Agcapita

Defining Alternative Asset Classes

The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research by our firm, Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership (farmlandinvestmentpart..., Calgary, Canada based agriculture private equity firm) shows investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics. During the last commodity bull market & high inflation period in the 1970’s, equities materially underperformed farmland.
- Western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% total return and 176% in inflation adjusted terms);
- Cash held in a money market account barely kept ahead of inflation (6% inflation adjusted return); and the
- S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year (a loss of almost 50% in inflation in adjusted terms)

We believe the world is still in the early stages of this current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further increases:
- Corn is US$ 4/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
- Wheat is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
- Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

Agcapita allows farmland investors to cost effectively allocate a portion of their portfolios to hard assets in the form of Canadian farmland via its professionally managed Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership. Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership is the third in a family of private equity funds which has grown to almost $100 million in assets under management.

Agcapita’s investment team has over 40 years private equity and fund management experience and over $1 billion in total career transactions and previously managed a group of emerging market funds with almost C$500 million in assets for one of the largest banks in Europe.

Agcapita’s advisory Board is composed of accomplished agriculture entrepreneurs and academics, high profile political figures and investment experts including the former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rt. Hon. Ken Clarke and Jim Rogers, co-founder of Quantum Fund. Our members bring a deep knowledge of the factors driving agriculture and farmland values – including rapidly growing emerging economy food demand and inflation.

Farm Real Estate Sector Headed into a Decline?

Farmland where is the key question? Canadian farmland is still the cheapest in the world by a large margin.

The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research by our firm, Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership (farmlandinvestmentpart..., Calgary, Canada based agriculture private equity firm) shows investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics. During the last commodity bull market & high inflation period in the 1970’s, equities materially underperformed farmland.
- Western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% total return and 176% in inflation adjusted terms);
- Cash held in a money market account barely kept ahead of inflation (6% inflation adjusted return); and the
- S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year (a loss of almost 50% in inflation in adjusted terms)

We believe the world is still in the early stages of this current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further increases:
- Corn is US$ 4/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
- Wheat is US$ 6/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
- Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

Another interesting metric is the long-term average ratio of the Commodities Research Bureau Index versus the S&P 500 which is currently around 1.5 times. Simplistically, this ratio indicates how much S&P 500 stock you can buy with a fixed basket of commodities. Some important points:
- During the commodity bull market of the 1970s, the ratio was consistently higher than 2 times for over 10 years – it peaked at almost 4 times.
- The ratio is currently at around 0.5 times - significantly below the 1.5 times long-term average, just slightly above the 0.15 all time low reached in 1999/2000 and still very far below the almost 4 times multiple reached in the last commodity bull market. We still appear to be at an all time low relative valuation between “hard assets" versus "stocks.”
- If history is a guide, the ratio of hard assets to stocks will have moved much higher before this commodity bull market is over.
- How? Stocks will continue to fall and/or commodities will continue to climb – most likely a serious combination of both as investors, fearing inflation, rotate out of stocks into commodities – the cycle of “inflation, rotation, hard assets”.

Agcapita allows farmland investors to cost effectively allocate a portion of their portfolios to hard assets in the form of Canadian farmland via its professionally managed Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership. Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership is the third in a family of private equity funds which has grown to almost $100 million in assets under management.

Agcapita’s investment team has over 40 years private equity and fund management experience and over $1 billion in total career transactions and previously managed a group of emerging market funds with almost C$500 million in assets for one of the largest banks in Europe.

Agcapita’s advisory Board is composed of accomplished agriculture entrepreneurs and academics, high profile political figures and investment experts including the former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rt. Hon. Ken Clarke and Jim Rogers, co-founder of Quantum Fund. Our members bring a deep knowledge of the factors driving agriculture and farmland values – including rapidly growing emerging economy food demand and inflation.

Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money?

Jim Rogers is bullish on western Canadian farmland. At the recent annual CFA awards dinner in Toronto he told the assembled crowd of fund managers and investment bankers to "sell their houses, move to Saskatchewan, buy a tractor and some land and start farming". How will deflation occur when the money supply does not stop growing? Time to rotate into inflation hedging, hard asset investments like farmland - often described as "gold with a yield".

Alternative Views: Bail with Bigger Buckets, or Let More Ships Sink

Jim Rogers says the bail-outs being conducted by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are "unleashing an inflationary holocaust’ on us all. The US runs massive current and fiscal account deficits; therefore, the trillions of dollars involved in the bail-outs will inevitably be printed as the only realistic way to pay for them is via inflation. To put $3 trillion into perspective, it took the US over 200 years to reach approximately $10 trillion in money supply and no more than 12 weeks to commit to another $3 trillion and counting.

