a believer

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Too risky. Have you backtested? Long+short, over time, is a losers bet with most ETFs.


On Feb 26 09:08 AM AndrewBaker wrote:

> Right now volatility is so high and market movements so unpredicable,
> that long short pairs trading is one of the few ways to make money.
> Taking a one-way position in financial, for example, is a big gamble
> right now. I'm taking positions long and short, and selling the first
> one to show a reasonable profit, then waiting for the other to come
> back and go into profit. Using 2x and 3x leverage ups the anti and
> is hairy, but I need the adrenaline!

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

bosun j.

1. There is no evidence in these charts that more or less government either caused or did not cause these problems.

2. Capitalism may be a "religion" to a very few persons who adore it - though I doubt even that - but to the vast majority capitalism is a broad term that generally describes an economic system they participate in, not a "religion."

3. Though unbridled greed is a vice, the real problems appear to be a broad societal moral failure based on the widespread belief that there is no absolute truth. Therefore, it's OK to lie, cheat, and steal from folks you don't know as long as you "get away with it" (i.e., someone else you don't know is always there to steal from), and everyone agrees with you to call it The Right To Choose instead of Murder. And now we can do all of these things with the full approval and participation of our new *government.*

4. Regarding my last point, why is this nation so surprised that everyone will go down (on his knees) in this Great Depression? Do we really expect to continue to be blessed?

On Feb 18 07:10 AM bosun.j wrote:

> Almost 30 years of Ronnie Ray Gun tinkle down economics coupled with
> the wrongheaded belief that government is the problem have brought
> the worlds economies to bankruptcy. Prima facie evidence that less
> government, less regulation and unbridled greed comprise a failed
> religion many refer to as capitalism.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

In summary, nearly everything was leg-down this week/month, with precious metals about the only thing (aside from the dollar) moving to the upside.

Dennis Gartman on Gold, Oil, Government and the Economy

Dennis has the eternal optimism of every Stock Mutual Fund Manager: "It's not different this time."

But, it's quite structurally different this time. All of the available data says so...

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

...and because debt has suddenly imploded, the U.S. has quickly gone from a 'rich' country to a poor one, in which most people can afford only the necessities of life (or less) and young people must continue to live with their parents.

This is happening in our family and many families I know.

We have turned away from the love letter God wrote to us in His Holy Word, the Bible, we continue to allow the murder of millions of our unborn, we put our trust in political officials and our wealth, we allow same sex unions and marriages...

And we expect to be blessed with wealth as a nation? Who do we think we are kidding?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

These graphs indicate one thing strongly: Investors no longer trust financial data because it is now so opaque (with so many CDOs, CDS and derivative WMDs - and no honest accounting), thus investors know stock and commodities values need to be different, but noone knows how much lower or higher.

Keep your assets in cash, unless you are a successful day trader.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I'm 100% invested in dollars, I guess you could say I'm 'long $USD.'

I like that $USD chart.

User 258021, since no back-tested data set could include the price movements we've seen, trading leveraged long ETFs is way too risky in this non-trending environment (unless you are day-trading).