Cesato's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/258353/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/139133-don-t-chase-the-markets-up?source=feed#comment-514370 514370 Fri, 22 May 2009 10:45:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133523-gold-the-next-big-stock-market-bubble?source=feed#comment-484145 484145 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 11:49:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134284-the-bullish-case-for-silver?source=feed#comment-484130 484130 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 11:42:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130116-gold-is-a-good-bet-soros-implies?source=feed#comment-457015 457015 Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:29:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129850-what-to-do-with-gold?source=feed#comment-454924 454924 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 11:43:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129768-gold-approaching-200-day-moving-average?source=feed#comment-454651 454651 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 09:13:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129850-what-to-do-with-gold?source=feed#comment-454635 454635 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 09:09:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129128-did-the-ecb-save-comex-from-gold-default?source=feed#comment-449130 449130 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 09:45:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128865-why-gold-is-overpriced?source=feed#comment-447754 447754
The price of Gold has not even been able to test the USD 988 level so far, this level was the one which triggered a major sell-off last year. I do really expect a try up to USD 988 within the next 2 months but also I still believe that the massive double top being identified in the chars will take the price down to the USD 800/700 level; some may consider it further consolidation of the 1 year-long trading range, which I would agree with, others will become bears, goldbugs will suffer a lot but in the end it will be the last run down prior to a strong 2 year long uptrend. We will be short-term buyers in June 2009, then strongly bearish from July to September 2009 and then will make every attempt to find a bottom between September 2009 and January 2010 for a 2 year bull run, provided that the price never goes below USD 500 before the end of the year. The bull run will take the price at least to USD 2.000 by 2011. Of course traders and scalpers will play the volalitibilty, long term goldbugs will make money but probably much less than they could have if they weren't that stubborn as far as not selling these days. The strategy through the end of the year is to buy short-term, take profit on a daily/weekly basis then sell short strong rallies, take profit on a fortnightly basis and buy it all at the USD 700/600 level for a continuation of the multiyear bull trend until sometime between 2011 and 2013. Sell following Gold fundamentals, as I believe you understand them very well, unless you don't care about 50% price swings then you are ok for next 3 years, as far as maintaining your purchasing power long-term. If you still want to hold your physical Gold, play paper Gold to hedge your investment and make good money. There is no point on having your vault full of coins/bars if you can't cash out and make a life out of it.


On Apr 01 08:08 AM RG2009 wrote:

> I'm definitely not impressed by this sort of analysis. Gold is nowhere
> near underpriced, and being bearish about it seems like outright
> nonsense to me. Then again, its just my opinion...and that of many
> other blogs and articles i've read...but then, we could be all wrong!
> What are the odds? Time will tell.]]> Wed, 01 Apr 2009 09:22:15 -0400
The price of Gold has not even been able to test the USD 988 level so far, this level was the one which triggered a major sell-off last year. I do really expect a try up to USD 988 within the next 2 months but also I still believe that the massive double top being identified in the chars will take the price down to the USD 800/700 level; some may consider it further consolidation of the 1 year-long trading range, which I would agree with, others will become bears, goldbugs will suffer a lot but in the end it will be the last run down prior to a strong 2 year long uptrend. We will be short-term buyers in June 2009, then strongly bearish from July to September 2009 and then will make every attempt to find a bottom between September 2009 and January 2010 for a 2 year bull run, provided that the price never goes below USD 500 before the end of the year. The bull run will take the price at least to USD 2.000 by 2011. Of course traders and scalpers will play the volalitibilty, long term goldbugs will make money but probably much less than they could have if they weren't that stubborn as far as not selling these days. The strategy through the end of the year is to buy short-term, take profit on a daily/weekly basis then sell short strong rallies, take profit on a fortnightly basis and buy it all at the USD 700/600 level for a continuation of the multiyear bull trend until sometime between 2011 and 2013. Sell following Gold fundamentals, as I believe you understand them very well, unless you don't care about 50% price swings then you are ok for next 3 years, as far as maintaining your purchasing power long-term. If you still want to hold your physical Gold, play paper Gold to hedge your investment and make good money. There is no point on having your vault full of coins/bars if you can't cash out and make a life out of it.


