Are we seeing a repeat of Yelp's lockup expiration? Facebook (FB +9.7%) has shot higher even though 773M shares and 31M restricted stock units are eligible for sale for the first time. Short-covering is undoubtedly a factor, but Pivotal Research claims many institutions were waiting for the expiration to arrive to jump in. One potential risk: unlike Yelp, Facebook's expiration isn't centered around just a handful of insiders owning large stakes, but is spread out over many employees and investors. [View news story]
Anyone else thinks the company is behind the pump today (and I don't mean in a kosher way)??
A Complete Benjamin Graham Analysis For Facebook [View article]
holbornnine,
Six-oh below is dead right. There's no way a squeeze can develop even with the current float since there are only ~80M shares short and that's about 1.5 days of trading. Now add almost 1B shares to the float and even if just 25% of them are sold, that 3 X times the short shares - i.e. way more offer than demand and NO WAY you get a short squeeze.
You are also over-estimating the mobile revenue numbers. 14% in mobile revenue doesn't tell the story since it includes tablets which are just desktop replacements. The real number is revenue from smartphones and Zuckerberg refused to answer the breakdown of smartphones vs. tablet when asked on the earnings call. For a very good reason and that is because it's minimal.
FB's trouble is that a lot of their users are moving to smartphones where advertising is dramatically less effective than on desktops or tablets because of the tiny screen.
My take is we're going to see a whole new picture of slowing revenues very soon.
Will Miller Energy Resources Double Again? [View article]
I would love to see a short squeeze like the rest of you folks, but if you think about it - 9M short shares? where did they get these borrows? this number is strangely close to the amount of shares held by institutions.
My guess is that these are naked shorts for the most part and by the very institutions that are holding stock. Which means, I don't think we will see a squeeze but I stand to be corrected.
Will Miller Energy Resources Double Again? [View article]
I'm in agreement overall with your analysis and the upside potential MILL has.
The main challenge to your assessment remains this: 9M short shares which makes up ~25% of the float.
This seems very ominous to me, especially given that this position has been increasing month-over-month over the past year.
With such a huge interest working against share price appreciation it seems to me MILL might a serious problem getting the share price to reflect their potential and improved performance overall.
Facebook (FB -2.7%) sells off as a 234M-share lockup expiration originally scheduled for Monday gets underway. Another 777M shares become available for sale on Nov. 14. Several top Facebook execs, including COO Sheryl Sandberg and CFO David Ebersman, become eligible to sell in a couple of days. Mark Zuckerberg isn't selling any more shares for now. [View news story]
You missed the last part of the first paragraph in the referenced article:
" six of Facebookâs top officers (but not Zuck) filed Form 4s today to notify the SEC their RSUs will vest into 45.3 million Class B shares on October 29th, BUT THEY WON'T BE SELLING ANY. "
Facebook (FB -2.7%) sells off as a 234M-share lockup expiration originally scheduled for Monday gets underway. Another 777M shares become available for sale on Nov. 14. Several top Facebook execs, including COO Sheryl Sandberg and CFO David Ebersman, become eligible to sell in a couple of days. Mark Zuckerberg isn't selling any more shares for now. [View news story]
Watch for the pump tomorrow - there's a FB PR event on Gifts.
One Billion Zynga Reasons To Continue Shorting Facebook [View article]
Am I the only one here that's thinking 14% in mobile advertising is a misleading figure because it's representing tablets as well as smartphones?
Clearly, tablets are replacing some desktops but as far as ad effectiveness I would put to you that the tablet app would enjoy a similar ad uptake rate to the desktop because the screen real estate is still large enough. So what % of the 14% is tablet consumption? Zuck and company wouldn't answer that question on the earnings call which to me is a huge tell sign.
Even if only half of that number (although I suspect more) is from Tablet, this means that the actual mobile revenue from smartphones is really only 7%. And again, I suspect this is quite a bit lower.
