dlweld

Economic Outlook, Current Conditions and Investment Strategy

LOL - amusing typo - I'm sure you meant: "The author of this comment is an idiot". Well, better luck next time.


On Nov 09 10:24 AM Rhino wrote:

> The author of this article is an idiot.

The eBay Ad Campaign Has Begun: Will It Help?

eBay seems destined to implode - it was fun until boy wonder took control. Is he an Amazon mole do you suppose?

eBay's site really has ther retro "we've just discovered the internet!" uber-cluttered look that helped sink AOL and stalled YAHOO. Check how uncluttered and professional Google looks.

I started on eBay back in 2000, sold lots of stuff and made good money, but I quit back in May 2008 - constant changes and odd policies simply made it hard enough doing business that I just stopped. Sadly the layering on of even stupider changes has continued - used to be you could find anything on eBay - no longer, little point visiting it now, the interesting sellers have left, and eBay has generated bad will to die for - word of mouth on the street is "avoid eBay" it stinks. I don't think patronizing Ads will help. Too bad, it was unique and fun!

Silver Wheaton: The Safe Alternative to SLV

I like Silver Wheaton a lot as a way to (I hope) profit from the upcoming rise in Silver prices - as I think this rise is currently underway I've chosen to buy the Silver Wheaton warrants - they have 2 of interest. SLW.WT.B - the right to buy the stock at $10 Cdn until Dec 22 2010, and the SLW.WT.U - the right to buy the stock at $20 USD until Sept 05 2013. the B is around $6.00 cdn as I write, if SLW goes to $20 in the next year (seems a shoe-in) then the warrants will be $10 at a mimimum. Right now the B is tracking the stock about dollar for dollar - just double the leverage.

What Can eBay Do to Close Its Amazon Gap?

LOL re the code words that bloggers use on eBay's forums to escape eBay's thought police - "the river", "the ranch" - what is Ebay's code? "The dump?"

I used to sell a lot on EBAY and made good money, but I no longer regard it as a viable venue. It's simply no longer a practical place for small sellers, sure, some deals work OK, but you just need one bad buyer to give a strong negative and your business is wrecked and you feel terrible - the selling experience is generally very bad at EBAY. If you're a "liquidation world" with special deals with ebay itself then it seems to work, but not for the great majority of sellers of interesting items - of course, flip side, not much of interest to buy there anymore either.

eBay: Out with the New, In with the Old

EBAY had a core compentency - online auctions - and had a good world-wide monoploy on this money-spinner. A dream combination. Donahue and co. have blown this out of the water - just who are they working for? And they've failed in their rather stupid scheme to make a sows ear out of a silk purse. Now they've got another scheme. Funny really, all they had to do was not do anything much. I see them taking over the flight deck of a cruising 747 as untrained pilots - "we're not going fast enough, what happens when I push this down hard?". I think the ground proximity warning is beeping over at Ebay. Time for a golden parachute or two.

What Are Analysts Saying About eBay's Analyst Day?

Yep, good points on ebay predicting 3 years out quite happily, but no ideas on the next year or so, and analysts' concerns with actual execution. You'd think that good management could have grown the company while transforming it, instead they've managed to build up a negative branding to die for. Folks now, far from being loyal, want ebay to fail - takes real genius to create that.
PAYPAL is the one bright spot in Ebay's self generated panoply of disasters, but I'm pretty sure PAYPAL has done so well because Donahoe and company have been focussing on ruining Ebay - that jobs pretty well completed now, so onto other areas! Great! The black thumbs have arrived - I suspect we'll see a ton of well-meant but misguided decisions on PAYPAL and it'll join EBAY in its dive. No number of colorful PowerPoint ballons will be able to keep it up.

eBay: Where It Stands, Where It Should Be Headed

I'm pretty sure PAYPAL has done so well because Donahoe and company have been focussing on ruining Ebay - that jobs pretty well done now, so onto other areas! Great! The black thumbs have arrived - I suspect we'll see a ton of well-meant but misguided decisions on PAYPAL and it'll join EBAY in its dive.

eBay: Where It Stands, Where It Should Be Headed

Good article, but you state: "The company’s (ebay's) core business has lost significant market share to Amazon (AMZN) and niche ecommerce sites and the share loss is likely to continue for the foreseeable future." not quite right - their core business (auctions) was decimated entirely by their own policies. Amazon wasn't (and still isn't) there. EBAY had the online auction world to itself, their core competency was a world-wide monopoly. So exactly wrong what they've been doing - even MBAs would usually recommend that a company recognize and build on its core competency - ebay had the world by the tail - no competition, people loved it, good prospects of becoming the world's auction house - now, well, EBAY has developed to such a point as to be almost unusable by sellers. With these sellers' departure, many of the cool and expensive items go, the eyeballs go, the advertising revenue goes - and... the company follows. Sure, there's still lots of cash in the till and lots of (tacky) items for sale but the trend is strongly downward. There's been such a negative branding developed, that even if top management did the right thing - and quit - Ebay would be a long time coming back to what it was. If ever. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. All as a result of management initiatives - gad!

