The-Honest-Trader's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/258928/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/133182-why-jim-rogers-and-robert-shiller-aren-t-buying-u-s-stocks-yet?source=feed#comment-480000 480000 Wow, don't people inherit stocks any longer?

Many people sell stocks after inheriting them.


On Apr 26 11:37 PM Thomas Barnard wrote:

> Nice piece of work. My own thinking has run along these same lines.
> The problem for investors is that there have only been a few opportunities
> to buy. Since 1974 was the last moment to buy, that left no opportunity
> for the current generation to buy. Moreover, when people get money
> through inheritance and pay and bonuses, often do not coincide with
> these rare buying events. It's been over 30 years since we've had
> one those events, so one may be coming up.
>
> There are other decent moments to buy 1983-84, 1987. But for the
> last 20 years the high PE levels means risk has been higher than
> normal.
>
> Shiller is right. CAPE is still too high. The current feeling of
> returning to normal may only mean we are in the eye of the storm.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:28:23 -0400 Wow, don't people inherit stocks any longer?

Many people sell stocks after inheriting them.


On Apr 26 11:37 PM Thomas Barnard wrote:

> Nice piece of work. My own thinking has run along these same lines.
> The problem for investors is that there have only been a few opportunities
> to buy. Since 1974 was the last moment to buy, that left no opportunity
> for the current generation to buy. Moreover, when people get money
> through inheritance and pay and bonuses, often do not coincide with
> these rare buying events. It's been over 30 years since we've had
> one those events, so one may be coming up.
>
> There are other decent moments to buy 1983-84, 1987. But for the
> last 20 years the high PE levels means risk has been higher than
> normal.
>
> Shiller is right. CAPE is still too high. The current feeling of
> returning to normal may only mean we are in the eye of the storm.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131375-david-tice-s-p-500-may-plunge-to-325?source=feed#comment-467998 467998
Leave your buy orders there @ SPY and prepare "thank you" notes for me.

My charts are rarely wrong and they show the bottom at 530. Sell into this fools rally.]]> Sat, 18 Apr 2009 23:47:18 -0400
Leave your buy orders there @ SPY and prepare "thank you" notes for me.

My charts are rarely wrong and they show the bottom at 530. Sell into this fools rally.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103279-11-stocks-selling-below-cash?source=feed#comment-296164 296164
It has unwinded the position already but it was an unauthorized position that's why the stock got sold off and its credit rating was reduced.

Do your homework before posting and buying...

]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 08:03:11 -0500
It has unwinded the position already but it was an unauthorized position that's why the stock got sold off and its credit rating was reduced.

Do your homework before posting and buying...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97043-what-happened-to-the-oil-markets-on-monday?source=feed#comment-266637 266637 Sat, 27 Sep 2008 02:18:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96135-how-susceptible-is-china-to-the-global-crisis?source=feed#comment-260717 260717
I live in Brazil and long-only fund managers are really pessimistic.

The market fell almost like Russia just after receiving the investment grade rating from S&P. This shows the credibility of these agencies.

Some hedge fund managers here were short the market or specific shares like Vale. Can you disclose which hedge funds were pessimistic?]]> Sun, 21 Sep 2008 13:13:08 -0400
I live in Brazil and long-only fund managers are really pessimistic.

The market fell almost like Russia just after receiving the investment grade rating from S&P. This shows the credibility of these agencies.

Some hedge fund managers here were short the market or specific shares like Vale. Can you disclose which hedge funds were pessimistic?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96500-morgan-stanley-exploding-the-short-seller-myth?source=feed#comment-260699 260699
In the rules of capitalism, it's fair, Darwin's natural selection right? But why not leave the irresponsible companies alone if you don't own the stock?

Ok, you could use the argument that in the long run weaker companies who survived can do more damage to the system.

