Roger Knights's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/259051/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174286-obama-s-fears-of-a-double-dip-recession-are-nonsense?source=feed#comment-771464 771464
That's what Julian Robertson is worried about. Good thinking--alertness to potential black swans.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 04:50:39 -0500
That's what Julian Robertson is worried about. Good thinking--alertness to potential black swans.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174296-a-turn-in-the-risk-trade?source=feed#comment-771459 771459
Denninger posted an article along these lines yesterday. This could be The Top, IOW.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 04:34:03 -0500
Denninger posted an article along these lines yesterday. This could be The Top, IOW.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174321-which-sector-will-be-the-next-decade-s-home-run?source=feed#comment-771447 771447
Thanks for saying that. The correct phrase is "raising the question"
==========

I think we're in a new normal and that there won't be any home runs. It's best to be defensive and, as Bill Gross suggests, invest in something like utilities. Or, as Jim Rogers suggests, in agricultural commodities. I think you'd be mad not to have at least 10% in gold--preferably in gold miners (as Julian Robertson suggests). The only home run sector I can imagine would be in some far-out tech breakthrough that hasn't yet been widely appreciated, like cold fusion.

I think the real home runs will be hit on the short side, like Paulson's short on the housing sector.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 02:55:16 -0500
Thanks for saying that. The correct phrase is "raising the question"
==========

I think we're in a new normal and that there won't be any home runs. It's best to be defensive and, as Bill Gross suggests, invest in something like utilities. Or, as Jim Rogers suggests, in agricultural commodities. I think you'd be mad not to have at least 10% in gold--preferably in gold miners (as Julian Robertson suggests). The only home run sector I can imagine would be in some far-out tech breakthrough that hasn't yet been widely appreciated, like cold fusion.

I think the real home runs will be hit on the short side, like Paulson's short on the housing sector.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173812-the-weak-dollar-crowd-is-too-confident?source=feed#comment-771433 771433 Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:44:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/259051-roger-knights/35694-laugh-at-my-picks-now-later-both-neither?source=feed#comment-770929 770929 -BRK.B Short Berkshire Hathaway B @ 3447, stop loss @ 3500, amount 50 chips.

My chip pile is now down to 46.58]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:48:45 -0500 -BRK.B Short Berkshire Hathaway B @ 3447, stop loss @ 3500, amount 50 chips.

My chip pile is now down to 46.58]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174409-bubble-risk-rises-with-low-rates?source=feed#comment-770907 770907
Gold's still cheap on a five-year perspective.

Or a five-month perspective.]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:17:17 -0500
Gold's still cheap on a five-year perspective.

Or a five-month perspective.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174441-what-the-greatest-investor-in-the-world-is-doing-right-now?source=feed#comment-770904 770904 Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:12:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174459-can-apple-stop-the-android?source=feed#comment-770813 770813
But it's backed by SJ's technical insight that object-orientation is technologically crucial. That's what NEXT was all about, and its incorporation in OS X (and its iPhone derivative) is what really gives the iPhone a lasting edge. What Apple's got is not just flash and filigree.

I agree with the comments above that Android will do OK. I think it will prevent the iPhone from sweeping the board, and somewhat crimp its success. But it's not really a threat to Apple the way Microsoft was to the Mac in the 80s & 90s.

One thing to remember is that iPod owners can't move their music over to the Android (without paying a large one-time fee to convert their libraries to a portable, hi-fi format). Another thing is that the iTablet might come with a dock for the iPhone. If it does, that'll be a strong positive for both products.]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:34:28 -0500
But it's backed by SJ's technical insight that object-orientation is technologically crucial. That's what NEXT was all about, and its incorporation in OS X (and its iPhone derivative) is what really gives the iPhone a lasting edge. What Apple's got is not just flash and filigree.

I agree with the comments above that Android will do OK. I think it will prevent the iPhone from sweeping the board, and somewhat crimp its success. But it's not really a threat to Apple the way Microsoft was to the Mac in the 80s & 90s.

