a believer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/260028/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/106445-general-electric-genuine-risk-of-collapse?source=feed#comment-413333 413333 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:00:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/19160?source=feed#comment-412801 412801
]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 12:04:17 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124103-s-p-500-inflation-adjusted-chart-looks-a-little-different?source=feed#comment-412788 412788
When you say *...the chart doesn’t show the massive double top...* to me it shows very clearly. (??)

I am curious - what is the second suppot level (1968 top) you show in today's index value? It looks like about 650.]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 11:59:34 -0500
When you say *...the chart doesn’t show the massive double top...* to me it shows very clearly. (??)

I am curious - what is the second suppot level (1968 top) you show in today's index value? It looks like about 650.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123606-the-aig-scandal?source=feed#comment-410053 410053
Don't worry, you won't pay the $803.00 in extra taxes. Instead, next year you'll pay $1,606.00 for last year's $803.00 worth of goods and services.

Part of the reason for this is that the *financial servcies* industry (isn't that starting to sound like an oxymoron?) is by far the largest $$ contributor to BOTH political parties, and they really know how government works.

(We Won't Get Fooled Again!)]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 16:55:35 -0500
Don't worry, you won't pay the $803.00 in extra taxes. Instead, next year you'll pay $1,606.00 for last year's $803.00 worth of goods and services.

Part of the reason for this is that the *financial servcies* industry (isn't that starting to sound like an oxymoron?) is by far the largest $$ contributor to BOTH political parties, and they really know how government works.

(We Won't Get Fooled Again!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123373-gold-bugs-vs-gold-haters?source=feed#comment-408465 408465
You are exactly right in your last point, which is that inflation is not on the minds of most people - few that I have recently talked to are concerned about it. But inflation is the way that the government will be able to impose a huge tax increase without calling it a *tax increase*. A significant tax increase is a political impossibility.

The government is absolutely committed to re-inflating the collapsing debt bubble with...cash in the form of government debt, i.e., more dollars than ever chasing decreasing goods and services, ZImbabwe-style.

Obama and Congress can increase spending at a high percentage of GDP and even promise *tax cuts* knowing that most will pay very real taxes in the form of inflation down the road. This is the *Mugabe Effect* on a much larger scale.

I have seen my monthly costs increase for many things in the last few months, which leaves me doubting that we are in a deflationary environment in the U.S.

For these reasons, right now we have the strongest fundamental I have ever seen for owning precious metals. A significant number of U.S. citizens buying and holding gold will destroy the government's scheme, which is why there is a viable scenario in which gold ownership could be outlawed in the U.S. Not likely, but a scenario.

(I'm now curious, is gold ownership legal in Zimbabwe?)

Disclosure: I have a very small position in GLD and SLV (in an IRA), but I believe that owning the physical gold makes better sense.]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 18:20:13 -0500
You are exactly right in your last point, which is that inflation is not on the minds of most people - few that I have recently talked to are concerned about it. But inflation is the way that the government will be able to impose a huge tax increase without calling it a *tax increase*. A significant tax increase is a political impossibility.

The government is absolutely committed to re-inflating the collapsing debt bubble with...cash in the form of government debt, i.e., more dollars than ever chasing decreasing goods and services, ZImbabwe-style.

Obama and Congress can increase spending at a high percentage of GDP and even promise *tax cuts* knowing that most will pay very real taxes in the form of inflation down the road. This is the *Mugabe Effect* on a much larger scale.

I have seen my monthly costs increase for many things in the last few months, which leaves me doubting that we are in a deflationary environment in the U.S.

For these reasons, right now we have the strongest fundamental I have ever seen for owning precious metals. A significant number of U.S. citizens buying and holding gold will destroy the government's scheme, which is why there is a viable scenario in which gold ownership could be outlawed in the U.S. Not likely, but a scenario.

(I'm now curious, is gold ownership legal in Zimbabwe?)