On Apr 01 08:08 AM RG2009 wrote:

> I'm definitely not impressed by this sort of analysis. Gold is nowhere
> near underpriced, and being bearish about it seems like outright
> nonsense to me. Then again, its just my opinion...and that of many
> other blogs and articles i've read...but then, we could be all wrong!
> What are the odds? Time will tell.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127554-gold-holders-be-patient?source=feed#comment-438120 438120 Tue, 24 Mar 2009 10:50:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127519-why-gold-prices-didn-t-really-rise-last-week?source=feed#comment-437964 437964 Tue, 24 Mar 2009 09:34:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127353-gold-continues-to-outperform-other-assets?source=feed#comment-436486 436486 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 10:24:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125838-if-bear-market-rally-unfolds-diversify-risk?source=feed#comment-424622 424622
On Mar 13 08:20 AM Andy1234 wrote:

> I am not sure how to view the deflation/inflation argument for the
> short term.
>
> Most of the money created to get inflation is lending by the banks.....and
> money being pulled from home equity....and house prices increasing.......which
> opens up more lending...etc.
>
> I just don't see house prices increasing anytime soon....in fact....I
> see more declines ahead (Alt-A and option ARM resets)......so I understand
> the government is printing money like crazy.....but the banks are
> lending. And the only way that money gets to the public is through
> loans....correct? So if they aren't loaning....the money just sits
> there. I am split on the deflation/inflation call on the short term.....definitely
> have inflation long term.]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 12:23:15 -0400
On Mar 13 08:20 AM Andy1234 wrote:

> I am not sure how to view the deflation/inflation argument for the
> short term.
>
> Most of the money created to get inflation is lending by the banks.....and
> money being pulled from home equity....and house prices increasing.......which
> opens up more lending...etc.
>
> I just don't see house prices increasing anytime soon....in fact....I
> see more declines ahead (Alt-A and option ARM resets)......so I understand
> the government is printing money like crazy.....but the banks are
> lending. And the only way that money gets to the public is through
> loans....correct? So if they aren't loaning....the money just sits
> there. I am split on the deflation/inflation call on the short term.....definitely
> have inflation long term.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125838-if-bear-market-rally-unfolds-diversify-risk?source=feed#comment-424134 424134 Fri, 13 Mar 2009 07:25:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125554-is-the-dollar-rally-over-now?source=feed#comment-422868 422868 Thu, 12 Mar 2009 08:28:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125402-bearish-sentiment-in-the-gold-stock-and-commodity-markets?source=feed#comment-422537 422537 Wed, 11 Mar 2009 22:35:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125282-gold-ignore-short-term-movements?source=feed#comment-422199 422199
Any thoughts?]]> Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:02:14 -0400
Any thoughts?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125402-bearish-sentiment-in-the-gold-stock-and-commodity-markets?source=feed#comment-422188 422188 Wed, 11 Mar 2009 15:53:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125137-gold-bug-fever-raises-many-questions?source=feed#comment-420956 420956 analyste de boston your commnent make a lot of sense, physical Gold holders who do not hedge their Gold can not be called investors, you don't own Gold for the sake of having it, you own it because you want to keep the value of your net worth, however when the price comes down some Gold bugs only talk about buying physical Gold but very few times can speak wisely, as you do, about a strategy to protect your holdings, GLD is an alternative to do so. For me a USD 100 price change is very important, now if the intention is to have a long term investment you don't even track the price on a daily basis do you? I do because I do both, own gold and hedge it so I can cash out when volatility allows me. When you are bullish long term, as I am, you hedge the investment on a downtrend and buy a bit more physical gold on a reversal.