One thing to remember is that iPod owners can't move their music over to the Android (without paying a large one-time fee to convert their libraries to a portable, hi-fi format). Another thing is that the iTablet might come with a dock for the iPhone. If it does, that'll be a strong positive for both products.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174151-copper-gold-and-coal-poised-to-break-out?source=feed#comment-770696 770696
I've got 16 positions, 14 of them short, so I did OK my first week, except for the copper ETF JJC, on which I got stopped out when it went ballistic. ]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:21:07 -0500
I've got 16 positions, 14 of them short, so I did OK my first week, except for the copper ETF JJC, on which I got stopped out when it went ballistic. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174151-copper-gold-and-coal-poised-to-break-out?source=feed#comment-770692 770692
The reason that the SA editors used "Copper, Gold and Coal" in their title was (I'm pretty sure) to enable this article to be found when a site visitor searches for one of those terms. The site's search feature searches the titles only.

(If a searcher wanted to locate articles referring to a particular coal stock, he'd enter their symbols, and this article would turn up because the article's subheading indexes them.)]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:14:01 -0500
The reason that the SA editors used "Copper, Gold and Coal" in their title was (I'm pretty sure) to enable this article to be found when a site visitor searches for one of those terms. The site's search feature searches the titles only.

(If a searcher wanted to locate articles referring to a particular coal stock, he'd enter their symbols, and this article would turn up because the article's subheading indexes them.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174468-gold-likely-won-t-go-back-below-1000?source=feed#comment-770681 770681
Very good--gold is on a tear--at last. It's overdue. Central banks, the big battleships in this arena, have finally turned around and are looking to buy on dips or hold on. (Don't fight them--get on their side!) So are big investors looking for a good diversifier. And (I think) there are still lots of shorts looking to cover.

And look at the powerful bullish chart consolidation formations behind it. Their target is close to $1300 in the intermediate term.

Even though gold is an "obvious" buy at this point, that doesn't mean it's a bad one. Clever people can outsmart themselves trying to see beyond what's apparent, sometimes. Just because gold spent 18 months banging around below 1000, that doesn't mean that it shouldn't get too far above that level. Thinking that way is falling prey to anchoring bias and recency bias.

Up, up, and away!]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:02:15 -0500
Very good--gold is on a tear--at last. It's overdue. Central banks, the big battleships in this arena, have finally turned around and are looking to buy on dips or hold on. (Don't fight them--get on their side!) So are big investors looking for a good diversifier. And (I think) there are still lots of shorts looking to cover.

And look at the powerful bullish chart consolidation formations behind it. Their target is close to $1300 in the intermediate term.

Even though gold is an "obvious" buy at this point, that doesn't mean it's a bad one. Clever people can outsmart themselves trying to see beyond what's apparent, sometimes. Just because gold spent 18 months banging around below 1000, that doesn't mean that it shouldn't get too far above that level. Thinking that way is falling prey to anchoring bias and recency bias.

Up, up, and away!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174472-is-gold-in-a-bubble?source=feed#comment-770659 770659 Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:49:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174472-is-gold-in-a-bubble?source=feed#comment-770653 770653
Inflation would also pump up the price of gold, so it's a wash, and the ratio is meaningful.

"I’m also puzzled why Rosenberg is so bullish on gold since he has been one of the prescient strategists who has beaten the deflation drum the loudest."

He's realized--as has Jim Rogers, who's changed his traditional anti-gold position in the past year or so--that gold isn't primarily a commodity, but a super-national currency. Hence its value should rise in a deflation, like cash.]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:45:56 -0500
Inflation would also pump up the price of gold, so it's a wash, and the ratio is meaningful.

"I’m also puzzled why Rosenberg is so bullish on gold since he has been one of the prescient strategists who has beaten the deflation drum the loudest."

He's realized--as has Jim Rogers, who's changed his traditional anti-gold position in the past year or so--that gold isn't primarily a commodity, but a super-national currency. Hence its value should rise in a deflation, like cash.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174443-rip-retail-stores-closed-in-2009?source=feed#comment-770644 770644 PBY) closed or sold off several outlets, but it's not listed.]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:36:55 -0500 PBY) closed or sold off several outlets, but it's not listed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174489-junior-gold-mining-etf-gdxj-outperforming-its-bigger-sibling?source=feed#comment-770618 770618
Another side-effect will (I think) be to exert a "pull" on other juniors. I.e., arbs (and computerized trading programs) will trade in a manner to "correct" any notable divergences between GDXJ and large, non-GDXJ juniors. That will be good for all the juniors, making their pricing moves less idiosyncratic, and thus more attractive to institutions.

