Roger Knights

Expect Another Misguided Stimulus Plan

"the rally is tired. It's going to need a continuous flow of great news to keep moving."

If it stalls, it falls.

Report from Europe: Golden Bulls Rule

"Recall that after peaking at around $850 on 18th January 1980, gold quickly slumped to $650 by the end of January and below $500 again by April."

This time there's backup--China will (?) be buying on dips.

Q2 Earnings Effect: Make or Break?

Look at the beautifully smooth curve in the chart as the trend rounds over. It looks to me as though the market will move sideways or a bit upward for a week in order to hit that curve, then roll over.

Earnings Season Derby: And They're Off!

I think guidance will be more important than earnings--and that it will be cautious.

Q1 Market Review, Part II: Dow Industrial Components

"Call me an optimist, ..."

How about "a bottom-up" or "micro-view" analyst? (The crash last year came from a failure to adequately weigh-in the top-down, or macro, view of the economy and the financial system as a whole. I think that the recent rally suffers from the same myopia. Individual stocks look cheap--but not in the context of where we're headed.)

Awaiting Apple Earnings and Guidance

The problem I have with the idea that Apple has better uses for its money than a buyback is that it has been squirreling away its cash for years and NOT spending it. Not only have acquisitions been low, but hiring has been low too. Unlike overstaffed MSFT, Apple is understaffed (and therefore overstretched, as recent public glitches have indicated). This makes me suspect that an emergency buyback program may have been in the back of their minds for years.

Further, a buyback program to protect large investors like pension funds from embarrassment when they report their quarterly results is a different thing from a buyback that is merely a form of roundabout dividend. It's justified when the stock has been unfairly beaten down. Apple could take the position that its buyback is just a temporary measure, and that it will sell back the stock on the market in a year or two, when it reaches a reasonable level. And apple isn't the ultimate arbiter here: activated major-block stockholders like pension funds could start to agitate for it.

Prediction: Apple will announce a buyback program of $5 billion or more before year-end.

Awaiting Apple Earnings and Guidance

Zach said: "I think that there's reasonable support at 86 ..."
Today's low, just after opening, was 85.68, so maybe we've tested the low and gotten strong resistance, given that it's now (11:21 ET) up over 93.50.

I'm really curious to know what the date is for Apple's earning's announcement--does anyone know?

Awaiting Apple Earnings and Guidance

At 10:35 ET Nasdaq is down 1%, but Apple is up 3%. It's showing relative strength. I think all the air is out of the stock.

sgmsg: I wish Apple DID use its cash hoard to buy up other companies. I've seen analysts' comments urging them to do so. For a little spare change they could buy up a few dozen products from utility-program vendors that are needed to flesh out the usability of the Mac OS X. Those features should be part of the OS, to give users a more pleasant experience.

Awaiting Apple Earnings and Guidance

Sorry about the double post. When exactly is Oppenheimer/Apple going to release its earnings report? Is it Oct. 14 or what?

Awaiting Apple Earnings and Guidance

Unless Apple's board announces a stock buyback plan. They have the cash to do it--and stockholders may clamor for it. This is a positive black-swan possibility.

Awaiting Apple Earnings and Guidance

Unless Apple's board announces a stock buyback plan. They have the cash to do it--and stockholders may clamor for it. This is a positive black-swan possibility.