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Topgunme

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  • Netflix Has A Future: Here Are 4 Reasons Why [View article]
    Buy / sell, stick to the basics. For the Fundamental investor, it is horrible but so has been many stocks before & many more to come which turn into profitable trading. Apple, Google, Microsoft, Yahoo are all rejected by my Fundamental evaluator, Stock Butler. Yet, for the swing trader, just follow the ADX, PPO, STO, & other indicators for option opportunity. In our trading group, the head master rejected Netflix on Fundamentals, yet, the options instructor does calls & puts as they appear.

    As for Mr. Cho not owning, it is to be non-basis. The same was with me in Q1 2007, I didn't own any shares & stated it in submitting a report to corporate to take a position in Netflix when it was $18. Of course corporate knew better & rejected the idea. Now, 2014, they have a major deal with Netflix as well as other major content suppliers. Funny how things come around. Yes, I kept the report as a trophy that I was right.

    Mr. Cho is correct in the very basic; How to argue with 40 million monthly paying customers? It was the same question I answered when Eron was flying & ConEdison was just floating at $8.50 in 2002. Eron had no equipment & customers, ConEdison owned the transmission lines, towers, equipment & monthly paying customers. Until delivered electricity is replace by 100% home solar, ConEdison will be around. In the end, Eron died & ConEdison is still a live at $57. Cash flow is king.

    Forget all the noise, stick to the charts, that is why we all go to trading school.
    Jun 27 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY: What Could Derail The Rally? [View article]
    My trade group did a seasonality chart & this trading season has been a bit abnormal. The correction should had happened last May but the market is holding on. Thus, watch July & August for the low. Then get ready for a another bull run to the end of Q1 2015. The wild card are small major wars like Syria being engaged by Israel, Baghdad falling & the South China Sea. If these escalate to a world conflict, the market correction will happen. If not, it will be rocky but the market will survive. Only the institutional investor will drag the market, when they start liquidating, head to the door. That is why the yield curve has nothing to show & VIX is low. The only influence the consumer has is stop shopping for anything & everything. Yet, in SoCal, home prices are strong & people are finding the money to buy. Hopefully, it is not funny money like 2008-2009. People need to have real jobs to service the loan & apparently there are some out there. Here, corporate needs to get back in the cycle; will paid employee is a well spending consumer.
    Jun 27 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Net Neutrality Monster Has A Close Relative [View article]
    So, here we are, at the end of June & my streaming from Netflix & Hulu are still going strong. Clear is still my provider & the net world has not collapse. Let us focus on trading & not the crazy politics. If ADX, Stochastics, MCAD, etc. indicate sell, sell, if to buy, buy. "Don't fight the market, it is bigger than you." Courtney Smith, Wealth Builder LLC as my master teacher has said. Seeking Alpha is about finding trading opportunities, not pot shots about whom is right or wrong. Just learn to be the best trader you can be. The market will call the pot shots, just be ready to take advantage & be successful.
    Jun 27 08:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crowdsourcing goes Hollywood: Writer-director Rob Thomas successfully raises $2.7M and counting in a Kickstarter campaign that just launched yesterday after his movie was stalled by execs at Warner Bros TWX. Due to the successful grassroots-level raise of funds, the movie Veronica Mars will move to pre-production and be shot over the summer - by insider accounts a first for the industry. The read-through could be interesting for studios (LGF, DIS, VIA, CMCSA, SNE) as they test new ways to gauge market reaction before making large investments into projects. [View news story]
    In direct response to "Writer-director Rob Thomas successfully raises $2.7M", this is proof how the majors are out of touch with social media & the power of a following to raise money independently. The great part, WB now has no lines to tell Rob Thomas how to do his project. When completed to the director's cut & WB rejects it, Rob Thomas is free to market anywhere. As stated prior, his fans have earned their bragging rights. Kudos to the fans to speak up with their own money & support of Rob Thomas.
    Jun 27 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crowdsourcing goes Hollywood: Writer-director Rob Thomas successfully raises $2.7M and counting in a Kickstarter campaign that just launched yesterday after his movie was stalled by execs at Warner Bros TWX. Due to the successful grassroots-level raise of funds, the movie Veronica Mars will move to pre-production and be shot over the summer - by insider accounts a first for the industry. The read-through could be interesting for studios (LGF, DIS, VIA, CMCSA, SNE) as they test new ways to gauge market reaction before making large investments into projects. [View news story]
    That is exactly true. But before going to Kickstarter & its affiliates, the social media analytics need to be done. Yes, Kickstarter & such is more about passion than ROI, yet, with data mining, a project can be gauged for probability of success. Even donors want to be a winning project, not the "just ran". Fan bragging rights is paramount to the donor. For investors, the focus is ROI, yet, the goal is the same, a winning project. Thus, no matter the money source, there are the three questions; "How much in, out & when?" that need answers. I just attended "Next TV Summit, Santa Monica, 2014" & social measurement is a major component to rise probability of success. That is where FilmBreak.com comes in with social media analytics through data mining.
    Jun 27 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    As a technical trader, NFLX was good for a call option on May 13th, ADX weakening, PPO, STO, RSI & MCAD all raising, classic bull flag. As I stated before, enjoy the service & trade the stock like any other. Nothing special & no buy/hold. Get in & out, in either direction & charge the profits against monthly subscription which would last a lifetime with the right amount of capital.
    May 22 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    In continuing on China, piracy is ramped & Central Committee is slow in stopping because it will put a lot people out business & cause economic chaos. SoHo/Netflix cut into the pirates because of faster better quality delivery that the middle class of 340 million can afford. Also, benefiting Netflix is their Disney connection, no matter how big or small since I don't have all the details. Yet, the Chinese are crazy about Disney with gross sales & park attendance as hard proof. So any connection to Disney as content delivery and/or event tie, is all income, large income.

