mplaut's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/259303/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175050-capital-requirements-are-a-bad-thing-says-morgan-stanley?source=feed#comment-777872 777872 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:46:00 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174389-google-s-chrome-os-are-you-ready-to-give-up-desktop-apps?source=feed#comment-768032 768032 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:20:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172829-low-savings-bad-investments?source=feed#comment-757204 757204
Also, there is the unstated assumption that one needs to replace all or most of pre-retirement income. I am not yet retired but I am not that far off. I can see many outlays that will not be there after retirement. So I am not sure that it is correct to assume that one needs to have the same income. Outlays for clothing, for example, will probably decline significantly, as will transportation outlays. Moving to a lower cost-of-living area can stretch the budget.

In general, also, one can often be quite happy on a downsized lifestyle.]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:39:06 -0500
Also, there is the unstated assumption that one needs to replace all or most of pre-retirement income. I am not yet retired but I am not that far off. I can see many outlays that will not be there after retirement. So I am not sure that it is correct to assume that one needs to have the same income. Outlays for clothing, for example, will probably decline significantly, as will transportation outlays. Moving to a lower cost-of-living area can stretch the budget.

In general, also, one can often be quite happy on a downsized lifestyle.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168716-gold-how-the-mainstream-gets-it-so-wrong?source=feed#comment-729755 729755
I am no economic historian, but just a quick search finds that there were major Panics in 1884, 1893 and 1907. According to the book "The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm" - Stock market crashes and banking panics had surfaced periodically in the United States and elsewhere throughout the nineteenth century.

Panics and crashes are caused by human character failings including excesses of greed and irresponsibility.

Neither the Federal Reserve nor a gold standard are magic bullets. We have to get grip on ourselves and improve our moral performance. No system will be effective against determined and creative efforts to game it.

The fault lies in ourselves and that is where we must turn to correct it.]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 18:16:00 -0400
I am no economic historian, but just a quick search finds that there were major Panics in 1884, 1893 and 1907. According to the book "The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm" - Stock market crashes and banking panics had surfaced periodically in the United States and elsewhere throughout the nineteenth century.

Panics and crashes are caused by human character failings including excesses of greed and irresponsibility.

Neither the Federal Reserve nor a gold standard are magic bullets. We have to get grip on ourselves and improve our moral performance. No system will be effective against determined and creative efforts to game it.

The fault lies in ourselves and that is where we must turn to correct it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164297-lockheed-sees-290mw-solar-project-it-was-to-build-cancelled?source=feed#comment-698428 698428
Murphy's Law?]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 10:26:15 -0400
Murphy's Law?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161279-social-security-here-s-how-to-extend-the-fund-s-life?source=feed#comment-676429 676429
Obviously the higher we can make the cutoff point, the better it is.]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:28:59 -0400
Obviously the higher we can make the cutoff point, the better it is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159880-misguided-thinking-on-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-661448 661448
Many of the MLPs with solid distributions pay a yield that is so high (more than 10%) that you can be happy with the yield as a yearly return on your money and you do not have to worry about price.

Yield is determined by analyzable aspects of the business. Price is a function of (mass) psychology. Which would you rather be dependent on?]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 07:55:10 -0400
Many of the MLPs with solid distributions pay a yield that is so high (more than 10%) that you can be happy with the yield as a yearly return on your money and you do not have to worry about price.

Yield is determined by analyzable aspects of the business. Price is a function of (mass) psychology. Which would you rather be dependent on?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159835-another-natural-gas-bull-sticks-his-neck-out?source=feed#comment-660645 660645 Thu, 03 Sep 2009 14:12:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159171-john-hussman-a-tale-of-two-data-sets?source=feed#comment-654739 654739
Thanks a lot.]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:45:36 -0400
Thanks a lot.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159026-market-vectors-agribusiness-etf-takes-a-hit-on-ubs-downgrades?source=feed#comment-654675 654675 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:27:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/157691-investing-in-natural-gas-it-s-time?source=feed#comment-641517 641517 Sun, 23 Aug 2009 07:07:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/156125-linn-energy-high-dividend-low-valuation?source=feed#comment-629975 629975 Fri, 14 Aug 2009 11:47:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154179-dave-s-top-10-reasons-this-recession-will-last-forever?source=feed#comment-617537 617537
The points are well-taken, but they may only mean that there will be a "new normal" of slow growth - more like Europe than the US in recent times. So what? Why is that a problem?

A lot of Europeans are happy with their lives. Why do we have to have 5% growth to be happy? With the kind of wealth that we already have, it should not be too hard to learn to live and be happy with 1-2% growth. ]]> Thu, 06 Aug 2009 07:05:09 -0400
The points are well-taken, but they may only mean that there will be a "new normal" of slow growth - more like Europe than the US in recent times. So what? Why is that a problem?