If that it so and since I believe more users are going to be engaging on FB on smartphones in the long run then I think FB hasn't really cracked anything relative to replacing their desktop ad revenue by their mobile ads (i.e. smartphones) and that we will see a big dip in revenues not too long from now.
What's Happened To Apple's Quality Control? [View article]
Jocca,
you couldn't be more wrong about the above reply.
First, a huge number of androids get upgrades for next releases. I bought an HTC rezound with 2.3 and 8 month later I'm running 4.0. And there are many examples like this.
Furthermore, Android does not have more bugs than Apple. iOS has plenty. Just check the various forums.
Next, If you're going to quote an article about DoD getting off blackberry - please do so with honesty: http://wapo.st/Rrf4Si
The DoD is going to be buying BOTH iPhones AND Android. So there goes your slam against Android.
And lastly, to remind you Android has 65% of the smartphone market. That's the consumer choice. So 2 out of 3 people go for an Android phone rather than an iPhone.
The iPhone has at least as many security issues with it as Android: http://bit.ly/UXuORl
Seems to me you're coming from ignorance with your viewpoint on Android. Please get educated before you post.
One Billion Zynga Reasons To Continue Shorting Facebook [View article]
So if their mobile definition includes tablets then the 14% is a mis-representation since it doesn't reflect the effectiveness of their ads on smartphones - where I believe the largest part of their audience is migrating to.
One Billion Zynga Reasons To Continue Shorting Facebook [View article]
2 things to consider:
LONG: FB didn't specify (to the best of my knowledge) whether their definition of Mobile includes Tablets (windows/apple/android) or not. If it does, then in reality their stated 14% from mobile is a whole lot lower.
SHORT: Right after the 10/29 lockup expiry they have a PR event on Nov 1st to present Gifts. Clearly an attempt to pump the stock up after 10/29 and before 11/14.
Facebook Shares Drift Near September Lows Amid Concerns Over Slower Growth [View article]
Dominic,
Don't be so sure. It's not clear at all whether FB includes Tablets (Android/Apple/Windows) in their definition of Mobile. If yes, then the 14% from mobile revenues is very bogus and in reality a whole lot lower.
Are we seeing a repeat of Yelp's lockup expiration? Facebook (FB +9.7%) has shot higher even though 773M shares and 31M restricted stock units are eligible for sale for the first time. Short-covering is undoubtedly a factor, but Pivotal Research claims many institutions were waiting for the expiration to arrive to jump in. One potential risk: unlike Yelp, Facebook's expiration isn't centered around just a handful of insiders owning large stakes, but is spread out over many employees and investors. [View news story]
Here Comes Facebook's Biggest Test [View article]
A Complete Benjamin Graham Analysis For Facebook [View article]
A Complete Benjamin Graham Analysis For Facebook [View article]
Six-oh below is dead right. There's no way a squeeze can develop even with the current float since there are only ~80M shares short and that's about 1.5 days of trading. Now add almost 1B shares to the float and even if just 25% of them are sold, that 3 X times the short shares - i.e. way more offer than demand and NO WAY you get a short squeeze.
You are also over-estimating the mobile revenue numbers. 14% in mobile revenue doesn't tell the story since it includes tablets which are just desktop replacements. The real number is revenue from smartphones and Zuckerberg refused to answer the breakdown of smartphones vs. tablet when asked on the earnings call. For a very good reason and that is because it's minimal.
FB's trouble is that a lot of their users are moving to smartphones where advertising is dramatically less effective than on desktops or tablets because of the tiny screen.
My take is we're going to see a whole new picture of slowing revenues very soon.
Will Miller Energy Resources Double Again? [View article]
Look at the chart YTD and you'll see what I mean. Goes up to $5-ish then back to $4-ish like a yoyo and back again.
And even now after significant news on RU1 and good future prospects on RU3, the stock peaked to $5 again and now back in mid $4's..
This stock will go nowhere as long at there are 9M+ short shares.
