Cesato

Don't Chase the Markets Up

I've seen this endlessly since I read this blog, don't you guys realize that markets are moving seasonlly even though the conditions are un precedented? 1Q and the first have of 2Q have always been bullish for all markets then the second half of 2Q is sort of range bound for a significant sell-off in 3Q and then a strong rebound into 4Q with a possibility of follow throuhg into the following year. If you really wanna hope into the bull trend for real buy Gold and Silver in Mid-October and then you can say I told you, meantime do your own homework do not be fooled by hoping bugs who have no increase their networth in a year (Gold and Silver price are at the same level of May 2008).

Gold: The Next Big Stock Market Bubble

You got it right but the right shoulder bottom will be set in Oct 2009, don't rush too much on finding the right shoulder in 2Q/3Q.

The Bullish Case for Silver

I've heard the same argument for 3 years in a row. Nothing is gonna happen before Oct 2009, meantime silver and gold holders will be collectors rather than investors. Give me real fundamentals and then I would agree with everyone. Buying now is a waste of time and money, Oct 2009 will be the time to buy by tonnes of both metals at a serious long-term price bottom (gold USD 760, silver USD 10.5). Sorry for being straightforward but the deal here is to make money..

Gold Is a Good Bet, Soros Implies

When any of the Gold Bugs commenting here makes 1 million dollars, actually cashed out, from holding physical Gold it will be easy to notice because he/she won't be writing in this blog anymore, this site became a fountain of hope for extremist Gold bugs instead of a source of knowledge as it was initially intended.

What to Do with Gold?

A screaming SELL is the signal now, pride doesn't make you money just a goldbug!!!

Gold Approaching 200-Day Moving Average

Momentun is supporting the downtrend in Gold, as expected; it won't be a one way move down but rather a roller coaster with a lot of volatility at least for the 2 next cycles, however our target at USD 785 is looking more achievable so I'm actually lowering it down to USD 760. If you look at the charts the multiannual lows have been increasing by USD 100 per year, it was USD 560 in 2007, USD 660 in 2008 and why could it not be USD 760 in 2009? I still believe that we are going to have to wait until Oct 2009 to see that USD 760 become a solid support and then build up an aggressive acumulative position for the next 2 years. Meantime, volatility will be high and a broad range between USD 850 and USD 950 will be the standard till July 2009. Playing the volatility in the fortnightly cycle will be very rewarding until when a clear signal for either a long term position or long term physical buying is given by the market. Beware of Goldbugs they don't know the word SELL and it is constantly reflected in their analysis and comentaries, hence their ability to make money short/medium term is quite disappointing, don't trust my word just look at the spot price USD 150 (or 15%) lower than the 110 weeks high.

What to Do with Gold?

Sell it all now, buy it all back in Oct at USD 760 for a 2 year bull trend. Finish Palabra!!

Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default?

Nobody saved anything, it is how the markets works. As soon as you understand market cycles you will be buying at the right time, selling timely and buying back near bottoms. Big players (real winners, not losers like already broken investment Banks) in Gold are diversified in their portfolios and constantly keeping a balance between those assets. It's been more than a year since the manipulation theory (inexistent by the way) has been discussed in order to justify losses from uneducated investors who don't realize that following the trend and identifying the corrections associated with other assets' moves makes you a winner. I really got tired of that manipulation discussion, buy low sell high and add to breakouts either if you are long or short, it does not get any simpler that that. If you were making money you would not waste your time digging into theories but explaining why the market does what it does without taking you off-guard. Remember that physical Gold can be bought and sold for a profit as well, you don't have to keep it under the mattress just for pride, it is a way to make money and still have physical on your net worth long term, playing paper Gold as a hedge is another means to make some money short-term if you are in love with the physical stuff. For now the trend in Gold continues and will continue down for a while.

Why Gold Is Overpriced

RG2009

The price of Gold has not even been able to test the USD 988 level so far, this level was the one which triggered a major sell-off last year. I do really expect a try up to USD 988 within the next 2 months but also I still believe that the massive double top being identified in the chars will take the price down to the USD 800/700 level; some may consider it further consolidation of the 1 year-long trading range, which I would agree with, others will become bears, goldbugs will suffer a lot but in the end it will be the last run down prior to a strong 2 year long uptrend. We will be short-term buyers in June 2009, then strongly bearish from July to September 2009 and then will make every attempt to find a bottom between September 2009 and January 2010 for a 2 year bull run, provided that the price never goes below USD 500 before the end of the year. The bull run will take the price at least to USD 2.000 by 2011. Of course traders and scalpers will play the volalitibilty, long term goldbugs will make money but probably much less than they could have if they weren't that stubborn as far as not selling these days. The strategy through the end of the year is to buy short-term, take profit on a daily/weekly basis then sell short strong rallies, take profit on a fortnightly basis and buy it all at the USD 700/600 level for a continuation of the multiyear bull trend until sometime between 2011 and 2013. Sell following Gold fundamentals, as I believe you understand them very well, unless you don't care about 50% price swings then you are ok for next 3 years, as far as maintaining your purchasing power long-term. If you still want to hold your physical Gold, play paper Gold to hedge your investment and make good money. There is no point on having your vault full of coins/bars if you can't cash out and make a life out of it.


On Apr 01 08:08 AM RG2009 wrote:

> I'm definitely not impressed by this sort of analysis. Gold is nowhere
> near underpriced, and being bearish about it seems like outright
> nonsense to me. Then again, its just my opinion...and that of many
> other blogs and articles i've read...but then, we could be all wrong!
> What are the odds? Time will tell.