    On piracy, I see dropping off as streaming becomes more popular. In downtown Los Angeles' Fashion district, I see less and less pirate vendors. Of the few I do see, there are few customers. Nobody is lining up. As a fellow commentator said, the $1 bin is full of older titles. Netflix delivers lots of titles for $8 streaming $15 two disc. How cheap can it get? That is, other than the commercial supported movie streaming movies on Hulu, still $8.

    Discalimer: I have Netflix streaming & 4 disc plus Hulu+.

    As said, today's value to tomorrow's discount.

    Here is a prediction: The Hero's of Hell's Kitchen, when it reaches China will explode. It will be the Netflix/Disney biggest money maker. Later, in 2 years, it will generate income, not as much, and the new content arrives to replace it.

    I am disappointed that Reed Hastings keeps saying DVDs will go. The good part, not any time soon because DVDs actually make more profit than streaming. Streaming is here to stay but not the catch all to viewing. Probably another 5 years if streaming can gain profit over DVDs & all titles become available on streaming. That I see is a big "If". It has been 2 since Reed did the split & DVDs are still here.

    The smart thing for Netflix, keep DVDs for the all titles & stream those that are cost effective.

    As for stock analysis & their crystal ball, they are a grain of salt. Look, after Netflix drop from $300 to $50, my broker said it will never be $300 again. So Netflix hits $50, they said don't buy. Then Netflix went to $100, don't buy, then $200 & don't buy. Now, over $400, still don't buy. These are the same people that said buy Eron as was collapsing before our very eyes. Keep to your own rules of buy & sell. That is how I play Netflix, it is just another stock like Disney, Sony, etc. Love the service & play the options according to my method.

    Unfortunately, I didn't stop listening to my broker in time. Today, I would have had a over a million. Oh, well, there is always other opportunities & I will make it without the broker's advise.
    Mar 6 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    In attending a media conference at USC, the US-China Institute commented that this was in the works. The problem is China's media is well protected. Want to talk about throttling, look to China. Only a limited number of USA films & shows are allowed where Disney is top tier. The delivery system, SoHo in agreement with Netflix. There are only so many allocations, Disney submits there product & China Media Committee selects what goes. Disney then sends the approved list & SoHo/Netflix deleiver. Then, the rest follow till the allocations are full. Even after you get release approval, your product can get pulled for any reason like a national holiday or Central Committee wants a certain message mass distributed bumping your product out.