Disclosure: I have a very small position in GLD and SLV (in an IRA), but I believe that owning the physical gold makes better sense.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123088-the-benefits-of-this-recession?source=feed#comment-408393 408393

On Feb 27 12:57 PM User 270430 wrote:

> Ok, who designed this economic model which requires insanity followed
> by collapse? I
>
> t's the 21st century, surely we can sit down and come up with a better
> model that does not threaten Western Civilization every couple of
> generations.
>
> I mean think about WWI, WWII, and god forbid, if the current "recession"
> leads to WWIII... You get the picture? Pure lunacy, in my opinion.
>
> ]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 17:18:26 -0500

On Feb 27 12:57 PM User 270430 wrote:

> Ok, who designed this economic model which requires insanity followed
> by collapse? I
>
> t's the 21st century, surely we can sit down and come up with a better
> model that does not threaten Western Civilization every couple of
> generations.
>
> I mean think about WWI, WWII, and god forbid, if the current "recession"
> leads to WWIII... You get the picture? Pure lunacy, in my opinion.
>
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113760-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-405321 405321

On Feb 26 09:08 AM AndrewBaker wrote:

> Right now volatility is so high and market movements so unpredicable,
> that long short pairs trading is one of the few ways to make money.
> Taking a one-way position in financial, for example, is a big gamble
> right now. I'm taking positions long and short, and selling the first
> one to show a reasonable profit, then waiting for the other to come
> back and go into profit. Using 2x and 3x leverage ups the anti and
> is hairy, but I need the adrenaline!]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 23:24:44 -0500

On Feb 26 09:08 AM AndrewBaker wrote:

> Right now volatility is so high and market movements so unpredicable,
> that long short pairs trading is one of the few ways to make money.
> Taking a one-way position in financial, for example, is a big gamble
> right now. I'm taking positions long and short, and selling the first
> one to show a reasonable profit, then waiting for the other to come
> back and go into profit. Using 2x and 3x leverage ups the anti and
> is hairy, but I need the adrenaline!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-399200 399200 Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:01:00 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-399197 399197 Spare cash has become an oxymoron.

On Feb 22 01:33 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:

> I don't honestly know what to make of this. If I had a bit of spare
> cash though, I'd probably buy a few hundred BAC shares though, just
> to be in on the joke either way.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 18:58:45 -0500 Spare cash has become an oxymoron.

On Feb 22 01:33 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:

> I don't honestly know what to make of this. If I had a bit of spare
> cash though, I'd probably buy a few hundred BAC shares though, just
> to be in on the joke either way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-399196 399196 Spare cash has become an oxymoron.

On Feb 22 01:33 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:

> I don't honestly know what to make of this. If I had a bit of spare
> cash though, I'd probably buy a few hundred BAC shares though, just
> to be in on the joke either way.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 18:58:32 -0500 Spare cash has become an oxymoron.

On Feb 22 01:33 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:

> I don't honestly know what to make of this. If I had a bit of spare
> cash though, I'd probably buy a few hundred BAC shares though, just
> to be in on the joke either way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-399195 399195 Spare cash has become an oxymoron.

On Feb 22 01:33 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:

> I don't honestly know what to make of this. If I had a bit of spare
> cash though, I'd probably buy a few hundred BAC shares though, just
> to be in on the joke either way.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 18:58:32 -0500 Spare cash has become an oxymoron.

On Feb 22 01:33 PM Roman_Fiddler wrote:

> I don't honestly know what to make of this. If I had a bit of spare
> cash though, I'd probably buy a few hundred BAC shares though, just
> to be in on the joke either way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121938-richard-russell-bear-market-remains-in-force?source=feed#comment-399181 399181
Why would the government ban 'paper gold' (gold futures) ownership? I don't see why this would happen or how it would benefit the government.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 18:44:21 -0500
Why would the government ban 'paper gold' (gold futures) ownership? I don't see why this would happen or how it would benefit the government.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121843-sentiment-overview-pessimists-increase-by-18?source=feed#comment-398258 398258
I have to totally disagree.

Sell what you have left during the next bear market rally and invest what's left in a precious metals ETF or physical gold and silver coins. Or at least hold onto the cash until inflation starts its inevitable ramp up and then find a way to protect its value. That is, if its not too late.

