dustinmyles

Why Microsoft's XBox 360 Will Outsell Nintendo's Wii

Why you are WRONG on a point-by-point basis:

1.) Kudos on your "prediction"; however - albeit a half-hearted Kudos, it can't REALLY be called a prediction on a count that common sense dictates that ALL consoles will receive price drops especially when they are as late in their life cycle as the 360 is.

2.) True Sony is making losses on the PS3, but this IS NOTHING NEW! Using the Playstation brand as a loss-leader has been their philosophy since the inception of the VERY FIRST Playstation.....and EVERYONE ALWAYS says the SAME THING: "They'll NEVER be able to regain their losses on that investment!" Truth be told, they HAVE made those losses back on BOTH previous iterations of the Playstation(s) (PSP included)...so don't be so eager to count your chickens before they hatch! The 360 had a little more than a FULL YEAR's head start on the PS3, and Sony has already caught up to them within a margin of 5 million units; and you know as well as anyone that if they continue to build momentum with their hardware it won't be long before they are surpassed....don't forget that the PS3 has been outselling the 360 ALMOST every month this year. Future market trends don't indicate a change in that pattern any where in the foreseeable future.

3). I Agree that the Wii is little more than a "glorified toy": I COMPLETELY AGREE with you there.....but that makes two of us! The numbers tell a different story however! While I personally LOVE Nintendo from a nastalgic viewpoint, I am COMPLETELY SICK of seeing the same old stale characters over and over and over! It's time for them to create SOME NEW IP's! But CLEARLY the ONLY thing Nintendo is interested in at the moment is making money hand over fist in an attempt to regain face lost on the abysmal performance of the Gamecube. Which is why they went with the Wii: to sell the same console (Gamecube) with a different controller interface.

4). The 360 has a larger library of games: True, its been out longer. The 360 is easier to develop for: True, its technology is old hat and no where near as advanced as the PS3's architecture. Even Todd from Bethesda has admitted that Fallout 3 is pushing the 360 to its limits, whereas the PS3 version doesn't even utilize the system full capabilities. As did Naughty Dog, the developer's of Drake's Fortune - which is one of the most graphically stunning title to date, admit that their game doesn't use but 40 - 50% of the PS3's processing power; and they could actually could improved upon it graphically had they been given a more lenient time table. I haven't even talked about Bluray; which, because of its sheer capacity, is able to hold ALOT more textures, shaders, particle emitters that can be installed on the harddrive for a game that is graphically more aesthetic, and from an audio standpoint: more dynamic. And yes, Microsoft has spent a HUGE AMOUNT of MONEY AND TIME trying to acquire Sony's OLD PS2 Exclusives, and they have succeeded to a certain extent; the PROBLEM with this approach is that while Microsoft is busing themselves trying to acquire Sony's OLD IP's, Sony is busy making NEW EXCLUSIVE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTIES like Little Big Planet, Heavenly Sword, Drake's Fortune, Resistance, and list goes on and on. Granted Microsoft has made a few new IP's, but that IS NOT where they have dedicated the majority of their resources. They've put MOST of their energy in trying to acquire Sony's OLD hand-me-downs. This is one of a few reasons that virtually EVERYONE has been calling 2008 the year of the PS3, however, the PS3 is JUST GETTING STARTED!!!

5). "Comparing the two machines side by side is like looking at a Ferrari next to a bicycle." The ONLY problem I have with this paragraph (and your entire thesis REALLY!) is that there is no mention of even including the PS3 in this equation...as if you have already written it off! Do NOT underestimate Sony, they are just getting started this generation where as the 360 seems to have already peeked, or prematurely eject-ulated....its HD format/360 disc....what? get your mind out of the gutter!

6.) YOU SAID:
"The Wii is going to have a very short production life, perhaps four years, before it is replaced by a SuperWii that will correct its weaknesses. The Xbox 360 is going to be in production for at least eight years, the last half of that life as the low cost partner to the Xbox 720 (Phoenix) in a two model range. So the 360 has a long time to catch up and overtake the Wii for total sales."
I SAY:
Nothing. I have not comment on this as it is PURE SPECULATION!!! Just because you made a "prediction" that was not REALLY a prediction more so than just common sense, does NOT mean that your going to be right about everything! Particularly things things this abstract.