Incidentally, I'm hoping there will eventually be an ETF named GDJJ, for the junior-juniors. (According to one gold-oriented newsletter, there are four levels of gold miners--so there shouldn't be just two levels of ETFs for them.)]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:15:27 -0500
Another side-effect will (I think) be to exert a "pull" on other juniors. I.e., arbs (and computerized trading programs) will trade in a manner to "correct" any notable divergences between GDXJ and large, non-GDXJ juniors. That will be good for all the juniors, making their pricing moves less idiosyncratic, and thus more attractive to institutions.

Incidentally, I'm hoping there will eventually be an ETF named GDJJ, for the junior-juniors. (According to one gold-oriented newsletter, there are four levels of gold miners--so there shouldn't be just two levels of ETFs for them.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/259051-roger-knights/35694-laugh-at-my-picks-now-later-both-neither?source=feed#comment-770608 770608 Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:05:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/259051-roger-knights/35694-laugh-at-my-picks-now-later-both-neither?source=feed#comment-770604 770604 Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:00:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/259051-roger-knights/35694-laugh-at-my-picks-now-later-both-neither?source=feed#comment-770237 770237 Add 71.58 to “chips” from short-covering of JJC
(stopped out at 43.00 for a loss of 4.56%)
-RWX Triple my short position 35.50 09-11-20 37.00 50
Chips now: 75 + 71.58 - 50 = 96.58

Because the market was down a bit and I was mostly short, most of my picks above gained a bit. My notable gainers this week were Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) & my short on Salesforce.com (CRM). My notable loss was on JJC (stopped out, as noted). ]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 03:55:29 -0500 Add 71.58 to “chips” from short-covering of JJC
(stopped out at 43.00 for a loss of 4.56%)
-RWX Triple my short position 35.50 09-11-20 37.00 50
Chips now: 75 + 71.58 - 50 = 96.58

Because the market was down a bit and I was mostly short, most of my picks above gained a bit. My notable gainers this week were Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) & my short on Salesforce.com (CRM). My notable loss was on JJC (stopped out, as noted). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174527-managing-investment-portfolios-six-traps-investors-should-avoid?source=feed#comment-770219 770219 Sat, 21 Nov 2009 03:06:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174536-is-the-fed-blowing-bubbles-jpm-on-asset-reflation-myths?source=feed#comment-770216 770216
How about the short side? Or a special situation stock like Rambus (RMBS) with enormous potential? Here's a link to the Investor's Village site on the stock: www1.investorvillage.c...=]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 02:50:24 -0500
How about the short side? Or a special situation stock like Rambus (RMBS) with enormous potential? Here's a link to the Investor's Village site on the stock: www1.investorvillage.c...=]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174506-gross-not-buying-corporates-high-yield-or-equities?source=feed#comment-768914 768914
But, as Gross wrote, there's the risk of default, and when that happens, bond prices will fall. Gross didn't mention municipal defaults,but they're in the pipeline.]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:19:25 -0500
But, as Gross wrote, there's the risk of default, and when that happens, bond prices will fall. Gross didn't mention municipal defaults,but they're in the pipeline.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174503-are-gold-and-silver-set-for-a-parabolic-move-similar-to-the-1970s?source=feed#comment-768847 768847
A hundred points lower, I commented that gold's performance suggested a "slow-motion short squeeze." How big is the remaining short interest? Are the shorts really scared and looking to get out, or are they figuring that this runup is just a spike that they can wait out?]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:59:35 -0500
A hundred points lower, I commented that gold's performance suggested a "slow-motion short squeeze." How big is the remaining short interest? Are the shorts really scared and looking to get out, or are they figuring that this runup is just a spike that they can wait out?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174510-on-u-s-housing-and-debased-lending-standards?source=feed#comment-768823 768823
"In the face of a resumption of the housing downturn, which happens to be one of the only standouts of failed policies do you think:

"-The government will allow DEFLATION on home prices to resume?
"-Any presidential administration (and by extension congress) will allow the one centerpiece of success (albeit at the low end only) to go away?

"It will not happen."

You're getting as cynical as Marc Faber--and as perceptive. This is contrarianism at its best.]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:51:05 -0500
"In the face of a resumption of the housing downturn, which happens to be one of the only standouts of failed policies do you think:

"-The government will allow DEFLATION on home prices to resume?
"-Any presidential administration (and by extension congress) will allow the one centerpiece of success (albeit at the low end only) to go away?

"It will not happen."