Gold Holders - Be Patient

As good as it seemed the last rally in Gold looks to have run out of stem. It may not be different than any other impressive rally we've seen in Gold before. Today, rather than analyzing technical indicators, we should be looking at fundamentals that won't support Gold any longer short term. On the one hand risk aversion is slowly dissipating and to prove it the DJIA is going to close above 800 today, a 1500 points rally since the 6500 (around) lows, that is a convincing turning point. On the other hand Governments are increasingly working together to force the market to stabilize so that confidence gets back and then panic fades away. Remarkably, Corporate America is humbly giving the market a hand (as it should have been 2 months ago) and the US Goverment appears to be willing to deliver the message to the fraudulent executive staff that got us into this mess in the first place (you can read AIG and 80% of the investment banks, if you will) even though taxpayer's money is unlikely to be recouped from those scammers. Additionally, with deflation fears going away, it is unlikely that inflationary pressures coming from increased demand and higher commodity prices hit the market short term, Oil is going nowhere beyond the USD 60 level and regulatory measures taken so far will keep market bandits (speculators) in the sidelines for a little while. All the above scenario will be valid until when inflation numbers (still under control) begin to creep up as a result of the increase in Money Supply and stabilization of the demand with the supply side of the equation having been destroyed, however if won't happen just yet, so sell the rally in Gold and buy back later in the year somewhere between USD 820 and USD 850 may be USD 785.

Why Gold Prices Didn't Really Rise Last Week

Retail investors will drive the price lower to attract demand from buyers who are currently in the sidelines (i.e. jewerly), once those buyers are lured back into the market then the price will rise once again, meantime the trend is down, sell USD 30 rallies and you will stay in the trend. The manipulation theory has never had real support, from my standpoint, if you got the money you move the market at your will so you can make good money, as simple as that, USD 800 will be a good buy later in the year. On the other hand Mining stocks will do extremely well, short term, that is a good alternative, miners lagged for a long time and will outperform Gold itself for now.

Gold Continues to Outperform Other Assets

As good as it seemed the last rally in Gold looks to have run out of stem. It may not be different than any other impressive rally we've seen in Gold before. Today, rather than analyzing technical indicators, we should be looking at fundamentals that won't support Gold any longer short term. On the one hand risk aversion is slowly dissipating and to prove it the DJIA is going to close above 7500 today, a 1000 points rally since the 6500 (around) lows, that is a convincing turning point. On the other hand Governments are increasingly working together to force the market to stabilize so that confidence gets back and then panic fades away. Remarkably, Corporate America is humbly giving the market a hand (as it should have been 2 months ago) and the US Goverment appears to be willing to deliver the message to the fraudulent executive staff that got us into this mess in the first place (you can read AIG and 80% of the investment banks, if you will) even though taxpayer's money is unlikely to be recouped from those scammers. Additionally, with deflation fears going away, it is unlikely that inflationary pressures coming from increased demand and higher commodity prices hit the market short term, Oil is going nowhere beyond the USD 60 level and regulatory measures taken so far will keep market bandits (speculators) in the sidelines for a little while. All the above scenario will be valid until when inflation numbers (still under control) begin to creep up as a result of the increase in Money Supply and stabilization of the demand with the supply side of the equation having been destroyed, however if won't happen just yet, so sell the rally in Gold and buy back later in the year somewhere between USD 820 and USD 850 may be USD 785.

If Bear Market Rally Unfolds, Diversify Risk

You are right, the money hasn't hit the market yet but it's there in Governments' vaults. GoldMarketPaul made a point regarding Japan but the USA does not have a short term memory. As soon as the money hits the market and people feel good, not because they are back where they were before but because they will not be as bad as they are now, consumption will irresponsibly resume, as usual. Add supply destruction to the equation plus increase in Money Supply and you have the perfect scenario for inflation. If you are in precious metals don't wait for the first sign of inflation (probably months away)otherwise it will be too late, remember that Gold in particular is a leading indicator, however don't fall in love with your physical holdings, in real life anything may happen.

On Mar 13 08:20 AM Andy1234 wrote:

> I am not sure how to view the deflation/inflation argument for the
> short term.
>
> Most of the money created to get inflation is lending by the banks.....and
> money being pulled from home equity....and house prices increasing.......which
> opens up more lending...etc.
>
> I just don't see house prices increasing anytime soon....in fact....I
> see more declines ahead (Alt-A and option ARM resets)......so I understand
> the government is printing money like crazy.....but the banks are
> lending. And the only way that money gets to the public is through
> loans....correct? So if they aren't loaning....the money just sits
> there. I am split on the deflation/inflation call on the short term.....definitely
> have inflation long term.

If Bear Market Rally Unfolds, Diversify Risk

I agree with paulaut, did we not hear the same argument when Dow hit 7500 last year? Nobody has a workable crystal ball at the moment. If the article suggests a buy, hold, get off breakeven on a reversal and wait, then agressive investors could try the bull instance considering than being cash is not giving us any return anyway but this kind of calls are somewhat irresponsible. Let's see what the earnings season brings us, although there are very attractive bargains out there the crisis has not hit a credible bottom yet nor will it anytime soon. Do you see why people are still extremely bullish in Gold and Silver?

Is the Dollar Rally Over Now?

In my view it was over since January, I don't think that USD weakness will be the result of either European or Asian economies outperforming the American economy, I believe the US goverment will trigger the USD sell-off to a levels around USD 1.40/1.50, EUR/USD wise.