But in my view, if systemic risk is on the table, allowing short sales can be the shortcut to hell. Stock markets should be something that help the economies, not a casino, where you are just gambling on who's to fail. IT's about investing in companies for christ sake.]]> Sun, 21 Sep 2008 12:54:02 -0400
In the rules of capitalism, it's fair, Darwin's natural selection right? But why not leave the irresponsible companies alone if you don't own the stock?

Ok, you could use the argument that in the long run weaker companies who survived can do more damage to the system.

But in my view, if systemic risk is on the table, allowing short sales can be the shortcut to hell. Stock markets should be something that help the economies, not a casino, where you are just gambling on who's to fail. IT's about investing in companies for christ sake.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96425-if-you-think-the-dow-did-well-today-you-re-wrong?source=feed#comment-260257 260257
The state will own everything and you'll receive a monthly wage to pay for your expenses and limited amounts of food, guns and tapped water.]]> Sat, 20 Sep 2008 18:10:20 -0400
The state will own everything and you'll receive a monthly wage to pay for your expenses and limited amounts of food, guns and tapped water.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95865-not-everyone-is-in-trouble?source=feed#comment-257643 257643
How about sovereign funds buying one of the US banks? Too far-fetched? I MEAN, THE US HAS NO FRIENDS? Everyone wants to see it go down, is that it?

How about Goldman merging with Morgan Stanley?

I believe things get better only May 2009, which is overly optimistic considering most comments.]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 00:51:48 -0400
How about sovereign funds buying one of the US banks? Too far-fetched? I MEAN, THE US HAS NO FRIENDS? Everyone wants to see it go down, is that it?

How about Goldman merging with Morgan Stanley?

I believe things get better only May 2009, which is overly optimistic considering most comments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95752-six-thoughts-on-current-market-weakness?source=feed#comment-256651 256651
I'd go long the Financial Spider (XLF) ASAP if I invested in US equities.

Lehmann went down and it barely approached the July lows. How worse can it get after AIG?

Risk is dispersed on the ETF... With 3 banks (LEH, MER and AIG) having their situation "solved" I'd take that risk.]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 02:17:37 -0400
I'd go long the Financial Spider (XLF) ASAP if I invested in US equities.

Lehmann went down and it barely approached the July lows. How worse can it get after AIG?

Risk is dispersed on the ETF... With 3 banks (LEH, MER and AIG) having their situation "solved" I'd take that risk.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95581-companies-we-care-about-starbucks-apple-google-amazon?source=feed#comment-256647 256647
Upscale people set the trend, organic food will eventually be for everyone.]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 02:13:08 -0400
Upscale people set the trend, organic food will eventually be for everyone.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95480-why-it-s-time-to-buy-google-apple?source=feed#comment-256643 256643
I'm brazilian and considered investing in the Google IPO. Shares were 90, I didn't get the papers done on time and couldn't grab'em... They skyrocketed since then, and today at 400 I don't think it's a one in a lifetime opportunity..Financial... might be though.]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 02:02:02 -0400
I'm brazilian and considered investing in the Google IPO. Shares were 90, I didn't get the papers done on time and couldn't grab'em... They skyrocketed since then, and today at 400 I don't think it's a one in a lifetime opportunity..Financial... might be though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95808-why-bail-out-aig-s-bondholders?source=feed#comment-256635 256635 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 01:47:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95808-why-bail-out-aig-s-bondholders?source=feed#comment-256565 256565
Bondholders should have lost their money.

]]> Tue, 16 Sep 2008 23:58:02 -0400
Bondholders should have lost their money.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95807-the-nationalization-of-aig?source=feed#comment-256563 256563
are you sadists?

Do you have any idea what would happen if AIG failed? The FED did the right thing, it's even foolish to discuss the merit of the deal.]]> Tue, 16 Sep 2008 23:55:48 -0400
are you sadists?

