a believer

General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse?

March 4 - GE at 6.5 - going to zero???

A dozen fomer Countrywide executives say their business of mopping up delinquent home mortgages that the government took over from other failed banks, sometimes for pennies on the dollar, is off-the-charts good.

The mortgage thieves have to find ways to continue stealing. Now they're *Obama-enabled."

S&P 500: Inflation Adjusted Chart Looks a Little Different

Great perspective.

When you say *...the chart doesn’t show the massive double top...* to me it shows very clearly. (??)

I am curious - what is the second suppot level (1968 top) you show in today's index value? It looks like about 650.

The AIG Scandal

ED K

Don't worry, you won't pay the $803.00 in extra taxes. Instead, next year you'll pay $1,606.00 for last year's $803.00 worth of goods and services.

Part of the reason for this is that the *financial servcies* industry (isn't that starting to sound like an oxymoron?) is by far the largest $$ contributor to BOTH political parties, and they really know how government works.

(We Won't Get Fooled Again!)

Gold Bugs vs. Gold Haters

Gold Barron:

You are exactly right in your last point, which is that inflation is not on the minds of most people - few that I have recently talked to are concerned about it. But inflation is the way that the government will be able to impose a huge tax increase without calling it a *tax increase*. A significant tax increase is a political impossibility.

The government is absolutely committed to re-inflating the collapsing debt bubble with...cash in the form of government debt, i.e., more dollars than ever chasing decreasing goods and services, ZImbabwe-style.

Obama and Congress can increase spending at a high percentage of GDP and even promise *tax cuts* knowing that most will pay very real taxes in the form of inflation down the road. This is the *Mugabe Effect* on a much larger scale.

I have seen my monthly costs increase for many things in the last few months, which leaves me doubting that we are in a deflationary environment in the U.S.

For these reasons, right now we have the strongest fundamental I have ever seen for owning precious metals. A significant number of U.S. citizens buying and holding gold will destroy the government's scheme, which is why there is a viable scenario in which gold ownership could be outlawed in the U.S. Not likely, but a scenario.

(I'm now curious, is gold ownership legal in Zimbabwe?)

Disclosure: I have a very small position in GLD and SLV (in an IRA), but I believe that owning the physical gold makes better sense.

The Benefits of This Recession

Sorry to diappoint, but *we* cannot sit down, create, and implement a model. It is that kind of thinking that is in fact lunacy.


On Feb 27 12:57 PM User 270430 wrote:

> Ok, who designed this economic model which requires insanity followed
> by collapse? I
>
> t's the 21st century, surely we can sit down and come up with a better
> model that does not threaten Western Civilization every couple of
> generations.
>
> I mean think about WWI, WWII, and god forbid, if the current "recession"
> leads to WWIII... You get the picture? Pure lunacy, in my opinion.
>
>

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Too risky. Have you backtested? Long+short, over time, is a losers bet with most ETFs.


On Feb 26 09:08 AM AndrewBaker wrote:

> Right now volatility is so high and market movements so unpredicable,
> that long short pairs trading is one of the few ways to make money.
> Taking a one-way position in financial, for example, is a big gamble
> right now. I'm taking positions long and short, and selling the first
> one to show a reasonable profit, then waiting for the other to come
> back and go into profit. Using 2x and 3x leverage ups the anti and
> is hairy, but I need the adrenaline!

Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20

I apologise for the triple-post. Don't know what happened there...

Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20

Spare cash has become an oxymoron.

On Feb 22 01:33 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:

> I don't honestly know what to make of this. If I had a bit of spare
> cash though, I'd probably buy a few hundred BAC shares though, just
> to be in on the joke either way.

Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20

Spare cash has become an oxymoron.

On Feb 22 01:33 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:

> I don't honestly know what to make of this. If I had a bit of spare
> cash though, I'd probably buy a few hundred BAC shares though, just
> to be in on the joke either way.

Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20

Spare cash has become an oxymoron.

On Feb 22 01:33 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:

> I don't honestly know what to make of this. If I had a bit of spare
> cash though, I'd probably buy a few hundred BAC shares though, just
> to be in on the joke either way.

Richard Russell: Bear Market Remains in Force

Eventually the only option the US government has is to print its way out and devalue the dollar, thereby decreasing the national debt which will be in relatively fixed dollars. This argues well for gold and commodities ownership long term. In the short term there will be bear market rallies.

Why would the government ban 'paper gold' (gold futures) ownership? I don't see why this would happen or how it would benefit the government.

Sentiment Overview: Pessimists Increase by 18%

Herbert Hoover:

I have to totally disagree.

Sell what you have left during the next bear market rally and invest what's left in a precious metals ETF or physical gold and silver coins. Or at least hold onto the cash until inflation starts its inevitable ramp up and then find a way to protect its value. That is, if its not too late.

Speaking of ramp-ups, check out GOE daily! Is this a harbinger of the infaltion to come?


On Feb 21 06:18 PM Herbert Hoover wrote:

> There's no reason to sell now. You may as well just sit there and
> watch it run its course.

Sentiment Overview: Pessimists Increase by 18%

My father-in-law spent most of his cash on tech stocks and blue chips in the fall of 2000 (at the peak).

He had a stroke and died in December of that year. The following month his wife called Schwab repeatedly and tried to get them to sell the stocks. Scwab would not sell them because the stocks were not in her name.

The crash came in March 2001, and again last year. She still owns those stocks but they are worth only a small fraction of what they paid for them 9 years ago, and of course they are still going down. The tech stocks fell 89% in 2001 and they are now back below those levels. Like many of you I think the blue chips have alot further to fall in the weeks and months to come, since they are only down about 50% from the 2007 peak.

This is just a lesson for those of you who don't think it will happen to you. In the midst of this market carnage, you need to have a well thought out exit strategy.

Letterman on the stimulus package.

Yes, it's satire, but only partially. Parts of the world are very close to the conditions in the first part of this clip - for example, Mexico.

I pray that large U.S. cities will not descend into lawlessness.