Speaking of ramp-ups, check out GOE daily! Is this a harbinger of the infaltion to come?


On Feb 21 06:18 PM Herbert Hoover wrote:

> There's no reason to sell now. You may as well just sit there and
> watch it run its course.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 01:00:56 -0500
I have to totally disagree.

Sell what you have left during the next bear market rally and invest what's left in a precious metals ETF or physical gold and silver coins. Or at least hold onto the cash until inflation starts its inevitable ramp up and then find a way to protect its value. That is, if its not too late.

Speaking of ramp-ups, check out GOE daily! Is this a harbinger of the infaltion to come?


On Feb 21 06:18 PM Herbert Hoover wrote:

> There's no reason to sell now. You may as well just sit there and
> watch it run its course.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121843-sentiment-overview-pessimists-increase-by-18?source=feed#comment-398257 398257
He had a stroke and died in December of that year. The following month his wife called Schwab repeatedly and tried to get them to sell the stocks. Scwab would not sell them because the stocks were not in her name.

The crash came in March 2001, and again last year. She still owns those stocks but they are worth only a small fraction of what they paid for them 9 years ago, and of course they are still going down. The tech stocks fell 89% in 2001 and they are now back below those levels. Like many of you I think the blue chips have alot further to fall in the weeks and months to come, since they are only down about 50% from the 2007 peak.

This is just a lesson for those of you who don't think it will happen to you. In the midst of this market carnage, you need to have a well thought out exit strategy.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 00:51:50 -0500
He had a stroke and died in December of that year. The following month his wife called Schwab repeatedly and tried to get them to sell the stocks. Scwab would not sell them because the stocks were not in her name.

The crash came in March 2001, and again last year. She still owns those stocks but they are worth only a small fraction of what they paid for them 9 years ago, and of course they are still going down. The tech stocks fell 89% in 2001 and they are now back below those levels. Like many of you I think the blue chips have alot further to fall in the weeks and months to come, since they are only down about 50% from the 2007 peak.

This is just a lesson for those of you who don't think it will happen to you. In the midst of this market carnage, you need to have a well thought out exit strategy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/18233?source=feed#comment-397796 397796
I pray that large U.S. cities will not descend into lawlessness.]]> Sat, 21 Feb 2009 12:40:20 -0500
I pray that large U.S. cities will not descend into lawlessness.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-397274 397274
Do you not know how ridiculous this article appears to financially responsible, prudent persons?]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 19:41:14 -0500
Do you not know how ridiculous this article appears to financially responsible, prudent persons?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121747-the-sound-and-the-fury-in-the-markets?source=feed#comment-397253 397253 Fri, 20 Feb 2009 19:11:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121747-the-sound-and-the-fury-in-the-markets?source=feed#comment-397250 397250

On Feb 20 10:53 AM ROLEXDAYTONA wrote:

> The hedge funds are liquidating, even the biggest ones, it will go
> on and on and on till 90% of hedge funds will be gone.
> There is no place for gambling, there is no money available to a
> hedgies from investment banks, theres is no investment banks either
> left, investors requests for money back will make this industry look
> like Jurrasic Park in few years, the scam is the word of the day,
> nobody knows what a portfolio is worth, people panic, who cares about
> some graphs, there is no prove for nothing, portfolios that looked
> 20% up turned to be a black holes.
> The hedge funds as an industry are dead, this is history you are
> witnessing today.]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 19:08:24 -0500

On Feb 20 10:53 AM ROLEXDAYTONA wrote:

> The hedge funds are liquidating, even the biggest ones, it will go
> on and on and on till 90% of hedge funds will be gone.
> There is no place for gambling, there is no money available to a
> hedgies from investment banks, theres is no investment banks either
> left, investors requests for money back will make this industry look
> like Jurrasic Park in few years, the scam is the word of the day,
> nobody knows what a portfolio is worth, people panic, who cares about
> some graphs, there is no prove for nothing, portfolios that looked
> 20% up turned to be a black holes.
> The hedge funds as an industry are dead, this is history you are
> witnessing today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121556-the-ecology-of-investment-strategies?source=feed#comment-396002 396002 Thu, 19 Feb 2009 23:17:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121250-gold-the-only-remaining-bubble?source=feed#comment-394441 394441
every article about the government spending trillions it does not currently have to bail out the insovent banks, homeowners, and automakers makes me want to get rid of the paper money and buy gold and silver.

