a believer

Gold Bugs vs. Gold Haters

Gold Barron:

You are exactly right in your last point, which is that inflation is not on the minds of most people - few that I have recently talked to are concerned about it. But inflation is the way that the government will be able to impose a huge tax increase without calling it a *tax increase*. A significant tax increase is a political impossibility.

The government is absolutely committed to re-inflating the collapsing debt bubble with...cash in the form of government debt, i.e., more dollars than ever chasing decreasing goods and services, ZImbabwe-style.

Obama and Congress can increase spending at a high percentage of GDP and even promise *tax cuts* knowing that most will pay very real taxes in the form of inflation down the road. This is the *Mugabe Effect* on a much larger scale.

I have seen my monthly costs increase for many things in the last few months, which leaves me doubting that we are in a deflationary environment in the U.S.

For these reasons, right now we have the strongest fundamental I have ever seen for owning precious metals. A significant number of U.S. citizens buying and holding gold will destroy the government's scheme, which is why there is a viable scenario in which gold ownership could be outlawed in the U.S. Not likely, but a scenario.

(I'm now curious, is gold ownership legal in Zimbabwe?)

Disclosure: I have a very small position in GLD and SLV (in an IRA), but I believe that owning the physical gold makes better sense.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Too risky. Have you backtested? Long+short, over time, is a losers bet with most ETFs.


On Feb 26 09:08 AM AndrewBaker wrote:

> Right now volatility is so high and market movements so unpredicable,
> that long short pairs trading is one of the few ways to make money.
> Taking a one-way position in financial, for example, is a big gamble
> right now. I'm taking positions long and short, and selling the first
> one to show a reasonable profit, then waiting for the other to come
> back and go into profit. Using 2x and 3x leverage ups the anti and
> is hairy, but I need the adrenaline!

Richard Russell: Bear Market Remains in Force

Eventually the only option the US government has is to print its way out and devalue the dollar, thereby decreasing the national debt which will be in relatively fixed dollars. This argues well for gold and commodities ownership long term. In the short term there will be bear market rallies.

Why would the government ban 'paper gold' (gold futures) ownership? I don't see why this would happen or how it would benefit the government.

Gold: The Only Remaining Bubble?

I'm not a gold bug, but...

every article about the government spending trillions it does not currently have to bail out the insovent banks, homeowners, and automakers makes me want to get rid of the paper money and buy gold and silver.

It looks like alot of others feel the same way...

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

bosun j.

1. There is no evidence in these charts that more or less government either caused or did not cause these problems.

2. Capitalism may be a "religion" to a very few persons who adore it - though I doubt even that - but to the vast majority capitalism is a broad term that generally describes an economic system they participate in, not a "religion."

3. Though unbridled greed is a vice, the real problems appear to be a broad societal moral failure based on the widespread belief that there is no absolute truth. Therefore, it's OK to lie, cheat, and steal from folks you don't know as long as you "get away with it" (i.e., someone else you don't know is always there to steal from), and everyone agrees with you to call it The Right To Choose instead of Murder. And now we can do all of these things with the full approval and participation of our new *government.*

4. Regarding my last point, why is this nation so surprised that everyone will go down (on his knees) in this Great Depression? Do we really expect to continue to be blessed?

On Feb 18 07:10 AM bosun.j wrote:

> Almost 30 years of Ronnie Ray Gun tinkle down economics coupled with
> the wrongheaded belief that government is the problem have brought
> the worlds economies to bankruptcy. Prima facie evidence that less
> government, less regulation and unbridled greed comprise a failed
> religion many refer to as capitalism.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

In summary, nearly everything was leg-down this week/month, with precious metals about the only thing (aside from the dollar) moving to the upside.

Dennis Gartman on Gold, Oil, Government and the Economy

Dennis has the eternal optimism of every Stock Mutual Fund Manager: "It's not different this time."

But, it's quite structurally different this time. All of the available data says so...

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Simply the best Seeking Alpha has to offer by a country mile.

Most of the rest is poorly or non-researched blah blah blah.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

...and because debt has suddenly imploded, the U.S. has quickly gone from a 'rich' country to a poor one, in which most people can afford only the necessities of life (or less) and young people must continue to live with their parents.

This is happening in our family and many families I know.

We have turned away from the love letter God wrote to us in His Holy Word, the Bible, we continue to allow the murder of millions of our unborn, we put our trust in political officials and our wealth, we allow same sex unions and marriages...

And we expect to be blessed with wealth as a nation? Who do we think we are kidding?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

These graphs indicate one thing strongly: Investors no longer trust financial data because it is now so opaque (with so many CDOs, CDS and derivative WMDs - and no honest accounting), thus investors know stock and commodities values need to be different, but noone knows how much lower or higher.

Keep your assets in cash, unless you are a successful day trader.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I'm 100% invested in dollars, I guess you could say I'm 'long $USD.'

I like that $USD chart.

User 258021, since no back-tested data set could include the price movements we've seen, trading leveraged long ETFs is way too risky in this non-trending environment (unless you are day-trading).

Survival of the Longest

Only gold can save us now? I doubt it. You are assuming large numbers of people will start to value good as a medium of exchange, which to me is unlikely.

No, what will 'save us now' is providing REAL goods and services that other people want and need.

Right now, I would take Leveraged Debt off that list.

Options Trader: Outlook for Turnaround Tuesday

I smell Zimbabwe the world over...

Next up - hyperinflation!!

No matter what 'the collective' does, it will not be able resurrect the House of Cards called the Leveraged Debt Industry because that industry has been permanently destroyed. Who in their right mind would ever buy another CDMO?

That part of our economy - which grew way too big by tearing the ARMs of off poor people - is gone.