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  • The REIT Numbers Don't Lie, Check The Score Board [View article]
    China has the same problem Japan did when Japan was a rising power--demographics. While the US has the problem with the baby boomers reaching retirement, Japan has already suffered the problem (hence no growth for 30 years), and China is about to suffer the same problem.

    Surely you have seen pictures of entire cities (many built with Western themes) which are called ghost cities because millions of vacant living spaces litter the countryside. I view China an implosion just needing a trigger.

    A Chinese expat who just returned from visiting his homeland (he works in the adjoining office) tells me he thinks things are far worse than presented in the Western press. He dumped all his Chinese related holdings--he has insight into China I do not.
    Aug 22 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA reportedly near $16B-$17B deal with DOJ [View news story]
    Mr. Moynihan served as the General Counsel at Bank of America Corporation from December 2008 to January 2010 and also as its Head of Consumer Banking from August 2009 to January 2010. He served as the President of Global Wealth and Investment Management at Bank of America Corporation from April 2004 to October 2007

    So you are correct he was not chief legal counsel. But giving him a pass for the shenanigans that went on at BAC is wrong. If memory serves me correctly, Moynihan got the job because BAC is such a mess, no reputable banker could be recruited to take the job.

    It is time for a change! C got rid of their jerk, it is time for BAC to do the same, and bring someone in to clean up the mess instead of having someone in charge who seems capable only of saying this is behind us and then more crap hits the fan.

    If someone were running BAC who was perceived as actually cleaning up the mess, rather than litigating (seems to be Moynihan's only strength), BAC would probably be a $40 stock again.
    Aug 8 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA reportedly near $16B-$17B deal with DOJ [View news story]
    Previous management? Moynihan was chief legal counsel when these deals were made. He is not exactly "previous management". The day Moynihan is replaced BAC stock will begin to recover.

    A lawyer with an MBA degree. How about getting someone with bank operating experience to run the bank so the suffering shareholders can start getting some of the value of the BAC franchise?

    I'm tired of hearing Moynihan say the legal difficulties are over (while the 10K says otherwise) and then (not so suddenly) another few $billion out the door. Still none of the miscreants in jail. Everybody has paid a price EXCEPT those who caused the problem.
    Aug 7 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA reportedly near $16B-$17B deal with DOJ [View news story]
    I guess you did not see the 11 biggest banks did not have acceptable plans to avoid causing another economic crisis in case of failure. The banks have until next year to either write acceptable go-out-of-business plans, be forced to raise additional capital, of face being force to split up.

    Best thing that could happen to BAC if for Moynihan (who, as chief legal counsel blessed all the rotten schemes) and be replaced by someone who can figure out how to stop the bleeding, rather than fighting legal battles year after year after year.

    Enough of Moynihan already! His pronouncements have been wrong so much of the time, one wonders what the BOD is doing (other than collecting their over-sized fees and benefits).
    Aug 6 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Each person must make decisions based on where they are in life's path. A week or so ago, I bought a stock for its very safe dividend. In a week's time it went up by almost 3 years worth of dividends. Since I am in my 70's, I said thank you to Mr. Market for advancing the dividends I was expecting in the future into the present.

    Would I have done this 40 years ago? No. But if the market takes a header, I may not live long enough for a recovery, and I don't want to be forced to become a WalMart greeter. It did take 25 years to recover from the '29 crash.

    Market tops seem to be marked by M&A mania. If we are not there yet, I would guess we are well down the path. There is lots of research showing M&A generally results in significant write offs or write downs within 3 years of the transaction.
    But M&A makes the wheeler-dealers on Wall Street able to buy even more toys--especially since most of them have moved, or are thinking about moving, to Puerto Rico.
    Jul 25 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: A Turnaround You Shouldn't Miss [View article]
    Nothing like making a major unstated assumption such that when the US starts exporting NG, NG prices are going to soar, perhaps to be very near the current world level. If NG price soars, there will be a stampede to NG vehicles?

    Last year's severe draw down indicates that supply might not be sufficient to meet a whole lot of new demand. Mr. Market will adjust the price to get the demand level down to the supply level.
    Jul 1 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Is A Case Study Of 'Sneaky Dilution' [View article]
    Buffett has always said buy good management. Until there is a management change, this company should be avoided. When management continually misleads the investing public, they deserve to be fired, not rewarded.

