Roger Knights

Dubai: The Counter Trade

"That gets to an ‘outside the Gulf’ loss of only $15B. A few European Banks will get hit. ... The numbers do not look that big to me."

It's another straw on the camel's back--and it's overloaded already.

Is the Dubai Crisis the Answer to USD Bulls’ Prayers?

If Dubai stabilizes, some other debt-laden domino will fall. There are lots of them and collectively they're too big to bail.

A phrase I've come up with to justify my long-term bearish stance is this: It's the debt, dummy.

Global Warming Models: 'Out of Order'?

Here's a link to the site that was one of those that broke the climategate story. Lots of interesting threads on the topic:

wattsupwiththat.com/

Laugh at My "Picks" Now / Later / Both / Neither

Oops--there was a fourth notable gainer among my shorts, BRK.B, which went from 3447 to 3370.

Laugh at My "Picks" Now / Later / Both / Neither

Results after 2nd week (ended 11/237):
Market was down a small bit. More gainers than losers among my picks.
Only notable loser was Rambus (just normal jitter, IMO).
Notable gainers were my shorts on WFC, IYR, and RWX (again).

GRN: New Carbon Emissions ETN Offers Green Energy Alternative

This could be an interesting short candidate, if the emerging "climategate" scandal gets traction. Here's a link to one of the two first threads (on the popular WUWT site) to break the story. Subsequent threads--over a dozen so far--can be accessed by going to the site's home page (click "home").

wattsupwiththat.com/20.../

IMF's Managing Director Gives Credibility to a Stronger Gold Price

"Yes the man famous for winning millions on betting on the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage catastrophe ..."

Make that "billions."

$59 Billion Dubai Debt Default Could Have Much Wider Implications

PS: Now we know why gold's been soaring, and Treasury notes have been less than zero.

$59 Billion Dubai Debt Default Could Have Much Wider Implications

The first domino?

Dow futures down 180.

What if Steve Jobs Hadn’t Returned to Apple in 1997?

To clarify, insert the words in brackets:

"And their stance on [Google Voice for] the iPhone is irritating and, well, sorta evil."

Is Gold Bullion Overdue for a Pullback?

"no point buying now the upside is limited and the downside is scary."

The upside is 1300 short-term, (next quarter), and the downside is limited, because Asian central banks will be buying on dips from here to eternity.

Gold Bears Stop Sector from Overheating

Regarding Nadler, there was a post on the Kitco forum that explained that he may view buying gold as being bearish on America and the West. The post argued that he, being a refugee from Romania (before the fall of Communism), might have a strong emotional investment in the West a a land of hope and growth.

My "take" is that he, like many other gold lugs, can't get past seeing gold as a commodity, which is how it functions in normal times.

Can 2004 Teach Us Anything About 2010?

"the current deleveraging process is unlike any recession the modern economic world has ever seen and that means the outcomes are unpredictable based on past data. The challenges ahead of us are numerous and the differences between the business-based recession of 2003 and the consumer based recession of 2009 are staggering."

Correct--It's the debt, stupid.

Today's Economic Data: Feeding the Market's Bipolarity

Oops--I meant to say, "I believe that NBER uses human judgment to determine when recessions end."

Today's Economic Data: Feeding the Market's Bipolarity

"GDP was in-line, but does mark the official end to the recession as the economy moves into growth territory for the quarter."

I believe that NBER doesn't use human judgment to determine when recessions end. Its chairman stated a couple of months ago that he wanted to wait a year before making his call.