You're getting as cynical as Marc Faber--and as perceptive. This is contrarianism at its best.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174512-gold-supply-and-demand-continues-to-evolve?source=feed#comment-768789 768789
"Today, only a couple of years later, we are shown the intrinsic value of gold as an alternative to fiat currencies. And it's not the value to the common man that is driving the demand, it's the value to a wealthier tier of people, people who need to safe guard investments."

That wealthier tier includes central banks. They will always want it in their vaults as a store-of-value for its compactness and chemical stability, and because of the confidence it inspires in their currency. This "usefulness-to-the-wea... is what is missed by commodity-oriented gold bears.]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:40:35 -0500
"Today, only a couple of years later, we are shown the intrinsic value of gold as an alternative to fiat currencies. And it's not the value to the common man that is driving the demand, it's the value to a wealthier tier of people, people who need to safe guard investments."

That wealthier tier includes central banks. They will always want it in their vaults as a store-of-value for its compactness and chemical stability, and because of the confidence it inspires in their currency. This "usefulness-to-the-wea... is what is missed by commodity-oriented gold bears.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174151-copper-gold-and-coal-poised-to-break-out?source=feed#comment-767893 767893 "I would never take such a narrow view, when there is so much more information available, which must be factored into investment decisions. The Author calls himself 'Trader Mark'"
&
"The Author is handing out investment advice in his article. ... What he presents in his article is not nearly enough reason to be investing new money in those stocks today."

The author was handing out short-term trading ideas for readers' consideration. Here's what he said. I've capitalized the key portion, which you managed to ignore:

"So what one hopes when you buy this sort of breakout i.e. Potash yesterday, or potentially a Freeport or Southern Peru Copper if either jump over resistance soon... is that IN A WEEK OR SO those charts will look like the 3 charts above."

IOW, he was pointing out what are known as "technical set-ups"--in this case, three stocks poised to make a bullish breakout. He wasn't purporting to offer "investment" advice. There are lots of readers here who aren't interested in the long-term--what they want are stock-tips like these. SeekingAlpha is not just a site for investors; it's also a site for traders (aka speculators) as well. Many articles here are similarly focused on charting and short-term trades. If that's not your cup of tea, who cares?]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:01:15 -0500 "I would never take such a narrow view, when there is so much more information available, which must be factored into investment decisions. The Author calls himself 'Trader Mark'"
&
"The Author is handing out investment advice in his article. ... What he presents in his article is not nearly enough reason to be investing new money in those stocks today."

The author was handing out short-term trading ideas for readers' consideration. Here's what he said. I've capitalized the key portion, which you managed to ignore:

"So what one hopes when you buy this sort of breakout i.e. Potash yesterday, or potentially a Freeport or Southern Peru Copper if either jump over resistance soon... is that IN A WEEK OR SO those charts will look like the 3 charts above."

IOW, he was pointing out what are known as "technical set-ups"--in this case, three stocks poised to make a bullish breakout. He wasn't purporting to offer "investment" advice. There are lots of readers here who aren't interested in the long-term--what they want are stock-tips like these. SeekingAlpha is not just a site for investors; it's also a site for traders (aka speculators) as well. Many articles here are similarly focused on charting and short-term trades. If that's not your cup of tea, who cares?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174237-apple-s-tablet-consumers-will-buy-but-what-about-businesses?source=feed#comment-766887 766887
One important market it may conquer is education. A good e-book reader function would be attractive. School systems could buy a ton of them, if there were a good quantity discount.

Periodical publishers might encourage purchases, if their content were available by subscription on the device. If this ecosystem could get traction, it could drive a lot of sales.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 06:43:31 -0500
One important market it may conquer is education. A good e-book reader function would be attractive. School systems could buy a ton of them, if there were a good quantity discount.

Periodical publishers might encourage purchases, if their content were available by subscription on the device. If this ecosystem could get traction, it could drive a lot of sales.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174188-still-the-worst-deflation-in-u-s-history?source=feed#comment-766873 766873
How about "Benny's bennies"?]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 06:33:04 -0500
How about "Benny's bennies"?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174208-this-muddy-economic-picture?source=feed#comment-766818 766818 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 06:16:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174126-housing-starts-down-10-6-month-on-month?source=feed#comment-766152 766152
Flat-lining?]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:50:06 -0500
Flat-lining?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174135-paulson-plans-gold-only-hedge-fund?source=feed#comment-766142 766142 Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:44:36 -0500