Do you have any idea what would happen if AIG failed? The FED did the right thing, it's even foolish to discuss the merit of the deal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95377-is-sirius-xm-stock-being-manipulated?source=feed#comment-254535 254535
How about deep sea oil drillers or solar energy companies? Even JDS Uniphase, dirty cheap.. ]]> Mon, 15 Sep 2008 00:16:05 -0400
How about deep sea oil drillers or solar energy companies? Even JDS Uniphase, dirty cheap.. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95329-ebay-is-a-losing-bid-barron-s?source=feed#comment-254529 254529
Everyone sees charts and sometimes manipulate them so people like you get scared. So what it is under its 52w low? It can easily come out of the woods. I expect a GAP down tomorrow, will buy at the open.
]]> Mon, 15 Sep 2008 00:07:52 -0400
Everyone sees charts and sometimes manipulate them so people like you get scared. So what it is under its 52w low? It can easily come out of the woods. I expect a GAP down tomorrow, will buy at the open.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95384-market-rewind-deleveraging-continues?source=feed#comment-254490 254490
rule of da day.]]> Sun, 14 Sep 2008 23:09:32 -0400
rule of da day.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84824-seven-tech-stocks-for-long-term-hold?source=feed#comment-253708 253708
Sorry for your losses, but I'm buying in on some of your stocks very soon.]]> Sat, 13 Sep 2008 22:57:51 -0400
Sorry for your losses, but I'm buying in on some of your stocks very soon.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-252273 252273
Chinese government is buying it...]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:17:36 -0400
Chinese government is buying it...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94957-petrobras-brazilian-oil-takes-one-step-closer-to-nationalization?source=feed#comment-252161 252161
It's not like the government will take Tupi and Iara from Petrobras shareholders. I'm brazilian and can attest that they wouldn't dare.

Henrique Meirelles, president of Brazil's Central Bank knows international markets, he was the former CEO of BankBoston. He will tell the president not to do it... We'd have the oil but lose all other foreign investment most likely... The country would be sabotaged.]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 20:31:37 -0400
It's not like the government will take Tupi and Iara from Petrobras shareholders. I'm brazilian and can attest that they wouldn't dare.

Henrique Meirelles, president of Brazil's Central Bank knows international markets, he was the former CEO of BankBoston. He will tell the president not to do it... We'd have the oil but lose all other foreign investment most likely... The country would be sabotaged.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95012-petrobras-looks-more-compelling-than-ever?source=feed#comment-252159 252159
Stock was 10% up today (in reais, not dollars)]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 20:27:42 -0400
Stock was 10% up today (in reais, not dollars)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-251221 251221
just read your sell recommendation on PBR. Absolutely successful, does it still carry a premium over other oil companies?

I was short the whole brazilian market at the top. I really can relate to your call. It was a really bullish time, I really laughed at the comments people made about the article... That's how I'm laughing of people who did not see it coming.

I confess though that they kinda got me too... I exited the short too soon. I wish I had read your post back then so it would give me ALOT more confidence... I bet the bullish comments would just feed my negative feelings.

Now that I'm realizing that brazilian stocks were so appetizing to sell at the top, I'm considering the "safety" of the US Dollar or maybe Gold, which is always safety in times of uncertainty. My fear is that the short position is so big that it will only push stocks lower. Local investors cannot face the "gringos" (foreign investors). There are still long foreign investors though, but they never faced so fearceful competition on the sell-side like this time. The bubble might deflate to levels we did not imagine before.
]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 03:28:59 -0400
just read your sell recommendation on PBR. Absolutely successful, does it still carry a premium over other oil companies?

I was short the whole brazilian market at the top. I really can relate to your call. It was a really bullish time, I really laughed at the comments people made about the article... That's how I'm laughing of people who did not see it coming.

I confess though that they kinda got me too... I exited the short too soon. I wish I had read your post back then so it would give me ALOT more confidence... I bet the bullish comments would just feed my negative feelings.