A lot of Europeans are happy with their lives. Why do we have to have 5% growth to be happy? With the kind of wealth that we already have, it should not be too hard to learn to live and be happy with 1-2% growth. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153236-enterprise-products-partners-linn-energy-petroleum-profits-without-the-drama?source=feed#comment-613109 613109 Mon, 03 Aug 2009 13:24:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151685-kinder-morgan-s-dividend-payout-rate-is-unsustainable?source=feed#comment-604667 604667
KMP will have no problems sustaining its distribution.

LINE yields over 11% and will also be able to keep it up for the foreseeable future.

MLP distributions are also tax advantaged for the most part, but filing the return is more complicated.]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 07:07:13 -0400
KMP will have no problems sustaining its distribution.

LINE yields over 11% and will also be able to keep it up for the foreseeable future.

MLP distributions are also tax advantaged for the most part, but filing the return is more complicated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151378-calpers-betting-the-house?source=feed#comment-602444 602444 Sun, 26 Jul 2009 09:58:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149921-the-fine-line-between-profits-and-theft?source=feed#comment-595564 595564
GS deserve to have their wings clipped IMO, but they are not guilty as charged here. They did not just load up AIG and wait for the government to bail them out. You write: "they had no right to it, as AIG was in fact insolvent and they would have collected zero had the firm gone into bankruptcy."

In fact, GS knew that AIG was not a reliable counterparty and they had hedged and collateralized all of their exposure to AIG. They would have gotten their money whether AIG was bailed out or not.

See:
economicsofcontempt.bl...

I repeat that I still think that the government should claw back some of GS's recent profits, but they did trade very smart and did not rely on AIG or a government bailout of AIG as charged here.]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:17:44 -0400
GS deserve to have their wings clipped IMO, but they are not guilty as charged here. They did not just load up AIG and wait for the government to bail them out. You write: "they had no right to it, as AIG was in fact insolvent and they would have collected zero had the firm gone into bankruptcy."

In fact, GS knew that AIG was not a reliable counterparty and they had hedged and collateralized all of their exposure to AIG. They would have gotten their money whether AIG was bailed out or not.

See:
economicsofcontempt.bl...

I repeat that I still think that the government should claw back some of GS's recent profits, but they did trade very smart and did not rely on AIG or a government bailout of AIG as charged here.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148644-the-silvinet-deal-continues-to-hit-potash-and-mosaic?source=feed#comment-589664 589664 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:09:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148774-can-we-hope-to-abolish-debt-related-tax-incentives?source=feed#comment-588185 588185 "... the UK, for instance, abolished mortgage-interest tax relief in 2000, a move which had no visible effect whatsoever on either house prices or homeownership, but which did wonders for the exchequer."

If so, it also did nothing to stop the UK real estate market from bubbling up at least as high or higher than the American market. So why bother?]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:03:25 -0400 "... the UK, for instance, abolished mortgage-interest tax relief in 2000, a move which had no visible effect whatsoever on either house prices or homeownership, but which did wonders for the exchequer."

If so, it also did nothing to stop the UK real estate market from bubbling up at least as high or higher than the American market. So why bother?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148261-jp-morgan-high-frequency-trading-a-form-of-parasitic-market-making?source=feed#comment-584472 584472
www.themistrading.com/...

The bottom line:

5. High frequency trading strategies have become a stealth tax on retail and institutional investors. While stock prices will probably go where they would have gone anyway, toxic trading takes money from real investors and gives it to the high frequency trader who has the best computer. The exchanges, ECNs and high frequency traders are slowly bleeding investors, causing their transaction costs to rise, and the investors don’t even know it.]]> Sun, 12 Jul 2009 12:25:00 -0400
www.themistrading.com/...

The bottom line:

5. High frequency trading strategies have become a stealth tax on retail and institutional investors. While stock prices will probably go where they would have gone anyway, toxic trading takes money from real investors and gives it to the high frequency trader who has the best computer. The exchanges, ECNs and high frequency traders are slowly bleeding investors, causing their transaction costs to rise, and the investors don’t even know it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147177-u-s-fiscal-train-wreck-underway?source=feed#comment-575729 575729
In "normal" times there should be some visibility a year to two years ahead. Now, since what happens depends so much on policy choices and not on impersonal market forces, there is no way to know what will happen. Plan accordingly, and not based on a scenario that is possible, but nothing more than that.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:10:56 -0400
In "normal" times there should be some visibility a year to two years ahead. Now, since what happens depends so much on policy choices and not on impersonal market forces, there is no way to know what will happen. Plan accordingly, and not based on a scenario that is possible, but nothing more than that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146664-a-buzzkill-for-bottom-callers-companies-stockpiling-cash?source=feed#comment-571871 571871
These are not numbers that many people follow and there is no way to know what they mean without knowing these kinds of comparisons.

After clicking on the report, I do not find much of "buzzkill for the bottom-callers" as it is billed here.