Will Miller Energy Resources Double Again? [View article]
Will Miller Energy Resources Double Again? [View article]
My guess is that these are naked shorts for the most part and by the very institutions that are holding stock. Which means, I don't think we will see a squeeze but I stand to be corrected.
Any thoughts?
Will Miller Energy Resources Double Again? [View article]
The main challenge to your assessment remains this: 9M short shares which makes up ~25% of the float.
This seems very ominous to me, especially given that this position has been increasing month-over-month over the past year.
With such a huge interest working against share price appreciation it seems to me MILL might a serious problem getting the share price to reflect their potential and improved performance overall.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on this. Thanks.
Facebook (FB -2.7%) sells off as a 234M-share lockup expiration originally scheduled for Monday gets underway. Another 777M shares become available for sale on Nov. 14. Several top Facebook execs, including COO Sheryl Sandberg and CFO David Ebersman, become eligible to sell in a couple of days. Mark Zuckerberg isn't selling any more shares for now. [View news story]
" six of Facebookâs top officers (but not Zuck) filed Form 4s today to notify the SEC their RSUs will vest into 45.3 million Class B shares on October 29th, BUT THEY WON'T BE SELLING ANY. "
Facebook (FB -2.7%) sells off as a 234M-share lockup expiration originally scheduled for Monday gets underway. Another 777M shares become available for sale on Nov. 14. Several top Facebook execs, including COO Sheryl Sandberg and CFO David Ebersman, become eligible to sell in a couple of days. Mark Zuckerberg isn't selling any more shares for now. [View news story]
One Billion Zynga Reasons To Continue Shorting Facebook [View article]
Clearly, tablets are replacing some desktops but as far as ad effectiveness I would put to you that the tablet app would enjoy a similar ad uptake rate to the desktop because the screen real estate
is still large enough. So what % of the 14% is tablet consumption? Zuck and company wouldn't answer that question on the earnings call which to me is a huge tell sign.
Even if only half of that number (although I suspect more) is from Tablet, this means that the actual mobile revenue from smartphones is really only 7%. And again, I suspect this is quite a bit lower.
If that it so and since I believe more users are going to be engaging on FB on smartphones in the long run then I think FB hasn't really cracked anything relative to replacing their desktop ad revenue by their mobile ads (i.e. smartphones) and that we will see a big dip in revenues not too long from now.
comments welcome.
What's Happened To Apple's Quality Control? [View article]
you couldn't be more wrong about the above reply.
First, a huge number of androids get upgrades for next releases. I bought an HTC rezound with 2.3 and 8 month later I'm running 4.0. And there are many examples like this.
Furthermore, Android does not have more bugs than Apple. iOS has plenty. Just check the various forums.
Next, If you're going to quote an article about DoD getting off blackberry - please do so with honesty:
http://wapo.st/Rrf4Si
The DoD is going to be buying BOTH iPhones AND Android. So there goes your slam against Android.
And lastly, to remind you Android has 65% of the smartphone market. That's the consumer choice. So 2 out of 3 people go for an Android phone rather than an iPhone.
The iPhone has at least as many security issues with it as Android:
http://bit.ly/UXuORl
Seems to me you're coming from ignorance with your viewpoint on Android. Please get educated before you post.
One Billion Zynga Reasons To Continue Shorting Facebook [View article]
One Billion Zynga Reasons To Continue Shorting Facebook [View article]
LONG: FB didn't specify (to the best of my knowledge) whether their definition of Mobile includes Tablets (windows/apple/android) or not. If it does, then in reality their stated 14% from mobile is a whole lot lower.
SHORT: Right after the 10/29 lockup expiry they have a PR event on Nov 1st to present Gifts. Clearly an attempt to pump the stock up after 10/29 and before 11/14.
Facebook Shares Drift Near September Lows Amid Concerns Over Slower Growth [View article]
Don't be so sure. It's not clear at all whether FB includes Tablets (Android/Apple/Windows) in their definition of Mobile. If yes, then the 14% from mobile revenues is very bogus and in reality a whole lot lower.