Out with the old. The Netflix-DreamWorks Animation deal signals an important change in the way content is distributed, according to industry watchers The most important part of the deal is that it focus on exclusive fresh content for Netflix (NFLX +6.8%) from DreamWorks (DWA +4%) - instead of just filling up a library with older titles. The big picture: A bidding war for new films from Hollywood studios (LGF, SNE, VIA, CMCSA, DIS) could help the industry maximize profits. George Lucas and Steven Spielberg called it (I, II) last week when they predicted giant upheaval for the film industry. [View news story]
Lucas and Spielberg were actually predicting a doomsday scenario for the film business where nobody went to the movies anymore and theatres would close en masse and those that remained would be charging Broadway show prices of $100 a ticket. If that happens 95% of content will move to home distribution providers like HBO and Netflix. In a scenario like this Netflix will be a winner with the massive subscriber additions they'll get which should drive the stock price to the moon despite the rising content costs.
That will be a sad day indeed when we can't go out for dinner and a movie with our wives or girlfriends. Movie theaters become another casualty of the internet revolution like book stores, newspapers, music and DVD stores.
I usually don't bottom fish on an analyst saying the news is an overreaction but in this case I think the Deutsche Bank analyst is right. Down 17% on a pulled debt offering by the company is a little much.
I can see why WLT pulled it, the public would not buy that trash that they were trying to sell. Borrowing unsecured money to pay back their secured loans, they would have to give me 12-15% for that garbage. I'm sure they were offering a lot less than that for that paper.
Apple's Upcoming Products - Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
I still don't understand what the problem is in introducing a larger phone. All you get from Cook is we'll build one if it meets our quality standards, doesn't make sense.
I would love them to say at WWDC we've heard what our customers want and we will be introducing a larger phone in time for Christmas and watch the stock take off.
Lazlo has been steadfast in saying stay long since 2009 despite Greece, Italy, Spain, economic slowdowns, 9 percent unemployment, housing crisises etc.
Now I think the economy has a tailwinds and nothing but green lights and if the Fed stays accommodative as I suspect they will I see S&P 1900 in the cards. We have not reached the speculative excesses yet in the stock market.
Nordic American Tankers: Rise Of The Phoenix [View article]
Sorry it's the Baltic Dry Index and it's not directly related to tanker shipping rates but does anyone know if rates are near all time lows like the bulk shippers are experiencing?
Nordic American Tankers: Rise Of The Phoenix [View article]
I agree the Bulk Dry Index is hovering near all time lows. This pricing is not sustainable for many of the bulk dry shippers and bankruptcies are imminent for many shippers.
I would avoid the shippers, steel and coal companies even in this red hot bull market.
The only guy that has called this market correctly is Lazlo Biryini and he just upped his forecast to 1900 on the S&P.
I would buy the dips unless you see the Fed get really aggressive in tightening but I don't see that happening until we see either inflation or 6-6.5% unemployment.
This correction Friday was fear that the Fed will take away the punch bowl but as long as Bernanke is around I don't see that happening until the economy fulfills the employment potential he talks about.
First Solar, Inc. Announces First Quarter 2013 Financial Results [View article]
Really surprised the stock is up slightly in the AH with that miss. The Y/Y comps were OK but the Q/Q weren't and the stock has had a huge run already, guess the stock has more room to run with the shorts covering.
Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
I think Cook will announce a hefty dividend increase but those wishing for that announcement to boost the share price, be careful of what you wish for.
Changing the profile of Apple from a growth stock to a dividend/income stock may mean that it never approaches the $500 level again where many bought the stock. Apple needs another hit like the iPhone not a fat 4% dividend.
Apache: Finding Value In Today's Market [View article]
I thought it was unusual that 3 firms chose to downgrade the stock from buy to hold on the same day with no news.
Another 52 week low today and trading below $70 as I write this, maybe the catalyst to drive the stock price up will be a significant asset sale or the earnings report and under $70 may be the time to nibble on the stock but it has been a woeful stock for shareholders.
Apache: Finding Value In Today's Market [View article]
3 downgrades today on APA, MS, Oppenheimer and JP Morgan. Set a new 52 week low this morning. I would stay away. I said it would be in the 60's several weeks ago and we are almost there.
Amazon Loses Money On Both Prime And Its Entire Direct Retail Business [View article]
Two positive sell side notes as well today. CS talking about margin improvements from infrastructure investments and Pac Crest citing strong Kindle Fire sales.
Several U.S. retailers have seen a pickup in Z10 returns, says Detwiler Fenton in a note that could be pressuring BlackBerry (BBRY -5.2%). Detwiler, which also issued a downbeat note on Z10 demand last month, adds the pace of returns in some cases is exceeding the pace of sales, and that users are complaining about the Z10's UI, Maps app, and app availability. Separately, Amazon has cut its subsidized Z10 price to $99. (AT&T launch) [View news story]
The bulls are in trouble when a company with a research dept. of 6 people can cause BBRY to fall by a buck.
The real reason is it was ripe for selling having made no headway after the Z10 launch and earnings, even a strong market couldn't turn the price up.