Jim Rogers continues to advocate investments in agriculture commodities and farmland in selected markets – including Canada.

Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money?

One asset that Jim Rogers is bullish on is the ag commodity space and farmland. There is still a supply/demand inbalance in ag commodities - closing stocks are expected to fall again this year (source: farmlandinvestmentpart...)

Jim was recently quoted at the annual CFA dinner in Toronto as suggesting to the assembled investment bankers that they “sell their houses in the city, move to Saskatchewan, buy tractors and farmland and start farming.” Jim feels that western Canada is now one of the best places in the world to invest and is well positioned to weather any problems in the global markets.

The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore

The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research by our firm, Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership (Calgary, Canada based agriculture private equity firm – farmlandinvestmentpart...) shows investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics. During the last commodity bull market & high inflation period in the 1970’s, equities materially underperformed farmland.
- Western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% total return and 176% in inflation adjusted terms);
- Cash held in a money market account barely kept ahead of inflation (6% inflation adjusted return); and the
- S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year (a loss of almost 50% in inflation in adjusted terms)

We believe the world is still in the early stages of this current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further increases:
- Corn is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
- Wheat is US$ 7/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
- Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

Another interesting metric is the long-term average ratio of the Commodities Research Bureau Index versus the S&P 500 which is currently around 1.5 times. Simplistically, this ratio indicates how much S&P 500 stock you can buy with a fixed basket of commodities. Some important points:
- During the commodity bull market of the 1970s, the ratio was consistently higher than 2 times for over 10 years – it peaked at almost 4 times.
- The ratio is currently at around 0.5 times - significantly below the 1.5 times long-term average, just slightly above the 0.15 all time low reached in 1999/2000 and still very far below the almost 4 times multiple reached in the last commodity bull market. We still appear to be at an all time low relative valuation between “hard assets" versus "stocks.”
- If history is a guide, the ratio of hard assets to stocks will have moved much higher before this commodity bull market is over.
- How? Stocks will continue to fall and/or commodities will continue to climb – most likely a serious combination of both as investors, fearing inflation, rotate out of stocks into commodities – the cycle of “inflation, rotation, hard assets”.
Agcapita is a Calgary based, agriculture private equity firm that allows investors to cost effectively allocate a portion of their portfolios to hard assets in the form of Canadian farmland via its professionally managed Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership. Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership is the third in a family of private equity funds which has grown to almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita’s investment team has over 40 years private equity and fund management experience and over $1 billion in total career transactions and previously managed a group of emerging market funds with almost C$500 million in assets for one of the largest banks in Europe.

What To Do in a Rebuilding Year

The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research by our firm, Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership (Calgary, Canada based agriculture private equity firm – farmlandinvestmentpart...) shows investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics. During the last commodity bull market & high inflation period in the 1970’s, equities materially underperformed farmland.
- Western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% total return and 176% in inflation adjusted terms);
- Cash held in a money market account barely kept ahead of inflation (6% inflation adjusted return); and the
- S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year (a loss of almost 50% in inflation in adjusted terms)

We believe the world is still in the early stages of this current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further increases:
- Corn is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
- Wheat is US$ 7/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
- Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

Another interesting metric is the long-term average ratio of the Commodities Research Bureau Index versus the S&P 500 which is currently around 1.5 times. Simplistically, this ratio indicates how much S&P 500 stock you can buy with a fixed basket of commodities. Some important points:
• During the commodity bull market of the 1970s, the ratio was consistently higher than 2 times for over 10 years – it peaked at almost 4 times.
• The ratio is currently at around 0.5 times - significantly below the 1.5 times long-term average, just slightly above the 0.15 all time low reached in 1999/2000 and still very far below the almost 4 times multiple reached in the last commodity bull market. We still appear to be at an all time low relative valuation between “hard assets" versus "stocks.”
• If history is a guide, the ratio of hard assets to stocks will have moved much higher before this commodity bull market is over.
• How? Stocks will continue to fall and/or commodities will continue to climb – most likely a serious combination of both as investors, fearing inflation, rotate out of stocks into commodities – the cycle of “inflation, rotation, hard assets”.
Agcapita is a Calgary based, agriculture private equity firm that allows investors to cost effectively allocate a portion of their portfolios to hard assets in the form of Canadian farmland via its professionally managed Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership. Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership is the third in a family of private equity funds which has grown to almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita’s investment team has over 40 years private equity and fund management experience and over $1 billion in total career transactions and previously managed a group of emerging market funds with almost C$500 million in assets for one of the largest banks in Europe.

