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rephinbar

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  • Facebook: 'What's The Rush?' Meets 'Don't Worry, We'll Make More' [View article]
    @gwynfryn,

    How to benefit from the free-fall?

    one word: Short .
    Sep 28 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Happened To Apple's Quality Control? [View article]
    @craignotgreg,

    I see your point and concur with your last statement re "worst iteration ever". Clearly, the iPhone5 is better in everyway the the 3rd gen or prior.
    Sep 28 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Happened To Apple's Quality Control? [View article]
    @itsAllGreek,

    I was getting at usable consumer features, not lab test that have little meaning to the man (or woman) in the street.

    Androids have had larger screens, replaceable batteries, SD card slots, LTE support and social integration for a long time (in mobile evolution terms).

    There are also STILL some basic phone functions that iOS doesn't offer and again are available on any android phone.
    Sep 28 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Happened To Apple's Quality Control? [View article]
    Correct - iPhone is merely a catch up product for Apple: slightly bigger screen, LTE support and better FB social integration. All features that Android phone have had for 1+ years.
    Sep 28 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook The Ultimate Short? [View article]
    I think all you Yay sayers should read this to understand what's FB real problems are and why the user base is declining:

    http://read.bi/UUNHUG
    Sep 28 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Happened To Apple's Quality Control? [View article]
    zd2002 -

    "a quick reminder that it's Android that has 68% market share in the mobile space, NOT AAPL"
    Also a quick reminder: Apple has 75% profit share of the smart phone industry. Smaller box, but bigger cake. I like that.
    >>AT THE MOMENT. SEE MY LAST COMMENT.

    "Does Tim Cook & Co have the balls to take such a huge risk as to invest heavily in something unknown? ... Not so sure about Mr. Cook"
    Right, you haven't seen Cook's hands, so you must call it bluff.
    >>WHEN'S THE LAST TIME YOU HEARD JOBS APOLOGIZE IN PUBLIC FOR A PRODUCT MISHAP? my point is that Jobs had a lot less to lose when he bet on the iPhone. There's a whole lot more to lose now which would make any CEO very cautious about taking big risks. Also, Jobs was a product guy. Cook is not. iPhone 5 is not even an evolution - it's a catch up: bigger screen and LTE, more FB integration. Android phones have had that for at least 1.5 years. Until AAPL comes out with a whole new innovative product (no, not iPad mini!) there's no reason to believe they're capable of it.

    "What goes up, must come down"
    Applies to Android and its 68% market share too I guess?
    >>YES, there's no doubt WindowsPhone8 and possibly RIMM as well as a new player (Samsung?) will grab some market share from both Android and iOS. The main advantage Android has over the others is that it's an open platform and literally anyone can adopt it and customize it to be used on any hardware. Also GOOG main source of income is NOT hardware or the OS - so the impact on the share price will be minimal if any. Not so for AAPL that has most of it's revenue come from one single device. You have to agree that's huge exposure for AAPL, if they screw up with future iPhone iterations.
    Sep 28 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook The Ultimate Short? [View article]
    Remember these guys (JPM) were one of the key underwriters - they're going to coat with sugar anything they post (or ignore facts like declining user base for that matter).
    Sep 28 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time Isn't Different - Miller Energy Is A Short [View article]
    @ManAboutDallas,

    Agreed and of note, short interest in MILL month-over-month is down (to 24.7%) for the first time as long as I've been watching. Not too long ago I think it was in the high 20's.
    Sep 28 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Happened To Apple's Quality Control? [View article]
    A lot of you apple fan boys that can never see any wrong with anything that's AAPL made - a quick reminder that it's Android that has 68% market share in the mobile space, NOT AAPL.

    More to the point, when the iPhone was launched in 2007 - it had ZERO competitors. For the next 3-4 years Google Android was becoming mature and for the past 2 or so it's become the dominating platform with a Million phones activated daily. And now Android surpasses iOS in it's features by enlarge (I can already see how many comments I'll get on this one but trust me I'm in the mobile app development and we write apps for both platforms so I KNOW).

    This means AAPL cannot benefit from an unchallenged market place as it did before and inevitably their ability to grow will be highly affected, UNLESS they come out with another ground-breaking innovative product like the iPhone was at the time.

    Does Tim Cook & Co have the balls to take such a huge risk as to invest heavily in something unknown? Do they have the vision to figure out what that next thing is? Steve Jobs did. Not so sure about
    Mr Cook. And like several others commentators my hedge is against Cook, being an OPS guy.

    And finally, all you guys that think AAPL is invincible - WAKE UP - no company is. Just look at RIMM if you need a reminder.

    "What goes up, must come down" - nature's law and it's just a question of time before AAPL see's this law work on it's stock. (Not saying $100/share or in the short term but some significant retraction in the long term).
    Sep 28 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time Isn't Different - Miller Energy Is A Short [View article]
    I wish you wrote the article in a more balanced fashion also discussing what could happen if MILL indeed doubled their production by year end.

    Yes, the management has been wrong about timelines and have under estimated the timelines with some initiatives (e.g. RIG 35 or RU1) but at the end of the day - they've delivered, albeit late.

    What would your position be if in the next month or so they announce RU1 is producing 500BOE/day? And RU3 before XMAS producing as much?

    There are several very credible analysts that whole-heartily disagree with you and several funds that increased their long positions recently.

    Any article that's all bear and no bull looses much of it's credibility, especially coming from a short.
    Sep 28 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB +5.9%) is shooting higher after launching Gifts, arguably its first serious attempt to directly profit from e-commerce. Also, Topeka writes its checks indicate Facebook's mobile Sponsored Stories ads, recently the subject of a favorable JPMorgan note, are performing well[View news story]
    Another attempt of the company to pump the stock before the upcoming earnings release and lockup expiry.
    Sep 28 12:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook The Ultimate Short? [View article]
    I'm afraid Mr. Zuck set the tone for his employees and investors when he offloaded $1 Billion worth of shares on IPO day. So did Peter Thiel and Dustin Moskovitz.

    In addition, since the stock has lost ~40% of it's value, I think fear will be a huge motivator for employees and investors to offload a significant amount of shares.
    Sep 28 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook The Ultimate Short? [View article]
    @Debo08 - sorry to disappoint you but no squeeze is coming anytime soon and that's for the simple reason that the shorts have only 85Million shares which is less than 2 days of trading.

    That against 1.2 Billion (with a B) shares available for sale? even if just 10% of these shares are sold it will more than offset any short covering (and that assumes 100% of the shorts will cover which we both know will not happen).
    Sep 28 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook The Ultimate Short? [View article]
    To refresh your memory:

    On August 15th the stock was @ $21.20
    On August 17th it was down to $19.05

    that's an 11% decline.

    I don't think its a case of investor/employees believing or not in the company. Many of these investors/employees got the stock below $1/share and its their time to take some chips off the table. Its that simple.
    Sep 27 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook The Ultimate Short? [View article]
    @stone fox - what's your basis and rational for thinking most shares won't be dumped?

    To judge by history (August 16th lockup expiry) - that's exactly what happened and took the stock down $2. And that was only 270M shares.

    Now the volume is 4X bigger AND it's end of year and many will have further incentive to sell with new capital gain tax increases looming for 2013.

    Add to that, Comcast stats on declining traffic and usage.

    Add to that, Law suits.

    Add to that, uncertainty about any of the new monetization initiatives and nothing tangible in revenue to support any.


    I think Thor34 has it right: it will be a bloodbath.
    Sep 27 06:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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