7.) If and/or when Microsoft plans to put a 360 in an HDTV set, what brand of TV will they put it in?, and how much will they really be making given that they will have to split royalties with the TV manufacturer? It doesn't really sound like a viable option to me but I wouldn't put it outside of the realm of possibility. However, if combining HDTV's with consoles DOES become the future trend, I would expect Sony to have the upper hand as they have a HUGE line of High-Def sets and have been making them for quite some time. Not only that, but Sony WOULD NOT have to split profits with anyone as everything would be proprietary.

8.) I disagree that anybody - gamer or not - will EVER buy ANYTHING - by force or not - simply to be able to call themselves a "viable member of the gaming community." That is the weakest argument you've made through your entire pro-360 postulate. With the launch of HOME, it will be interesting to see how the scales will tip in regards to who will prefer which online experience. And Microsoft CLEARLY sees HOME as a threat, with the advent of their OH-SO-ORIGINAL Avatar system! And Sony did not copy Nintendo on this the way Microsoft did because the HOME project has been in development for a decade and was ORIGINALLY supposed to launched with the PS2 (same thing the motion sensing controller interface; Sony filed their patent for their version of WAAAAAAAY before Nintendo did, that's why Nintendo can't sue.Sony did it first, Nintendo copied the idea but with a different concept, or a "different" method of motion sensing i.e. IR and accelerometers vs. [Sony's ]gyro's - which work on strictly a "tilting" concept: whereas Nintendo's reads complete ROM/Range Of Motion).

9.) There are two problems with this argument that the 360 is NOW commercially viable in Japan:

A.) The 360 DOES NOT SELL FOR CRAP IN JAPAN! The Japanese have a sense of "National Pride" in purchasing their own products, specifically those from Sony and Nintendo. In addition to the fact that the 360 is American made, the other negative for the 360 in their (and everyone else's) eyes is the ridiculously, inexcusably HIGH hardware FAILURE rate of the 360.

B.) The second problem is this: For the hardcore/casual gamer that wants to get the BEST POSSIBLE 360 experience - that means online and ALL - they would have to buy ALOT of peripherals. While this doesn't sound like a major problem, it really is on the count that EVERY SINGLE PERIPHERAL IS PROPRIETARY ONLY! HD Cables, Wifi recievers, Hard Drives, Online, and more!!!! In reality, If you were go and BUY EVERYTHING that the PS3 comes with RIGHT OUT OF THE BOX you would be spending 250-300$ MORE for the 360 than the PS3! Now, mind you, that was BEFORE THE PRICE CUTS from MICROSOFT! Now AFTER THE PRICE CUTS, YOUR STILL SPENDING ABOUT 50$ MORE FOR THE 360 - which has proved itself to be unreliable at best and always at risk of the Red Ring of Death - just to get it up to speed with EVERYTHING THE PS3 has RIGHT OUT OF THE BOX....and FREE ONLINE ACCESS AS WELL!!! These are facts that Microsoft seems so apt at NOT disclosing! These are also WHY THE CONSOLE DOESN"T SELL WELL IN JAPAN! They (the Japanese, as would I) would rather buy the more advanced, more reliable (RROD) hardware at a better value/lower price point, and with a longer shelf life than a system that is known to crash, and ULTIMATELY COSTS MORE THAT THE PS3 TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WHAT THE PS3 COMES WITH RIGHT OUT OF THE BOX!!!!

And its a REAL BUMMER for me too as an American! I REALLY WISH that Microsoft had the superior hardware. But this is what happens when you rush a console to market out of the theory that being the first to launch would be all that is necessary to secure victory in this generation of the console wars! One thing that is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN, is that THIS IS NOT THE CASE...look at Nintendo! And while I personally feel Nintendo is ripping people off by forcing them to re-purchase the Gamecube with a gimmicky controller interface, I congratulate them on their success! If I ever acquire a Wii, it will NOT be with MY MONEY! And I will hack it and NEVER buy a game from them either!; they've got ENOUGH money, they don't need mine! But REALLY HAVE NO INTEREST in a Wii. I - like most folks - want the best of the best - which entails the PS3, and the 360....not the Pii, I mean WiiWii, I mean Wii.