It looks like alot of others feel the same way... ]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 22:38:24 -0500
every article about the government spending trillions it does not currently have to bail out the insovent banks, homeowners, and automakers makes me want to get rid of the paper money and buy gold and silver.

It looks like alot of others feel the same way... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121238-chrysler-held-hostage-by-cerberus?source=feed#comment-394436 394436
every article about the government spending trillions it does not currently have to bail out the insovent banks, homeowners, and automakers makes me want to get rid of the paper money and buy gold and silver.

It looks like alot of others feel the same way...]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 22:30:41 -0500
every article about the government spending trillions it does not currently have to bail out the insovent banks, homeowners, and automakers makes me want to get rid of the paper money and buy gold and silver.

It looks like alot of others feel the same way...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119523-wednesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-394393 394393
1. There is no evidence in these charts that more or less government either caused or did not cause these problems.

2. Capitalism may be a "religion" to a very few persons who adore it - though I doubt even that - but to the vast majority capitalism is a broad term that generally describes an economic system they participate in, not a "religion."

3. Though unbridled greed is a vice, the real problems appear to be a broad societal moral failure based on the widespread belief that there is no absolute truth. Therefore, it's OK to lie, cheat, and steal from folks you don't know as long as you "get away with it" (i.e., someone else you don't know is always there to steal from), and everyone agrees with you to call it The Right To Choose instead of Murder. And now we can do all of these things with the full approval and participation of our new *government.*

4. Regarding my last point, why is this nation so surprised that everyone will go down (on his knees) in this Great Depression? Do we really expect to continue to be blessed?

On Feb 18 07:10 AM bosun.j wrote:

> Almost 30 years of Ronnie Ray Gun tinkle down economics coupled with
> the wrongheaded belief that government is the problem have brought
> the worlds economies to bankruptcy. Prima facie evidence that less
> government, less regulation and unbridled greed comprise a failed
> religion many refer to as capitalism.]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 21:31:59 -0500
1. There is no evidence in these charts that more or less government either caused or did not cause these problems.

2. Capitalism may be a "religion" to a very few persons who adore it - though I doubt even that - but to the vast majority capitalism is a broad term that generally describes an economic system they participate in, not a "religion."

3. Though unbridled greed is a vice, the real problems appear to be a broad societal moral failure based on the widespread belief that there is no absolute truth. Therefore, it's OK to lie, cheat, and steal from folks you don't know as long as you "get away with it" (i.e., someone else you don't know is always there to steal from), and everyone agrees with you to call it The Right To Choose instead of Murder. And now we can do all of these things with the full approval and participation of our new *government.*

4. Regarding my last point, why is this nation so surprised that everyone will go down (on his knees) in this Great Depression? Do we really expect to continue to be blessed?

On Feb 18 07:10 AM bosun.j wrote:

> Almost 30 years of Ronnie Ray Gun tinkle down economics coupled with
> the wrongheaded belief that government is the problem have brought
> the worlds economies to bankruptcy. Prima facie evidence that less
> government, less regulation and unbridled greed comprise a failed
> religion many refer to as capitalism.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119523-wednesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-394358 394358 Wed, 18 Feb 2009 20:59:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120151-america-s-banks-are-they-really-insolvent?source=feed#comment-387813 387813
Here is something interesting: I was on a street in Raleigh the other day and I counted 10 different banks in a 3-block stretch. 10! Most were in new buildings; some had just opened their doors.

The American people have all watched the absolutely reprehensible behavior of the banks over the past 1.5 years and the banks have shown their "true colors" to us all.