Three Value Stocks That Appear Ridiculously Cheap

A couple of things on the valuation of EBAY. Seems they have 7 billion for goodwill on the books - seems a bit tenuous, why not 8 billion, or 6 billion, I mean what's a billion here or there? I suppose that all refers to name recognition, and how people feel when they think of EBAy, but out there in the real world, EBAY has unfortunately built up quite a large "badwill" amount. How does that sit on the books? I'd rate goodwill as close to zero now - making the company worth about 4 billion total.

A good example of how following the usual ratios and figures can be misleading. A "walking around" type analysis - what's actually happening on the ground - can't be beat. In Ebay's case there are lots of astute observations from the front, usually from long time sellers who are saddened and disappointed that EBAY has developed to such a point as to be almost unusable by them. With these sellers' departure, many of the cool and expensive items go, the eyeballs go, the advertising revenue goes - and well, the company follows. Sure, there's still lots of cash in the till and lots of (tacky) items for sale but the trend is strongly downward. There's been such a negative branding developed, that even if top management did the right thing - and quit - Ebay will be a long time coming back to what it was. Sad.

Suggestions for eBay 2.0

Great analysis! I'd suggest presenting the whole package to the guys at GOOGLE - they're a crew that could pull it off. When I think of the huge auction market world wide - Christies, Sotheby's, Bonham's, Waddington's, Barons, all the local auctions, farm auctions - it's a massive and lucrative industry - EBAY had the chance to take it all over - worldwide - they were getting there. But I guess the young MBA's just didn't have much realization about where the real money is, and little experience of the world - anything not new from China is a "flea market" item - gad!

Amazon vs. eBay: Follow Up Q&A

Very puzzling, EBAY seems to be working all-out to drive "eyeballs" away from their site! Certainly if the new chat rooms initiative is taken at face value - the new boards are clunky and difficult to scan, the icons for new topic, watched topics, are now harder to locate, avatars make the pages slower to load, all combined with a frustrating and cumbersome layout to discourage people from participating, plus, soon only ebay related threads will be allowed. Why, EBAY, do you want to discourage folks at your site - advertising dollars are tied to page views and site visits - what are you thinking? Do you hate your customers so much?

On the Heels of eBay's Slide, What News Will Amazon's Earnings Bring?

Seems to me that EBAy has given away the one thing that made their site a magnet - the cool and bizarre things that turn up for sale. That's what made EBAY unique and successful. My usual search used to turn up dozens of items of interest to me - almost nothing now, so little point visiting the site. So, having driven away the small sellers and thus given away their unique advantage over other e-commerce sites - given away the one thing that got the "eyeballs" - they're now trying to compete with all the established thin-margin e-commerce sites - good moves!

On the Heels of eBay's Slide, What News Will Amazon's Earnings Bring?

Seems to me that EBAy has given away the one thing that made their site a magnet - the cool and bizarre things that turned up for sale. That's what made EBAY unique and successful. My usual search used to turn up dozens of items of interest to me - almost nothing now, so little point visiting the site. So, having driven away the small sellers and thus given away their unique advantage over other e-commerce sites - given away the one thing that got the "eyeballs" - they're now trying to compete with all the established thin-margin e-commerce sites - good moves!

eBay Ridiculously Cheap

Amused at fellow expecting EBAY to suddenly turn around - a household word for sure - like mold or slime or garbage - EBAY's turned into the company that folks love to hate - word of mouth built ebay - it'll tear it down too. We'll be seeing greater momentum on the downside - why would anyone go there? Check out the totally negative comments on the blogs - these are not just the whiners - these are real, normal folks who've all had very bad experiences on ebay -

eBay: Getting Something for Nothing

I think maybe such a thing as "bad will" (the opposite of "good will") should be factored in to the ebay valuation - this sentiment is a strong force and ebay has alienated so many of its customers (mostly the sellers) that this should be factored in - I know many folks, including myself, who started out loving ebay - fun, profitable, great! but now will simply never have anything to do with ebay or its egregious paypal - maybe if they changed their names they could get aroung the amazing negative branding they've developed, but otherwise any alternative seems to have big appeal by comparison.