tekram

Hydrogen-Fueled Cars Become a Thing of the Present

No such thing as a simple H2 reformer. It is a dirty (CO, CO2 )low efficient, high energy process. The resulting impure hydrogen is unusable as fuel cell fuel.

On Nov 03 10:26 PM 123andy wrote:

> If you have natural gas in your house you can make H2 by a simple
> reformer.
>

The lithium-ion batteries retain 70% to 80% of their residual capacity, even after their average lifetime of 10 years in an electric car. They are initially recycled as solar or wind power storage and eventually recycled for their elements.
On Nov 04 07:39 AM a fat panda wrote:

> We are going to alt-energy cars to go-green - to save the environment.
> I haven't the slightest idea about the technology, but I do have
> a question : what are you going to do with the spent batteries? This
> is a question. Seriously for once I am not being sarcastic.

Rare Market Indicator Sighting: T2108 Over 90%

Don't have Worden, but Tradestation's scanner showed:
April 9, 2009 EOD
NYSE 2898 out of 3254 above 40DMA = 89.06%
SP500 457 out of 501 above 40DMA = 91.22%

As to captain Brian above "It is time for some businessmen to replace the politicians. Profit is not a dirty word nor a four letter word. There is a way to solve this."
I would point out that GWBush was our MBA businessmen president and Cheney our CEO vice president. They embraced deregulation and let the boys at Wall St. and board rooms take everything this country got and more.

Would You Pay $1,000 for This Book?

A better summary here and you don't have to break any laws to get it:
www.rbcpa.com/Notes%20...

Buffett's Gamble: $40 Billion Bet on Volatility

".... contracts have demanded that broker Goldman Sachs put up collateral for the rest of the amount due. Since the [b]value of the trade could be infinite[/b], the collateral demands are said to be large, "

How do you figure naked puts to be infinite? Only values of naked calls can be infinite. The underlying of all the world's indices can go to zero if we get hit by a meteor and we all die and the puts will be worth about $40B (who is left to collect it?), but it is more likely the value of the world's indices can go closer to infinity in our lifetime.

The only downside to Buffet in this trade is that he is a little old and won't be around to reap its rewards, but his charitable trust in B&M Gates foundation will do fine.

VIX's Double Jump

Tradestation data $VXO.X to Jan 1986
When has VXO advances >= 13% each of 2 consecutive days?
09/12/1986 16.2957 %
10/19/1987 312.9502 %
08/06/1990 23.9563 %
07/23/1996 13.4696 %
03/11/2004 15.4787 %
07/27/2007 15.2503 %
11/06/2008 19.7388 %

When has the VXO index jumped >=12 pts in two days combined?
10/21/1987 76.28
10/22/1987 37.78
10/28/1987 32.09
10/29/1987 32.85
10/30/1987 19.83
10/13/2008 15.40
10/14/2008 27.54
10/20/2008 17.62
10/21/2008 15.28
10/28/2008 13.35
11/04/2008 13.41

VIX vs VXO vixandmore.blogspot.co...

Worst Two-Day Decline Since the '87 Crash

Bespoke,
"October seemed extreme, one landmark we failed to reach during that period was a two-day decline of 10% or more."

I think you missed a few on the SPX in October ? Using SPX.X from Tradestation data, the following recent dates showed a 10% or more 2-day decline. There are several more with 9.x% declines.

10/7/2008 10.3390 %
10/15/2008 10.5206 %
11/6/2008 11.1473 %


spx.x to 1960
10/19/1987 32.5802 %
10/20/1987 19.3641 %
9/29/2008 9.2957 %
10/7/2008 10.3390 %
10/9/2008 9.4854 %
10/10/2008 9.5327 %
10/15/2008 10.5206 %
10/22/2008 9.8820 %
11/6/2008 11.1473 %

Worst Two-Day Decline Since the '87 Crash

Yawn.... VIX above 50 will do that to the market. If you relax the criteria to 9%, you will get the following with $INDU (see below, going back to 1920s, data not shown for the other 29 instances). So basically you have this kind of historic volatility that makes 2 day declines > 9% common place, almost every other week in the last 5 weeks.

10/7/2008 0.09
10/9/2008 0.10
10/10/2008 0.10
10/15/2008 0.09
11/6/2008 0.11

Is It Time for Apple to Buy Back Some Shares?

"Apple is an ideas company. No ideas, no company."
That's right. An idea here would be for Apple to do what Porche did with Volkswagon. Build up a massive short squeeze in something like Motorola and squeeze the value of MOT to about $200 per share or market cap of about 450B. Wait for the shorts to cover or go belly up and make about 50B and acquire a pretty good phone manufacturer at the same time.

Bernanke's Fall from Grace

Guess who was right?

www.washingtonpost.com...
"The size and nature of this market create a potential for systemic risk to the nation's financial markets that requires vigilance by federal regulatory authorities."
- Brooksley E. Born, chair, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 1996-1999
Arrived at the CFTC determined to get her arms around the risk posed by the burgeoning growth of derivatives, so called because they are financial instruments that derive their value from other investments.

----------------------...

"Regulation of derivatives transactions that are privately negotiated by professionals is unnecessary. Regulation that serves no useful purpose hinders the efficiency of markets to enlarge standards of living."
- Alan Greenspan, chairman, Federal Reserve, 1987-2006
Opposed regulation of derivatives on free market grounds. Thought the CFTC had no legal authority to do so, and any CFTC proposal would threaten the legality of existing contracts.

Bernanke's Fall from Grace

It is the job of the SEC to regulate investment banks with consultation with the Fed. They failed to do so and in fact allowed IBs to take up to 3x more debts and Greenspan was a big part of the deregulation.

www.washingtonpost.com...
"What Went Wrong
The meeting of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets on an April day in 1998 brought together Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt Jr. -- all Wall Street legends, all opponents to varying degrees of tighter regulation of the financial system that had earned them wealth and power."

www.nytimes.com/2008/1...
Agency’s ’04 Rule Let Banks Pile Up New Debt
www.nytimes.com/2008/0...
S.E.C. Concedes Oversight Flaws Fueled Collapse

Lehman's CDS Mess: Who's on the Hook?

Thank you. I know we are talking about free market philosophy, but one could argue about the point that "I don't think the government has the right to cancel private contracts". For example, if the underlying instrument is illegal, such as the trading of human beings in slavery or the trafficking of illegal goods, such as cocaine etc, it is clear that contracts involving such goods are illegal and cancellable by authorities. US laws also allow the use of the RICO acts in a conspiracy and racketeering to defraud.

I would still be interested in knowing what would be the consequences of cancelling the CDS contracts retroactively.

Thanks again, good piece.

Lehman's CDS Mess: Who's on the Hook?

Mr. Bo Peng,

Someone commented on another thread entitled 600 Trillion .....
that the governments involved should just cancel or bust the CDS trades retroactively. What is your thought on that and why or why won't that work.

Governments have done worst in the historical past for the "social good" involving slavery, relocation of native population and land seizure without proper compensation, why not do that now? There are only a relatively few small groups involved in a rather big windfall.

Still an Oil Bull, Lame or Not

-4.7% for June, the latest DOT report
www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/...