Here is a trend: Alot of the young people are starting to develop a NEW monetary system that freezes out banks because they realize so many banks are run by greedy crooks - the banks are destroying individuals and our country. They also realize the effect of "interest: (usury) on money supply growth is ruining the world's economy. Who can afford to pay back the ever-expanding interest? No-one.

Those young people are SMART.

Here is another trend I've recently noticed: More and more people are storing their money at home and are paying their bills with cash and money orders.

My prediction, therefore, is that most banks will disappear. Avoid loans, credit, banks, crooks, shills and the Wall St. thieves at every opportunity.

Minimize your business with banks; avoid them if possible. Our economy must go back to conducting business with cash and savings, NOT credit and loans, and it will.]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 17:08:22 -0500
Here is something interesting: I was on a street in Raleigh the other day and I counted 10 different banks in a 3-block stretch. 10! Most were in new buildings; some had just opened their doors.

The American people have all watched the absolutely reprehensible behavior of the banks over the past 1.5 years and the banks have shown their "true colors" to us all.

Here is a trend: Alot of the young people are starting to develop a NEW monetary system that freezes out banks because they realize so many banks are run by greedy crooks - the banks are destroying individuals and our country. They also realize the effect of "interest: (usury) on money supply growth is ruining the world's economy. Who can afford to pay back the ever-expanding interest? No-one.

Those young people are SMART.

Here is another trend I've recently noticed: More and more people are storing their money at home and are paying their bills with cash and money orders.

My prediction, therefore, is that most banks will disappear. Avoid loans, credit, banks, crooks, shills and the Wall St. thieves at every opportunity.

Minimize your business with banks; avoid them if possible. Our economy must go back to conducting business with cash and savings, NOT credit and loans, and it will.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117890-income-in-a-zero-rate-world?source=feed#comment-373322 373322
"In the ‘worst’ case, the stock price rises to the point where the option holder will exercise and Joe will have to sell his $500 shares at $35/share."

No, no, NO.

"In the ‘worst’ case, the stock price falls to the point where it is worth pennies on the dollar, and, not having developed an exit strategy that allows you to consistently make money using covered calls, you lose most of your initial investment."]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 10:53:33 -0500
"In the ‘worst’ case, the stock price rises to the point where the option holder will exercise and Joe will have to sell his $500 shares at $35/share."

No, no, NO.

"In the ‘worst’ case, the stock price falls to the point where it is worth pennies on the dollar, and, not having developed an exit strategy that allows you to consistently make money using covered calls, you lose most of your initial investment."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/16601?source=feed#comment-371519 371519
Instead we’ll be killed with hyperinflation.

Start buying commodities.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:53:06 -0500
Instead we’ll be killed with hyperinflation.

Start buying commodities.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116336-dennis-gartman-on-gold-oil-government-and-the-economy?source=feed#comment-367828 367828
But, it's quite structurally different this time. All of the available data says so...]]> Tue, 27 Jan 2009 13:35:11 -0500
But, it's quite structurally different this time. All of the available data says so...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114411-2008s-etf-dogs-could-be-2009s-opportunities?source=feed#comment-367101 367101 Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:05:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114411-2008s-etf-dogs-could-be-2009s-opportunities?source=feed#comment-367095 367095
SPY: 10
IWM: 12
DIA: 10
QQQQ: 13

Let's see where they are in 2 weeks; if substantially higher it will indicate a reversion to the mean is likely, which could mean another leg down in stock prices is coming.]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:01:44 -0500
SPY: 10
IWM: 12
DIA: 10
QQQQ: 13

Let's see where they are in 2 weeks; if substantially higher it will indicate a reversion to the mean is likely, which could mean another leg down in stock prices is coming.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116435-the-hidden-cost-in-inverse-etfs?source=feed#comment-367069 367069
On the other hand, the double and triples seem to be a daytrade's dream, but I have nver gone there.]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 21:33:11 -0500
On the other hand, the double and triples seem to be a daytrade's dream, but I have nver gone there.]]>