On Mar 10 02:46 PM analyste de boston wrote:

> GLD is paper gold, a portfolio hedge against greater equity losses
> and a speculative instrument. If we're heading for > $1,500./oz,
> the case for paper gold starts disintegrating. You don't own any
> bullion with GLD shares, people!
>
> Smart money, by contrast, has been moving into allocated PHYSICAL
> holdings - understand the difference - and at much smaller allocations,
> 3-6%. Does that make one a "gold bug"? Of course not. It makes one
> prudent, cautious, DEFENSIVE.
>
> OTOH, paper assets are just that: consult your Madoff quarterly statements
> please. Paper gold should suffer in an equity rally, as SPECULATIVE
> assets head back to equity stakes. But don't miss the big picture
> or draw the wrong conclusions.
>
> Remain defensive, and take any opportunity to BUY physical at $750.-800./oz,
> even as you sell GLD. Trade up into true value whenever you can!]]> Tue, 10 Mar 2009 16:47:47 -0400 analyste de boston your commnent make a lot of sense, physical Gold holders who do not hedge their Gold can not be called investors, you don't own Gold for the sake of having it, you own it because you want to keep the value of your net worth, however when the price comes down some Gold bugs only talk about buying physical Gold but very few times can speak wisely, as you do, about a strategy to protect your holdings, GLD is an alternative to do so. For me a USD 100 price change is very important, now if the intention is to have a long term investment you don't even track the price on a daily basis do you? I do because I do both, own gold and hedge it so I can cash out when volatility allows me. When you are bullish long term, as I am, you hedge the investment on a downtrend and buy a bit more physical gold on a reversal.

On Mar 10 02:46 PM analyste de boston wrote:

> GLD is paper gold, a portfolio hedge against greater equity losses
> and a speculative instrument. If we're heading for > $1,500./oz,
> the case for paper gold starts disintegrating. You don't own any
> bullion with GLD shares, people!
>
> Smart money, by contrast, has been moving into allocated PHYSICAL
> holdings - understand the difference - and at much smaller allocations,
> 3-6%. Does that make one a "gold bug"? Of course not. It makes one
> prudent, cautious, DEFENSIVE.
>
> OTOH, paper assets are just that: consult your Madoff quarterly statements
> please. Paper gold should suffer in an equity rally, as SPECULATIVE
> assets head back to equity stakes. But don't miss the big picture
> or draw the wrong conclusions.
>
> Remain defensive, and take any opportunity to BUY physical at $750.-800./oz,
> even as you sell GLD. Trade up into true value whenever you can!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125137-gold-bug-fever-raises-many-questions?source=feed#comment-420636 420636
The price of Gold is working its way down to USD 900/882. As stated in my last post, those senseless rallies can only end up with a nasty sell-off and history has proven right once again. I will still try to buy/add on a dip to USD 882 or probably USD 900 again if momentum fades out before USD 882, for a run to USD 1.200 however there is a scary pattern developing and it is nothing different than a carbon copy of last year's 1Q move. If USD 988 is not broken within the next 2 weeks so that the possibility of a massive double top is taken away then either a sell short trade (in order to hedge your physical Gold) or a sell will be mandatory, risking 50% of the profit made in the most recent rally. There is no manipulation theory working here, it is just a need for cash in one of the few profitable markets seen lately. Unless you are either an agressive short seller in the stock market, chose safe but unprofitable investments like treasuries or simply decided to go short USD then Gold and Silver have given you some financial satisfaction this year. Again I would expect a strong rebound at USD 882 for a try up to USD 988 but if USD 988 is not taken away this quarter, hold your horses because the sell-off is going to be tremendously painful, primarily for stubborn goldbugs. ]]> Tue, 10 Mar 2009 12:43:33 -0400
The price of Gold is working its way down to USD 900/882. As stated in my last post, those senseless rallies can only end up with a nasty sell-off and history has proven right once again. I will still try to buy/add on a dip to USD 882 or probably USD 900 again if momentum fades out before USD 882, for a run to USD 1.200 however there is a scary pattern developing and it is nothing different than a carbon copy of last year's 1Q move. If USD 988 is not broken within the next 2 weeks so that the possibility of a massive double top is taken away then either a sell short trade (in order to hedge your physical Gold) or a sell will be mandatory, risking 50% of the profit made in the most recent rally. There is no manipulation theory working here, it is just a need for cash in one of the few profitable markets seen lately. Unless you are either an agressive short seller in the stock market, chose safe but unprofitable investments like treasuries or simply decided to go short USD then Gold and Silver have given you some financial satisfaction this year. Again I would expect a strong rebound at USD 882 for a try up to USD 988 but if USD 988 is not taken away this quarter, hold your horses because the sell-off is going to be tremendously painful, primarily for stubborn goldbugs. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124888-has-gold-s-downward-trend-ended?source=feed#comment-419045 419045 Mon, 09 Mar 2009 09:56:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124336-gold-an-investment-market-update?source=feed#comment-415845 415845

