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rephinbar

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  • Ackman's Pictures Tell The Story: Herbalife Oversaturates [View article]
    Seriously??

    Why do 90% of people quit their diets?? their gym??

    !!!
    Dec 1 01:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman's Pictures Tell The Story: Herbalife Oversaturates [View article]
    Matt,

    Here's probably the biggest error in Ackman's short theory. He claims there are little to no "consumer" sales.

    However, the reality (and HLF biggest mistake) is that they call consumers - "distributors". But those "distributors" making up the majority have joined purely to get a bigger discount on the products - intended for self-consumption.

    Another common argument is that these "distributors" have to pay a certain fee to become a eligible for the discount, and hence HLF is essentially incentivizing recruitment.

    But wait a minute, surely you have heard of Costco?! they use the exact some model. To get Costco discounted pricing you have to pay an annual membership fee.

    So HLF biggest issue is mis-labeling these "distributors". They should have given it a different name like "Herbalife VIP Club Member" and the confusion would be gone.

    Furthermore, so many people criticize the MLM model but its for ignorance and nothing more. A "regular", non-mlm company selling products would have to spend a significant amount of their budget on marketing - advertising and promotion. These enormous budgets make the few large media companies very wealthy.

    All that MLM is really about shifting the same budget to individuals in exchange for them promoting the products to their networks of family, friends and beyond. It's based on the notion that word of mouth is the most effective form of marketing. Really simple.

    Now clearly, the model gets abused, but that's no different than any business model. Hence there are some FTC guidelines and boundaries on what's a pyramid scheme.

    One of them is that it's a pyramid scheme is the product has no value and Ackman uses this argument heavily. But there are tens of thousands of people that swear by the benefit from these products and are willing to pay a premium for them. Right there, Ackman has lost his key argument.

    Ackman also claims that new distributors HAVE to invest $3000-$4000 in inventory in order to get bigger discount and bigger commission. First, they don't HAVE to. It's an option and IT'S A STANDARD BUSINESS PRACTICE FOR ANYONE WANTING TO BE A WHOLE SELLER, regardless of industry or business model.

    And no one is holding a gun to their head when they make this investment. And this is investment is no different than any investment you would have to make to start a new business.

    Lastly, most MLM companies operate like HLF, which is where Akcman loses entirely, because if they shutdown HLF, they will HAVE to shutdown NUS, AVON, Mona Vie, SolaVei, And whole slew of other product-based MLM companies. Watch youtube videos from distributors of these companies - they're pretty identical to HLF distrbutors YT videos. You talking about shutting down billions of dollars of commerce in the U.S. and internationally which would have noticeable impact on the overall economy.

    Are you so naive to think the regulators would go as far that?

    Worst case scenario for HLF, is they get fined for not enforcing some of the FTC guidelines well enough and that's that.

    Investors like Soros and Ichan are long because they get the big picture. Ackman is stuck in an egotistical position and grasping at straws to make his argument.

    Hopefully you're open minded enough to "get" some of this education.
    Nov 28 07:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman's Pictures Tell The Story: Herbalife Oversaturates [View article]
    Clearly, the author understand little to nothing about how MLM works.

    "Herbalife's business model/Marketing Plan is not designed to provide support to individual entrepreneurs"

    Should we also blame the U.S. govt that 90% of new small business startups fail?

    Matt, read @msaleeba's post and I suggest you join HLF and educate yourself with the experience.
    Nov 25 03:09 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman Will Swiftly Drop The Firm Hammer Of Justice Against Herbalife On Friday [View article]
    The other statistic shows the 90-95% of new business startups fail as well.

    Most individuals that get sold on the MLM business-from-home model don't have what it takes to be a independent and self-employed so they fail - is it the MLM's company fault?

    No more than it's the government fault with the self-starters in the first stat above.
    Nov 25 02:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman Will Swiftly Drop The Firm Hammer Of Justice Against Herbalife On Friday [View article]
    1. Shorting stock is not evil.
    2. If HLF is a pyramid scheme then just about all other MLMs are too (if you know anything about the industry)
    3. If they shutdown HLF, they will have to shutdown a bunch of other multi billion $ companies - and that's just not going to happen.
    4. Worse case scenario, HLF might get fined.
    5. Ackman is very wealthy, but has made big mistakes before. This is one of them, and he'll still be wealthy after this one.
    6. If you are long, protect yourself with cheap puts
    7. If you are short, protect yourself with some cheap calls
    8. If Ackman doesn't have substance tomorrow, this stock is going to $80+..