    Still, China's middle class is just shy of the total US population. 10% of that is 30 million + 44 million, 74 million without all of Europe & South America yet online. Netflix is ahead of the curve, world Internet speed needs to catch up. Another thing missing in this discussion, the DVD division might be shrinking but not that fast. I still have 4 disk rotation & online. If anything, we have throttled back adding titles till we cut down our cue list. As stated before, Netflix is a stock to be bought & sold, enjoy the service to your desire. As for sports on Netflix, maybe, but no time soon. Hell, Los Angeles can't even get a team because the NFL use it a bargaining chip to keep league owners at bay. But that is another story.
    Game of Thrones, all 4 disk have arrived & we are into a nice long weekend. Cheers!
    Oh, DTV cable cut & they have sent the 5th offer to come back. Their spending ad dollars down the drain. Smart? No, LOL
    Feb 21 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Net Neutrality Monster Has A Close Relative [View article]
    I agree, cable bundling is going up into hundreds a month. A total stranger & I where talking about this. He is at $175 with Time Warner & price seems to be jumping every few months. He is not a sports fan. Yet, he loves HBO. After I explained that with Roku he can get HBO la cart for current and/or get Netflix & fill his cue with all of HBO past offerings. He'll save an easy $100 to $150 a month. He was very jazz about the whole concept. Yes, there is equipment cost but when I had Direct TV they were charging $20 a month for the equipment. Therefore, even after purchasing Roku, it would amortize in 2 months payback.
    Feb 12 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Net Neutrality Monster Has A Close Relative [View article]
    Also, they were at 36 million. Since that occurred 2 years ago, they now have 40 million.
    People will whine but what other service is out there in wide library, convenience & delivery with DVDs & streaming at $7 to $30 (I am 4 DVD & streaming). Amazon is about "see it now" for the flaky trend people. Netflix customers are more selective & fill in the time with other titles till something becomes available. Also, this applies more to on the go people whom will see a movie on a tiny screen. Not me, I love my 60" screen, comfort & great selection of wine & cheese that is not easy on the go or at the theater. Want hear people whine, raise gasoline prices every week. Not every few years. Please see my post on Netflix.
    Feb 12 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    On an investment level: Netflix is a stock & like any other stock it needs to have the right technical analysis to go long or short as well as options as bull put or spread. As any high price stock, it meets the criteria or stays on the shelf like Apple, Amazon, etc.
    Netflix's failing is not raising prices gradually every 2 years, yet, premium service is okay for those that are willing to pay. I will not join in because I still have a 100 plus items slated for viewing. That is another element analysis miss. Amazon & Hulu are all about seeing "it now herd" but Netflix is about choice of time & no pressure to be part of the herd. Take Game of Thrones, we are one season behind & don't care. Next week we get all of Season 3 & enjoy it as one long movie over 4 evenings with wine, cheese & crackers. This is how 40 million subscribers with thousands of taste & preferences view their cost effective selection. As content is king, here in Los Angeles at media conferences, Netflix is always in the center of the conversation in distribution & expansion. Studios might not like Netflix's payment, but they all work hard to be on Netflix. You cannot ignore 40 million potential viewers. The cable companies do hate Netflix & for good reason. People pay to see content without cable bundling for sports they don't watch but cost millions they have to pay with their bundle. I know many cable cutters & it is going to get worst with Roku & Internet speed improvements. The decision maker will be un-interrupted speed. Here, Clear is the winner in speed cost effectiveness. I tried Version, Sprint, AT&T & GoAmerica Internet services, they all failed. Comcast is already striking back in slowing Internet speed to any customer viewing Netflix. This is a self-serving interest and not to their 20 million customers. I believe Comcast is shooting itself in the foot to protect a dieing business model. Another failure on Netflix is not having an Internet partner or stake in a provider. NFL channel is welcome for paying fans. If it goes Netflix, it just becomes another added service. If NFL stays independent, like any other sports league, they still would eye Netflix for their distribution system without the headache of sitting up an operation just for seasonal games & dead weight the rest of the year.
    Conclusion: Buy the stock according to your own criteria of stock selection, keep to your entry & exit rules and monitor your position for changes. Take or leave the service as to your entertainment desire but don't ignore cash flow just like Apple, Amazon, GE, Priceline, etc. I am not an Apple fan but I do look at the stock. Millions of customers cannot be wrong. Customers are the fuel of any business & poor products/services quickly show in the market place. That is why theater owners fear poor product from the studios & consumers armed with iPads texting their mind about a product's delivery is more powerful than any ad campaign. At media conferences it is about wide selectivity, convenience & subjective delivery. Many people still like DVDs, some are streaming only & some like both. This breaks down by generational lines that young people are on the move & older folks enjoy their big screens in comfort. It is a matter of choice of titles & viewing environment.
    On a personal level; I have had Netflix since 2003 & don't see any time changing soon. As stated by the author, our household likes story & binge viewing is the best to enjoy the story without interruptions. For homes with active multi-screens & willing to pay, more power to them. Word of warning is; who are the Internet Providers that have a conflicting interest to delivery speed & serve their own content interest?
    Feb 12 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    On an investment level: Netflix is a stock & like any other stock it needs to have the right technical analysis to go long or short as well as options as bull put or spread. As any high price stock, it meets the criteria or stays on the shelf like Apple, Amazon, etc.