Now that I'm realizing that brazilian stocks were so appetizing to sell at the top, I'm considering the "safety" of the US Dollar or maybe Gold, which is always safety in times of uncertainty. My fear is that the short position is so big that it will only push stocks lower. Local investors cannot face the "gringos" (foreign investors). There are still long foreign investors though, but they never faced so fearceful competition on the sell-side like this time. The bubble might deflate to levels we did not imagine before.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-251199 251199
glad you appreciated the comments.

The players in Brazil really seem to know everything. Probably "investment grade" meant hedge funds could invest in Brazil, and instead of buying they sold stocks short using their insider information about oil. It's a less regulated market than the USA and no one really goes to jail here if they have the right amount of money. It also was the last BRIC to receive the upgrade. Maybe the plan since the beggining was to end the commodities cycle after Brazil received the upgrade? If you check the stock market charts, you'll realize that the index went up more than 15% over the previous top in just a few days, after returns of 50% over the last 5 years. Just month after the rating the index was melting, and short interest had never been so high like it was at the top.

One thing you all must know about the PBR story is that the government is morally dubious here, seriously. The president told all governors in a meeting that Petrobras would go up because it had find alot of oil (it's not me saying this, it was the #1 selling paper in the country). The stock went up like 40% after the Tupi discovery and fortunes were made in off the money options, bought by people with inside information. Why? Out of the money options volume had never been so high like that.

Conspiracy theories aside, I still believe that Brazil probably has more oil fields on the country, not in the sea. This country is very blessed with natural resources. It's just a matter of time until Petrobras finds more. I buy Petrobras because it's a company that is run by idiots and can be run by idiots, because this country has alot of reserves. I sell Warren Buffet's philosophy but I do buy in this phrase.

Now I ask you, if oil is so hard to drill at the sea, why the hell Soros bought so much stock 50% up from it's current price? Ok, so he sold his Vale shares... Still, biggest stock holding in his fund... ]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 01:56:29 -0400
glad you appreciated the comments.

The players in Brazil really seem to know everything. Probably "investment grade" meant hedge funds could invest in Brazil, and instead of buying they sold stocks short using their insider information about oil. It's a less regulated market than the USA and no one really goes to jail here if they have the right amount of money. It also was the last BRIC to receive the upgrade. Maybe the plan since the beggining was to end the commodities cycle after Brazil received the upgrade? If you check the stock market charts, you'll realize that the index went up more than 15% over the previous top in just a few days, after returns of 50% over the last 5 years. Just month after the rating the index was melting, and short interest had never been so high like it was at the top.

One thing you all must know about the PBR story is that the government is morally dubious here, seriously. The president told all governors in a meeting that Petrobras would go up because it had find alot of oil (it's not me saying this, it was the #1 selling paper in the country). The stock went up like 40% after the Tupi discovery and fortunes were made in off the money options, bought by people with inside information. Why? Out of the money options volume had never been so high like that.

Conspiracy theories aside, I still believe that Brazil probably has more oil fields on the country, not in the sea. This country is very blessed with natural resources. It's just a matter of time until Petrobras finds more. I buy Petrobras because it's a company that is run by idiots and can be run by idiots, because this country has alot of reserves. I sell Warren Buffet's philosophy but I do buy in this phrase.

Now I ask you, if oil is so hard to drill at the sea, why the hell Soros bought so much stock 50% up from it's current price? Ok, so he sold his Vale shares... Still, biggest stock holding in his fund... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-250994 250994
I think Baptista will be the richest man in the world in not much time... To say the least. Oh, but he may not be a grown up lol.]]> Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:49:26 -0400
I think Baptista will be the richest man in the world in not much time... To say the least. Oh, but he may not be a grown up lol.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-250991 250991
the dutch boy with the "grown up" comment might not believe it, but brazilian investors are amongst the most astute in the world.

They anticipated the whole investment grade rating story and bought Brazilian stocks like crazy during the whole year. Check the charts, Brazil was the best performing market during most of the year.