Fed's Yellen: Interest Rates Are Not 'Excessively Stimulatory'

If you use ShadowStats adjusted CPI number real interest rates are around negative 11%. How does this not qualify as "stimulatory"? It portends substanital inflation in the future and a necessary rotation into hard assets.

Steel, Coal and Agriculture Plays Turning Over

On the issue of rotation we need to take a longer view. The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research by Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership (Calgary based agriculture private equity firm) shows investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics.

During the last commodity bull market & high inflation period in the 1970’s, equities materially underperformed farmland. Western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% total return and 176% in inflation adjusted terms), cash held in a money market account barely kept ahead of inflation (6% inflation adjusted return) and the S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year (a loss of almost 50% in inflation in adjusted terms)

I believe the world is still in the early stages of this current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further increases:
 Corn is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
 Wheat is US$ 7/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
 Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

Potash One Will Be Top Performer in Agriculture Bull Market

The author highlights a fundamental issue for future farm profitability and land values is whether demand for food or demand for energy (fertlisers) is more inelastic. The article and recent farm income data supports the intuitive conclusion that food demand is much more inelastic than fertilizer demand. If this continues, farm profitability to continue to expand and drive land values with it.

On a more general note, the equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research by our firm, Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership (Calgary based agriculture private equity firm) shows investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics.

During the last commodity bull market & high inflation period in the 1970’s, equities materially underperformed farmland. Western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% total return and 176% in inflation adjusted terms), cash held in a money market account barely kept ahead of inflation (6% inflation adjusted return) and the S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year (a loss of almost 50% in inflation in adjusted terms)

Like the author, I believe the world is still in the early stages of this current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further increases:
 Corn is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
 Wheat is US$ 7/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
 Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

The Global Food Crisis and Gold’s Valuable Role

The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research by our firm, Agcapita Partners (Calgary, Canada, based farmland private equity firm) shows investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics.

During the last commodity bull market & high inflation period in the 1970’s, equities materially underperformed farmland. Western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% total return and 176% in inflation adjusted terms), cash held in a money market account barely kept ahead of inflation (6% inflation adjusted return) and the S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year (a loss of almost 50% in inflation in adjusted terms)

We believe the world is still in the early stages of this current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further increases:
 Corn is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
 Wheat is US$ 7/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
 Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

Cresud Inc: Argentine Farmland Anyone?

The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research by our firm, Agcapita Partners LP (Calgary, Canada private equity firm) shows investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics.

During the last commodity bull market & high inflation period in the 1970’s, equities materially underperformed farmland. Western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% total return and 176% in inflation adjusted terms), cash held in a money market account barely kept ahead of inflation (6% inflation adjusted return) and the S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year (a loss of almost 50% in inflation in adjusted terms)

We believe the world is still in the early stages of this current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further increases:
 Corn is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
 Wheat is US$ 7/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
 Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

Commodities Boom and Rotation

The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research from Agcapita Partners LP (Calgary Canada private equity firm) shows that investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics.

During the last commodity bull market/high inflation period in the 1970s equities materially underperformed farmland. The S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year nominal (negative 50% in inflation adjusted terms), funds in a money market account returned 6% in inflation adjusted terms (barely staying ahead of inflation over 10 years) while western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% nominal return, 176% in inflation adjusted terms).

The world is still in the early stages of the current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further price increases:
 Corn is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
 Wheat is US$ 7/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
 Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981

Diversification Is Your Only Friend

Difficult to obtain diversification in a market with high postive correlations between virtually all asset classes. This is a very unusual state of affairs. There are very few uncorrelated assets classes accessible to the average investor. For example, timberland and farmland have small negative correlations to stocks and fairly high correlations to inflation - might be something to consider going forward in a market with a federal government dedicated to inflating the currency away. The challenge becomes how to cost effectively deploy capital in these areas.

Stagflation or Deflation?

Superb article. I agree wholeheartedly that poltical stability will be a great differentiator in the returns generated by hard asset/commodity investments going forward. Many governments are taking the view that energy and agriculture are strategic industries and acting accordingly. The author is correct that farmland has already moved quite significantly in value in most politically stable regions of the world - with one exception - Canada. The average price of farmland in western Canada is still only $660/acre with the province of Saskatchewan below $400/acre. This is for good quality dryland wheat farming land, world class infrastructure, rule of law and enforeable title. Compare that to $2,400/acre in Argentina with poor infrastructure and massive poltical risk (see recent export tariffs imposed on agricutlural commodities).