Roger Knights

Can Apple Stop the Android?

"While PC makers were technology companies run by engineers, Apple was a consumer product company run by design and marketing."

But it's backed by SJ's technical insight that object-orientation is technologically crucial. That's what NEXT was all about, and its incorporation in OS X (and its iPhone derivative) is what really gives the iPhone a lasting edge. What Apple's got is not just flash and filigree.

I agree with the comments above that Android will do OK. I think it will prevent the iPhone from sweeping the board, and somewhat crimp its success. But it's not really a threat to Apple the way Microsoft was to the Mac in the 80s & 90s.

One thing to remember is that iPod owners can't move their music over to the Android (without paying a large one-time fee to convert their libraries to a portable, hi-fi format). Another thing is that the iTablet might come with a dock for the iPhone. If it does, that'll be a strong positive for both products.

Apple's Tablet: Consumers Will Buy, But What About Businesses?

I hope that Apple comes out with several models of its tablet, to serve various price points and market. (There are hints that it intends to do so.) In particular, I hope it offers a folding model. "Pocketability" would be a deal-maker/breaker for me. I could with a hinge in the middle of the screen.

One important market it may conquer is education. A good e-book reader function would be attractive. School systems could buy a ton of them, if there were a good quantity discount.

Periodical publishers might encourage purchases, if their content were available by subscription on the device. If this ecosystem could get traction, it could drive a lot of sales.

It's a Large World After All

What Felix meant was stock market efficiency--the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

Apple to Open 50 More Stores - Let's Be Careful, Steve

Manhattan is probably the only location with more than one store in the US--and it deserves several, based on the large number of commuters to it. The rest of the US is under-served, with the total store count only in the low hundreds. It's not as though SJ is opening a concession in every Starbucks. Adding 25 stores this year is a conservative pace.

Amazon-Sized Craziness

The speed, robustness, friendliness, and features of Amazon's web site cost a nine-figure sum and are unmatched anywhere. (Although I have a half-dozen gripes about it.) That's a tremendous moat. Walmart's online store is no threat.

Plus, Amazon has credit card info for half the US populace. Plus, Bezos gets the big picture and is willing to sacrifice the company's short-term and parochial interests for the long-term. Plus, the company is pioneering in cloud computing and e-book readers and who-knows-what-else.

(The iPhone is useful for short-term reading. For hours-long reading, it's harder on the eyes and exhausts its battery ten times faster. And it's harder to read in sunlight.)

Apple Has a Genuine Green Shoot

A beneficial side-effect of this ap development is that the programmers learn a subset of the OS & software tools used on the Mac, and do iPhone ap development on the Mac. This will make it easier for them to do development work for the Mac. Another beneficial effect is that it strengthens the Mac's incursion into the techno elite, who are trend-setters.

Expect Apple's December Earnings to Grow 37%

The AAPL tree is growing to the sky--grab a branch and hang on!

The Future Is Mobile: Telecom Returns

"That might be one of the best mixed metaphors that I have ever read."

(My favorite is, "When the going gets tough, make lemonade.") And don't forget the malapropism of "the doom and gloomers cannot see anything but digression ahead." (Watch out for those tangents!)

They're right about mobile becoming hot, and Google stands to benefit, but the wireless providers may not benefit much, because they're on the road to becoming dumb pipes and suffering from commoditization (resale of wireless minutes by wholesale buyers, etc.).

Report from Europe: Bulls Back in Control as G20 Agree on Nothing

"But (and this is a very BIG but), just as soon as the Fed indicates that it will need to begin raising interest rates, the US$ carry trade will need to be unwound before the spreads go negative."

But all that has to happen is for foreigners (perhaps involuntarily, as Julian Robertson has suggested) to lighten up on their Treasury-buying and that will push the interest rate up, indirectly.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 2

PS: The conventional wisdom a year ago was that AAPL would underperform in a recessionary environment, given its premium prices, onrushing smartphone competition from Palm's Pre and BB's Storm (etc.), and the uncertainty about SJ's health. Only uncertified bloggers got it right.

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

PS: "Motorola's (MOT) Droid is more likely to be a "Research in Motion (RIMM) killer than an Apple (AAPL) killer," remarked Cramer, who criticized RIM for buying back stock rather than finding new ways to grow the company."

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

There's a devastating InfoWorld review of RIMM's Blackberry, at www.infoworld.com/d/mo...

"Deathmatch: BlackBerry versus iPhone: It’s time for us to bury the BlackBerry and move on to modern mobile -- even for e-mail

"By Galen Gruman / InfoWorld / MAY 26, 2009"

It concludes, "For everyone else, the BlackBerry is yesterday's mobile messenger, way past its prime and heading toward retirement. The iPhone is light-years ahead of the BlackBerry on almost every count."

Subsequently Gruman felt betrayed and wrote about it when a revision to the iPhone's OS made the basic iPhone (not the GS version) inoperable with Microsoft's Office interface if hardware encryption security is enabled. But still, the iPhone GS is way ahead of the BB, and worth the extra $100 to a company.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 2

"Jason, an idiot could have predicted the climb in Apple shares over the last year if one could simply read or listen to the news."

Nonsense--all the "normal" analysts were not predicting any large upside from AAPL, with the exception of Munster. (Remember Huberty's two-digit year-ahead call?)

Apple has refreshed the Mac line with its technically difficult and forward looking Snow Leopard OS revision. Despite competition from Android, the iPhone will continue to grow share rapidly, and the iTablet could be a huge winner too. (I hope the company offers a foldable version, so I can pocket it.)

AAPL is vulnerable to a decline in equities, but not much else. Buy on dips for sure.

Apple Remains Overvalued, Despite Its Gadget Glory

PS: What I should have said was that Apple has "magic" beans--ones that will grow to the sky.

Apple Remains Overvalued, Despite Its Gadget Glory

"However, a comparison of dual-cash flow and accrual analysis between the two rivals clearly indicates that RIMM is a far better value than the big AAPL."

If you count RIMM's "beans," it has more of them; but Apple's are growing to the sky.