    Netflix's failing is not raising prices gradually every 2 years, yet, premium service is okay for those that are willing to pay. I will not join in because I still have a 100 plus items slated for viewing. That is another element analysis miss. Amazon & Hulu are all about seeing "the latest herd" but Netflix is about choice of time & no pressure to be part of the herd. Take Game of Thrones, we are one season behind & don't care. Next week we get all of Season 3 & enjoy it as one long movie over 4 evenings with wine, cheese & crackers. This is how 40 million subscribers with thousands of taste & preferences view their cost effective selection. As content is king, here in Los Angeles at media conferences, Netflix is always in the center of the conversation in distribution & expansion. Studios might not like Netflix's payment, but they all work hard to be on Netflix. You cannot ignore 40 million potential viewers. The cable companies do hate Netflix & for good reason. People pay to see content without cable bundling for sports they don't watch but cost millions they have to pay with their bundle. I know many cable cutters & it is going to get worst with Roku & Internet speed improvements. The decision maker will be un-interrupted speed. Here, Clear is the winner in speed cost effectiveness. I tried Version, Sprint, AT&T & GoAmerica Internet services, they all failed. Comcast is already striking back in slowing Internet speed to any customer viewing Netflix. This is a self-serving interest and not to their 20 million customers. Another failure on Netflix is not having an Internet partner or stake in a provider. NFL channel is welcome for paying fans. If it goes Netflix, it just becomes another added service. If NFL stays independent, like any other sports league, they still would eye Netflix for their distribution system without the headache of sitting up an operation just for seasonal games & dead weight the rest of the year.
    Conclusion: Buy the stock according to your own criteria of stock selection, keep to your entry & exit rules and monitor your position for changes. Take or leave the service as to your entertainment desire. Don't ignore cash flow just like Apple, Amazon, GE, Priceline, etc. Millions of customers cannot be wrong. Customers are the fuel of any business & poor products/services quickly show in the market place. That is why theater owners fear poor product from the studios & consumers armed with iPads texting their mind about a product's delivery is more powerful than any ad campaign.
    On a personal level; I have had Netflix since 2003 & don't see any time changing soon. As stated by the author, our household likes story & binge viewing is the best to enjoy the story without interruptions. For homes with active multi-screens & willing to pay, more power to them. Word of warning is, who are the Internet Providers that have a conflicting interest to deliver speed & serve their own content interest.
    Feb 12 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crowdsourcing goes Hollywood: Writer-director Rob Thomas successfully raises $2.7M and counting in a Kickstarter campaign that just launched yesterday after his movie was stalled by execs at Warner Bros TWX. Due to the successful grassroots-level raise of funds, the movie Veronica Mars will move to pre-production and be shot over the summer - by insider accounts a first for the industry. The read-through could be interesting for studios (LGF, DIS, VIA, CMCSA, SNE) as they test new ways to gauge market reaction before making large investments into projects. [View news story]
    FilmBreak.com is exactly what this article is about. Before going crazy on a multi million dollar project, be sure there is audience support. I invite any production group & investors whom are in need to gauge their project, posted it on FilmBreak.com & see what attention & support it can garner. Any production with a flop, had it gauge the audience first & garner a support basis, could had avoided and/or corrected the situation before losing the money. FilmBreak.com is similar to Comic Con to gauge a project, yet, it is 24/7 live & before a production gets started. A production does not have to wait for conventions, screenings and other media sources after post production to get the immediate audience response. By then, it is too late, the money is spent and a lost investment.
    Mar 14 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Up After Hours, Beats Street With $945 Million In Revenue And 2 Million New Subscribers [View article]
    People can argue all they want but these facts remain the same; the largest subscriber base, cutting edge technology, the largest library, and ahead of its competition entering the international market. Netflix still has not hit the largest markets; China & Netflix has the largest Chinese library, the same for Korea with has the best internet service & India with has the largest English speaking population outside of North Am & England and Singapore which has the best economics per capital & main language is mandatory English. South Am will grow slowly due to lower per capital & internet service is spotty, yet Netflix, where available, has the largest Spanish library to offer. The future, Disney's library will help Netflix. Disney which has the best distribution deal with China; evident Hong Kong & Shanghai Disney, the only country outside the USA with 2 Disneys in country. Ten years from now, Disney gets resorts attach to the above mention locations. Bejing loves Disney for cash flow, solid employment & Netflix gets to ride the coat tails. If you don't like the stock, don't buy it but realize numbers, larger numbers, speak louder than words. It is not going to happen over night. Amazon & others keep playing catch up. They can not run fast enough.
    Jan 24 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Force Is Strong With The Netflix / Disney Deal [View article]
    I presented a proposal to Disney in February 2006 that they buy Netflix, keep it as a separate distribution channel like their broadcast operations, therefore be an all entertainment industry releasing company.
    But because I was not on the creative executive staff, my proposal was DOA. Today, even though the deal is not exactly like it was proposed, it is the next best thing.
    Well done to both parties.
    Dec 17 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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