I guess that when the investment grade rating was given, the market was really expensive and the new money that should have gone to Brazil didn't go. No foreign investor flow meant a freefall for stocks. But it really had all parts of a conspiracy theory in it.. As always the media pumped stocks real hard... Lots of people who never invested put their money and lost. People say here the banks bought the investment grade rating to short the market and they really seem to have done this.

I would even go further and say that Brazil is a broad market leader. If you trade US stock indexes, I'd suggest you take a look at Brazil everyday to see how it's going. Why? It's kinda hard to explain, but basically, whatever move Dow or S&P500 will do in the future, Brazilian stocks are doing now. They go up before the US goes up, they go down before too...Some days the brazilian exchange is the only one falling and I'm like WTF? Some hours later I get the answer when stocks all over the world are bleeding... Those brazilian traders know their business, we usually say.

Check monday intraday action in the Bovespa after the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announcement. We were down more than 2% that day, after starting 3% up. And it went down before all other stock exchanges. Now check the Dow and S&P on tuesday...

I wish I could trade US indexes and profit from the brains of these rats.
]]> Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:45:57 -0400
the dutch boy with the "grown up" comment might not believe it, but brazilian investors are amongst the most astute in the world.

They anticipated the whole investment grade rating story and bought Brazilian stocks like crazy during the whole year. Check the charts, Brazil was the best performing market during most of the year.

I guess that when the investment grade rating was given, the market was really expensive and the new money that should have gone to Brazil didn't go. No foreign investor flow meant a freefall for stocks. But it really had all parts of a conspiracy theory in it.. As always the media pumped stocks real hard... Lots of people who never invested put their money and lost. People say here the banks bought the investment grade rating to short the market and they really seem to have done this.

I would even go further and say that Brazil is a broad market leader. If you trade US stock indexes, I'd suggest you take a look at Brazil everyday to see how it's going. Why? It's kinda hard to explain, but basically, whatever move Dow or S&P500 will do in the future, Brazilian stocks are doing now. They go up before the US goes up, they go down before too...Some days the brazilian exchange is the only one falling and I'm like WTF? Some hours later I get the answer when stocks all over the world are bleeding... Those brazilian traders know their business, we usually say.

Check monday intraday action in the Bovespa after the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announcement. We were down more than 2% that day, after starting 3% up. And it went down before all other stock exchanges. Now check the Dow and S&P on tuesday...

I wish I could trade US indexes and profit from the brains of these rats.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-250977 250977
Petrobras found oil in the Iara oil field today. 4 millions barrels it seems.

In the after market there are no more sellers. How much the stock might go up tomorrow?

]]> Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:35:01 -0400
Petrobras found oil in the Iara oil field today. 4 millions barrels it seems.

In the after market there are no more sellers. How much the stock might go up tomorrow?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94309-petrobras-great-for-brazil-not-so-great-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-249979 249979
I'm brazilian and have not heard about this. BTW, PBR peaked in may because Brazil received the investment grade rating from S&P and Fitch in that month and all stocks went up. Meanwhile oreign investors shorted the market while the media hyped it up.

I'm long the stock, started buying 10% up from current prices, I always had this stock but sold near the top because it clearly was a bubble.

I agree with the guy who criticized Brazil, about Exxon's credibility adding to the potential ground discoveries. Certainly a market mover, I would go long PBR options if I knew the discoveries in BM-S-22 are a winner.]]> Wed, 10 Sep 2008 01:10:21 -0400
I'm brazilian and have not heard about this. BTW, PBR peaked in may because Brazil received the investment grade rating from S&P and Fitch in that month and all stocks went up. Meanwhile oreign investors shorted the market while the media hyped it up.

I'm long the stock, started buying 10% up from current prices, I always had this stock but sold near the top because it clearly was a bubble.

I agree with the guy who criticized Brazil, about Exxon's credibility adding to the potential ground discoveries. Certainly a market mover, I would go long PBR options if I knew the discoveries in BM-S-22 are a winner.]]>