First of all this is only the 4th survey, so they have very little to compare with. And second, even within that little bit, things seem to be more-or-less the same as last year: "Forty-two percent of organizations held larger balances of U.S. cash and short-term investments in May 2009 than they did in late 2008. Still, the percentage of organizations that decreased their U.S. and non-U.S. holdings of cash and short-term investments is nearly the same as a year earlier. Twenty-eight percent of organizations are carrying smaller cash and short-term investment balances, while 30 percent of organizations report no significant change in their short-term investment balances. In the 2008 AFP Liquidity Survey, 37 percent of organizations reported that they carried larger cash and short-term balances over the previous year, while 29 percent reported carrying smaller balances."]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:43:48 -0400
These are not numbers that many people follow and there is no way to know what they mean without knowing these kinds of comparisons.

After clicking on the report, I do not find much of "buzzkill for the bottom-callers" as it is billed here.

First of all this is only the 4th survey, so they have very little to compare with. And second, even within that little bit, things seem to be more-or-less the same as last year: "Forty-two percent of organizations held larger balances of U.S. cash and short-term investments in May 2009 than they did in late 2008. Still, the percentage of organizations that decreased their U.S. and non-U.S. holdings of cash and short-term investments is nearly the same as a year earlier. Twenty-eight percent of organizations are carrying smaller cash and short-term investment balances, while 30 percent of organizations report no significant change in their short-term investment balances. In the 2008 AFP Liquidity Survey, 37 percent of organizations reported that they carried larger cash and short-term balances over the previous year, while 29 percent reported carrying smaller balances."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146486-the-uneasy-relationship-between-debt-democracy-and-capitalism?source=feed#comment-570350 570350
"Second, we have to learn to live within our means. This means spending less than we earn, perhaps doing without the BMWs, flat-screen television sets and leather sofas."]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:48:06 -0400
"Second, we have to learn to live within our means. This means spending less than we earn, perhaps doing without the BMWs, flat-screen television sets and leather sofas."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143868-linn-tortoise-energy-risk-vs-reward?source=feed#comment-553317 553317
Their mix of production vs derivative income is affected by O&G prices, but their overall income is pretty stable and in any case good enough to sustain the distribution in reasonable scenarios. Under the extreme conditions that would threaten their current distribution level, it is probable that no other O&G company could sustain theirs either, so TYG would probably also wind up cutting.]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 01:04:25 -0400
Their mix of production vs derivative income is affected by O&G prices, but their overall income is pretty stable and in any case good enough to sustain the distribution in reasonable scenarios. Under the extreme conditions that would threaten their current distribution level, it is probable that no other O&G company could sustain theirs either, so TYG would probably also wind up cutting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143832-reverse-convertibles-more-financial-innovation?source=feed#comment-551330 551330
Gambling is increasing on Native American reservations, and that seems to be the growth industry in many areas. ]]> Wed, 17 Jun 2009 23:50:20 -0400
Gambling is increasing on Native American reservations, and that seems to be the growth industry in many areas. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142094-high-yield-securities-need-to-refresh?source=feed#comment-538814 538814
It is impossible to know what will happen in the next few months, but over the long run LINE looks as good as ever. The next distribution payment is in August, so you might want to wait and hope for a pullback, but then again it may go higher by then.

LINE is good value at $20 and that is the best way to look at it, but if you want to check the prices daily, then, as tc1 says, it may be a bit overbought.]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 11:37:28 -0400
It is impossible to know what will happen in the next few months, but over the long run LINE looks as good as ever. The next distribution payment is in August, so you might want to wait and hope for a pullback, but then again it may go higher by then.

LINE is good value at $20 and that is the best way to look at it, but if you want to check the prices daily, then, as tc1 says, it may be a bit overbought.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141610-best-investments-for-rising-oil?source=feed#comment-535637 535637
"USO All the Drops and None of the Gains"

seekingalpha.com/artic...

for a well argued presentation of the long-term inadvisedness of holding USO and other commodity ETFs.

Although you might do okay for a while, the steady month-to-month loss in the rollovers is not good for your investment health. He also explains how sharp traders take advantage of the rollovers and make them worse.

USO started off at the same value as crude and is now about a third of its value.]]> Sun, 07 Jun 2009 10:26:23 -0400
"USO All the Drops and None of the Gains"

seekingalpha.com/artic...

for a well argued presentation of the long-term inadvisedness of holding USO and other commodity ETFs.

Although you might do okay for a while, the steady month-to-month loss in the rollovers is not good for your investment health. He also explains how sharp traders take advantage of the rollovers and make them worse.

USO started off at the same value as crude and is now about a third of its value.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139286-why-citigroup-is-bullish-on-fertilizers?source=feed#comment-516044 516044
The factors cited by Mr Juvekar apply to all three major fertilizer components, and if they hold, will contribute to better pricing all across the board and not just in Potash. ]]> Sun, 24 May 2009 10:47:02 -0400
The factors cited by Mr Juvekar apply to all three major fertilizer components, and if they hold, will contribute to better pricing all across the board and not just in Potash. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138774-search-why-are-they-trying-to-fix-something-that-isn-t-broken?source=feed#comment-512013 512013 Wed, 20 May 2009 17:22:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138311-fundamentals-don-t-support-oil-at-55-60-a-barrel?source=feed#comment-508890 508890 Mon, 18 May 2009 18:51:17 -0400