Apple Has Become The Most Underrated Stock [View article]
No question that the stock is cheap but that chart is broken, I think we break $420 before the earnings on 4/23.
There are however quite a few rabbits that Cook can pull out of his bag of tricks to get the stock moving higher on 4/23, I hope he doesn't dissappoint.
"After our meeting with a tech-supply chain company, we walked away with the view that Apple will release the iPhone 5S in at least two screen sizes this summer and possibly three," says Topeka's Brian White. "We believe Apple is coming around to the fact that one size per iPhone release does not work for everyone," he adds. Last week, the Apple (AAPL -0.6%) perma-bull/supply-chain tracker predicted a TV with a ring accessory will arrive. Meanwhile, Digitimes reports 5th-gen iPad production will commence in the July-August timeframe; that's in-line with earlier reports. [View news story]
He's got a spotty record with his product predictions but I suspect he is right on this one. What's so hard about introducing a larger screen in a phone, Cook should announce this at the next earnings call along with a nice dividend boost.
Out with the old. The Netflix-DreamWorks Animation deal signals an important change in the way content is distributed, according to industry watchers The most important part of the deal is that it focus on exclusive fresh content for Netflix (NFLX +6.8%) from DreamWorks (DWA +4%) - instead of just filling up a library with older titles. The big picture: A bidding war for new films from Hollywood studios (LGF, SNE, VIA, CMCSA, DIS) could help the industry maximize profits. George Lucas and Steven Spielberg called it (I, II) last week when they predicted giant upheaval for the film industry. [View news story]
That will be a sad day indeed when we can't go out for dinner and a movie with our wives or girlfriends. Movie theaters become another casualty of the internet revolution like book stores, newspapers, music and DVD stores.
Walter Energy (WLT -12.8%) dives after Forbes reports the company withdrew a proposed $1.55B debt refinancing offer due to "market conditions." Other coal stocks are also off: BTU -4.5%. ACI -7.1%. CLF -3.5%. ANR -5.1%. OXF -3.1%. JRCC -3.3%. CLD -4.1%. [View news story]
I can see why WLT pulled it, the public would not buy that trash that they were trying to sell. Borrowing unsecured money to pay back their secured loans, they would have to give me 12-15% for that garbage. I'm sure they were offering a lot less than that for that paper.
Apple's Upcoming Products - Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
I would love them to say at WWDC we've heard what our customers want and we will be introducing a larger phone in time for Christmas and watch the stock take off.
S&P 500: Do Not Buy This Dip [View article]
Now I think the economy has a tailwinds and nothing but green lights and if the Fed stays accommodative as I suspect they will I see S&P 1900 in the cards. We have not reached the speculative excesses yet in the stock market.
Nordic American Tankers: Rise Of The Phoenix [View article]
Nordic American Tankers: Rise Of The Phoenix [View article]
I would avoid the shippers, steel and coal companies even in this red hot bull market.
S&P 500: Do Not Buy This Dip [View article]
I would buy the dips unless you see the Fed get really aggressive in tightening but I don't see that happening until we see either inflation or 6-6.5% unemployment.
This correction Friday was fear that the Fed will take away the punch bowl but as long as Bernanke is around I don't see that happening until the economy fulfills the employment potential he talks about.
First Solar, Inc. Announces First Quarter 2013 Financial Results [View article]
Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
Changing the profile of Apple from a growth stock to a dividend/income stock may mean that it never approaches the $500 level again where many bought the stock. Apple needs another hit like the iPhone not a fat 4% dividend.
Apache: Finding Value In Today's Market [View article]
Another 52 week low today and trading below $70 as I write this, maybe the catalyst to drive the stock price up will be a significant asset sale or the earnings report and under $70 may be the time to nibble on the stock but it has been a woeful stock for shareholders.
Apache: Finding Value In Today's Market [View article]
Amazon Loses Money On Both Prime And Its Entire Direct Retail Business [View article]
Several U.S. retailers have seen a pickup in Z10 returns, says Detwiler Fenton in a note that could be pressuring BlackBerry (BBRY -5.2%). Detwiler, which also issued a downbeat note on Z10 demand last month, adds the pace of returns in some cases is exceeding the pace of sales, and that users are complaining about the Z10's UI, Maps app, and app availability. Separately, Amazon has cut its subsidized Z10 price to $99. (AT&T launch) [View news story]
The real reason is it was ripe for selling having made no headway after the Z10 launch and earnings, even a strong market couldn't turn the price up.
Apple Has Become The Most Underrated Stock [View article]
There are however quite a few rabbits that Cook can pull out of his bag of tricks to get the stock moving higher on 4/23, I hope he doesn't dissappoint.
"After our meeting with a tech-supply chain company, we walked away with the view that Apple will release the iPhone 5S in at least two screen sizes this summer and possibly three," says Topeka's Brian White. "We believe Apple is coming around to the fact that one size per iPhone release does not work for everyone," he adds. Last week, the Apple (AAPL -0.6%) perma-bull/supply-chain tracker predicted a TV with a ring accessory will arrive. Meanwhile, Digitimes reports 5th-gen iPad production will commence in the July-August timeframe; that's in-line with earlier reports. [View news story]