On Mar 06 09:47 AM Slimsum wrote:

> Cesato? Would you try saying that again in English?]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 10:05:28 -0500

On Mar 06 09:47 AM Slimsum wrote:

> Cesato? Would you try saying that again in English?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124555-gold-entering-an-accelerated-trend-channel?source=feed#comment-415800 415800 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 09:43:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124517-silver-backwardation-prices-about-to-soar?source=feed#comment-415629 415629 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 08:23:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124202-gold-correction-necessary-and-healthy?source=feed#comment-415510 415510 Got it, thanks!

On Mar 05 12:27 PM sakata wrote:

> I wasn't saying they were silly. On the contrary, if they make money
> in this economic climate they are wise. It was those who get all
> bent out of shape about it that I was saying should stay on the side
> lines. People who take a rational approach to whatever type of trading
> they prefer will be fine. It is just that I get tired of people who,
> on the one hand, seem to propound short term trading but, on the
> other, talking about a secular bull market in gold.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 05:46:01 -0500 Got it, thanks!

On Mar 05 12:27 PM sakata wrote:

> I wasn't saying they were silly. On the contrary, if they make money
> in this economic climate they are wise. It was those who get all
> bent out of shape about it that I was saying should stay on the side
> lines. People who take a rational approach to whatever type of trading
> they prefer will be fine. It is just that I get tired of people who,
> on the one hand, seem to propound short term trading but, on the
> other, talking about a secular bull market in gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124336-gold-an-investment-market-update?source=feed#comment-415044 415044 Thu, 05 Mar 2009 18:36:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124202-gold-correction-necessary-and-healthy?source=feed#comment-414315 414315

On Mar 05 08:17 AM sakata wrote:

> People who get bend out of shape over the price of gold should not
> be investing in it. They have a trader's mentality which is not suited
> to precious metals. Unless you are trading in paper gold, which is
> not really gold in the first place, you are dealing with a relatively
> illiquid commodity and which is not going to get you reliably short
> term returns (it does offer some good specualtive returns, but not
> for the physical stuff). Gold, and silver even more so, are long
> term investments. A ten percent change in either direction over the
> short term is not a cause for excitement or despair. Come back in
> three years and let's]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 11:26:54 -0500

On Mar 05 08:17 AM sakata wrote:

> People who get bend out of shape over the price of gold should not
> be investing in it. They have a trader's mentality which is not suited
> to precious metals. Unless you are trading in paper gold, which is
> not really gold in the first place, you are dealing with a relatively
> illiquid commodity and which is not going to get you reliably short
> term returns (it does offer some good specualtive returns, but not
> for the physical stuff). Gold, and silver even more so, are long
> term investments. A ten percent change in either direction over the
> short term is not a cause for excitement or despair. Come back in
> three years and let's]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124202-gold-correction-necessary-and-healthy?source=feed#comment-414290 414290 Thu, 05 Mar 2009 11:16:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124336-gold-an-investment-market-update?source=feed#comment-414273 414273 Thu, 05 Mar 2009 11:09:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124060-cramer-s-mad-money-10-signs-of-hope-3-3-09?source=feed#comment-412376 412376
Pretty easy for Cramer this time, there is more room up that down, it's kind of self-fulfilling prediction. Ever a short covering rally will make him look godd a for a little while.]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 08:38:37 -0500
Pretty easy for Cramer this time, there is more room up that down, it's kind of self-fulfilling prediction. Ever a short covering rally will make him look godd a for a little while.]]>