    Good luck everyone!
    Nov 21 11:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    Yogi -

    There's a basic rule in commerce that applies here too. Something is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay for it.

    At this point it doesn't seem like there's a real buyer in sight. Which means that high probability that any bid would be south of the current share price. I think the book value is only academic at this point.

    I think you're holding to a long position justified by a theoretical number, not a real market-driven number. In other words - you're an emotional investor.

    Let's keep in touch and compare notes - I'm pretty sure I'll be getting a decent return on my Puts.
    Sep 21 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    Thanks, Michael that makes sense. I was in that position too and decided to just liquidate it on a spike (which happened after the announcement by BBRY to 'seek alternatives').

    So conceptually you're not really long but just locked into a worthless long position. Would that be accurate?
    Sep 21 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    Michael,

    I've read your posts over the past few years and always enjoy them. This is a good one yet it changes nothing fundamental about where the company is at: The End.

    I cannot fathom why you would be STILL long the stock. There's no rabbit in anyone's hat. This is just a very sad story for a once really amazing company and product(s) but they're done.

    It's a real shame and a pity they couldn't turn it around - I think the new BB10 devices are very very good - easily better than the iPhone/iOS.

    It's abundantly clear where BBRY is heading now and this time the analysts (which I doubt in many occasions) are stating the obvious truth: http://bit.ly/18ih4FU

    As a trader, I'm short thru Option Puts.
    Sep 21 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Heins' Mobile End Computing Vision Comes To An End; So Must He [View article]
    Michael,

    Thanks for the article - always like reading your take. I do agree with your points on how poorly the ER call was handled, useless marketing and damage to the brand. I would appreciate if you addressed the following:

    1. Given your take of the ER and TH why are you still long? (I was very bull before the call and results but no longer)

    2. The results came in worse than some of the bleakest analyst numbers. How do you explain that so many (almost all of them) were so grossly out with their estimates and channel checks? Even your channel checks came back positive.

    Thanks and keep writing!
    Jul 1 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The Bear Case, The Bull Case And My Case [View article]
    Many of these so called "analysts" are paid to be biased one way or another so you need to really check track record to see who is credible and who is simply making noise to serve their own firms agenda.
    Jun 27 05:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The Bear Case, The Bull Case And My Case [View article]
    This is true. You can see how some of the bear analysts are already shifting their bear outlook to Q2, conceding that Q1 will beat their estimates.
    Jun 27 04:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The Bear Case, The Bull Case And My Case [View article]
    I was at Costco yesterday (in Southern California) and asked their cell phone booth rep for the Q10. He said they got 150 units 3 days ago and they were all out. Didn't know when they would get more and that the only option to get one was to order it at the store for home delivery.

    When I got home, I called 2 more local Costco stores: same story!

    I doubt TH would say he expect to sell "tens of millions of them" just to blow hot air - this guy has been very credible so far.

    Looks like the Q10 is a hit and tomorrow should be very pleasant to BB bulls.
    Jun 27 04:42 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The Bear Case, The Bull Case And My Case [View article]
    wbjudge,

    I expect it's all of the above, but clearly for such a huge volume of shorts it has to be big money, i.e. institutions.
    Jun 27 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Longs Versus Shorts [View article]
    Ziff,

    I'm in Southern California and I'm guessing their availability is so much better up there because the launch took place a month+ ago?
    Jun 26 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Longs Versus Shorts [View article]
    I just came back from Costco. Wanted to buy a Q10. Their salesperson told me they got 150 units 3 days ago - and they're all sold out. Didn't know when they'll get more.

    I went home and called 2 more Costco's in my area (Southern Cal) - all out of stock with similar initial inventories.

    Now you can only order the phone at the store for home delivery.

    I think we're in for a pleasant surprise wrt to BB10 sales and ER on Friday.
    Jun 26 06:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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