mplaut

Nothing Suggests We're Anywhere Near the Bottom

A lot of the "green shoots" crowd are encouraged by the fact that the DECLINE is SLOWING, not that there is any upturn yet. For example the fact that we "only" lost 500,000 jobs in the most recent month and not more than 600,000 like we had been doing for several months, is a sign that the decline is slowing and that a bottom is NEAR, not that it has been reached. The stock market is supposed to be forward looking and that crowd is trying to help it to do its job. They are not arguing that we have bottomed, but only that the bottom is in sight and we are no longer in free fall.