - they only have $185M or so, and they have $400M in debt so they may have to raise dilutive equity.

So poor consumer environment, smartphone competition heating up significantly, inferior carrier channel, cash burn, and post-CES hype.

My view is that a home run is priced into the stock and that at best they might hit a single before it starts raining and the bankers call the came. ]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 16:20:25 -0500
The Pre is a nice unit but is more or less a me-too product, they can't compete against massive rival's RIM, Nokia, and Apple, and Sprint will likely be the only tier 1 carrier offering it for a long time. And it won't ship for several quarters which means the hype will die down and other devices will be announced.

In the meantime PALM is burning lots of its cash - estimate of $100M over next 4 quarters - they only have $185M or so, and they have $400M in debt so they may have to raise dilutive equity.

So poor consumer environment, smartphone competition heating up significantly, inferior carrier channel, cash burn, and post-CES hype.

My view is that a home run is priced into the stock and that at best they might hit a single before it starts raining and the bankers call the came. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110166-salesforce-com-unlikely-to-sustain-its-current-high-multiple?source=feed#comment-336935 336935
To me it looks like, regardless of the merits, the hedge funds are piling on short positions and may target CRM as their next meal . 62x FY Jan 2010 earnings is VERY rich, and that's IF they manage to grow earning 60%+ in the worst economy in a generation.

1/3 of CRM's business is from small businesses and spending may grind to a halt there.

Great company but way overpriced in my view - what is the upside from here? Say they do hit the numbers and grow earnings by 60% in a brutal economy, fight off competition and price cuts from Oracle/Netsuite, etc. then they are still trading at 62x those earnings. So maybe it could go to $40?? But the downside is probably $10, so I think there are way better risk-adjusted bets out there. Somehow buying something like Intel (just to use an example) at 4.5x EBITDA seems like a better risk adjusted bet.

By the way I am short, for full disclosure.]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 15:24:33 -0500
To me it looks like, regardless of the merits, the hedge funds are piling on short positions and may target CRM as their next meal . 62x FY Jan 2010 earnings is VERY rich, and that's IF they manage to grow earning 60%+ in the worst economy in a generation.

1/3 of CRM's business is from small businesses and spending may grind to a halt there.

Great company but way overpriced in my view - what is the upside from here? Say they do hit the numbers and grow earnings by 60% in a brutal economy, fight off competition and price cuts from Oracle/Netsuite, etc. then they are still trading at 62x those earnings. So maybe it could go to $40?? But the downside is probably $10, so I think there are way better risk-adjusted bets out there. Somehow buying something like Intel (just to use an example) at 4.5x EBITDA seems like a better risk adjusted bet.

By the way I am short, for full disclosure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100411-bce-takeover-an-opportunity-for-opportunism-at-teachers?source=feed#comment-293803 293803
1) Teachers buys a bunch more stock in the $35 range.
2) Banks walk away/go bust/ or have the British gov't (RBS) or US gov't (Citi) legally let them off the hook
3) Deal falls apart
4) Shares go to $25
5) Teachers loses $10/share on the shares they already own PLUS the $10 per share on the shares they just bought PLUS the $1 Billion break fee.

Try explaining that outcome to the school teachers whose retirement is in your hands.

I think Teachers would argue that they have enough exposure to BCE as it is.

]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 16:59:12 -0400
1) Teachers buys a bunch more stock in the $35 range.
2) Banks walk away/go bust/ or have the British gov't (RBS) or US gov't (Citi) legally let them off the hook
3) Deal falls apart
4) Shares go to $25
5) Teachers loses $10/share on the shares they already own PLUS the $10 per share on the shares they just bought PLUS the $1 Billion break fee.

Try explaining that outcome to the school teachers whose retirement is in your hands.

I think Teachers would argue that they have enough exposure to BCE as it is.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102646-bce-inc-s-lbo-banks-where-s-the-common-sense?source=feed#comment-293794 293794
Teachers on the otherhand cannot legally amend its offer - the only way they can do so is to pay the $1B + break fee - realistically if they did that (which perhaps they should) the banks would scatter and the deal would be off. Plain and simple. All that would happen is that Teachers would be out $1B which would not be politically palitable for the folks at Teachers (try explaining to your board and your school teachers that you just wasted $1B).

The deal is unconditional. The banks are on the hook and the only way out is to beg the government to legislate them out of it (the Brits for RBS and Federal gov't for Citi).

A much more plausible and realistic scenario is for everyone to share the break fee - perhaps just the banks to get themselves off the hook. If they have $16 Billion in loans and have mark to market accounting they could easily have an instant loss of over $1B (the break fee) so why not just front the break fee to Teachers and everyone walk away? Much easier for Citi to right off a few hundred million these days along with the other Billions.

Very simple - deal goes through as is or someone pays $1 Billion.

Keep in mind that BCE is still public so if they get wind that the deal is in trouble they are obliged to disclose it right away or they'll get sued.

Hubris of biblical proportion trying to pull this one off.

Personally I think Bell is a train wreck of a company and Telus and Rogers will eat their lunch, especially with BCE's soon to be crippling debt load - not to mention when that debt has to be refinanced it will probably be at much higher rates.

For shame.]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 16:48:27 -0400
Teachers on the otherhand cannot legally amend its offer - the only way they can do so is to pay the $1B + break fee - realistically if they did that (which perhaps they should) the banks would scatter and the deal would be off. Plain and simple. All that would happen is that Teachers would be out $1B which would not be politically palitable for the folks at Teachers (try explaining to your board and your school teachers that you just wasted $1B).

The deal is unconditional. The banks are on the hook and the only way out is to beg the government to legislate them out of it (the Brits for RBS and Federal gov't for Citi).

A much more plausible and realistic scenario is for everyone to share the break fee - perhaps just the banks to get themselves off the hook. If they have $16 Billion in loans and have mark to market accounting they could easily have an instant loss of over $1B (the break fee) so why not just front the break fee to Teachers and everyone walk away? Much easier for Citi to right off a few hundred million these days along with the other Billions.

Very simple - deal goes through as is or someone pays $1 Billion.

Keep in mind that BCE is still public so if they get wind that the deal is in trouble they are obliged to disclose it right away or they'll get sued.

Hubris of biblical proportion trying to pull this one off.

Personally I think Bell is a train wreck of a company and Telus and Rogers will eat their lunch, especially with BCE's soon to be crippling debt load - not to mention when that debt has to be refinanced it will probably be at much higher rates.

For shame.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94366-the-paragraph-that-changed-the-world-will-treasuries-crash?source=feed#comment-248203 248203 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 09:41:36 -0400