    Overpaid for POM, issuing 50 million or so shares, and 20 million equity units. Earnings will have to increase 8-10% just to keep the boat at its current low level in the water. Of course, management is trumpeting "accretive to earnings..." blah, blah, blah--but we heard that story with CEG.

    If ever a company deserved to have a BOD shakeup, EXC fits the bill.
    Jun 29 10:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP: A Possible Tax Inversion Takeover Target [View article]
    Oil company does this and the screams to eliminate all the various tax loopholes currently enjoyed by the oil companies will rise to new heights.
    Jun 24 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend 30: A Retirement Strategy [View article]
    Does one really need 30 stocks? Unless one can spend at least an hour per week per stock you would have to be either a professional money manager, or have nothing else in your life. Reading, and more importantly, reading closely the footnotes in reports where all the bad stuff is hidden, is a time consuming exercise.

    The footnotes are where the warning flags that not all is well are hidden. Fully understanding the footnotes in almost any 10K is not a trivial speed reading exercise. I think perhaps 10-12 of one's very best ideas in 5-8 sectors is more likely to be manageable. Three of my favorite investors have weighed in on the subject:

    Warren Buffett: “Diversification is protection against ignorance.”
    Peter Lynch has referred to diversification as “deworsification,”
    Charlie Munger has said that “wide diversification, which necessarily includes investment in mediocre businesses, only guarantees ordinary results.”
    Jun 21 09:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: Expect An Improved Offer For Alstom [View article]
    Nothing says market topping more than companies either buying back over-priced shares (GE buying in the 30's, then selling shares for a small fraction shortly thereafter) or companies paying way too much during merger mania (GE and Abbott among others this month).

    One is buy high, sell low. The other is just plain silly--very few mergers and buyouts are successful. The buying company generally ends up writing off a significant portion of the purchased company within 3-5 years.

    But it does lead immediately to much higher "management" bonuses.

    Keep that cash around--do buybacks the next time the market has a hiccup instead of selling shares below book value. That just makes people with cash (think Buffett) rich.
    Jun 20 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Reminds Us That Value Investing Is Not Popular Investing [View article]
    The key in the whole article "... concerns from regulators had more to do with Bank of America's management...". Moynihan was the chief legal officer when the issues hanging over BAC were taking place. Some of the quotes I have seen attributed to him are quite contrary to what happens later. I'd have a better feeling about BAC if it were run by a banker rather than a lawyer.
    Jun 19 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Dead Money Stocks To Sell Now, Part II [View article]

    Yes, the attention is focused on FFO--but, why is it that ARCP's highly rated competitors pay lower dividend rates, but have higher and more stable prices that ARCP? Is it because they pay dividends out of NOI with well less than a 100% ratio? The dividend comes either out of NOI or ROC.
    8% clearly says Mr. Market thinks a dividend cut is coming--or Mr. Market is wrong (entirely possible). I prefer not to fight Mr. Market.

    ARCP may turn out to be a homerun--but under the current management it is speculation in my portfolio, not something I view as a dependable for a source of income. Hence, it is currently a very small portfolio portion. I am patient--I expect the dividend to be reduced; then will be the time to build the full position--still speculative, but with a better chance of success.
    Jun 15 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Realty Income Is In My Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Net income may not be the only number to consider in buying REITs, but starting with postive net income during the good times makes it much easier to sustain dividends during the bad times. During bad times some tenants will go the Chapter 11 route leading to the leases being terminated.

    One of the reasons O pays a lower rate than some of its hyped competitors comes from operating in the black--net income alone being enough to cover the dividend.
    Jun 15 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Realty Income Is In My Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Precisely why REITs should be held in an IRA or similar tax deferred vehicle.
    Jun 15 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Dead Money Stocks To Sell Now, Part II [View article]
    ARCP may have a current 8% yield, but it also has negative operating income. Even REITs can only live on depreciation for so long. I suspect ARCP will shortly be making a reduction in the dividend.
    Jun 12 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment