Rising Asset Prices Sharpen U.S. Policy Challenge [View article]
"and Aristophones" cough, cough "is in his prime" cough, cough, cough. wonderful article...knocked the cover off the ball here...this recovery is real and if you're a trader or investor you're a buyer. i waiting in the Treasury camp but i will DECAMP should there (ever?) be something that can even throw a wrench in this thing...let alone a monkey wrench. the execution of America Inc. since the financial collapse has been OUTSTANDING....and seems to be working with the policy response. i will be listening..."obliquely... the Fed Chairman to see/hear the how's and why's of what it takes to start broadening this recovery out to the folks like me..."the working stiffs"...and i hope whatever it is he and his Committee have in mind it works. ready to get back to school...move up that ladder...and start rockin' in the real world. (and if you're hiring consider this my resume cuz yes...i am this good.)
wonderful charts....love the simplicity. Wall Street's looking lean and mean in here. "storm of the century" no doubt...but ever since Obama's re-elect there have been breakouts all over the place. animal spirits GALORE. "just give me one massive jobs print." 800,000 sound good...
Bull Run Likely To Continue So Long As Low Quality Outperforms High Quality [View article]
if my treasury gambit doesn't pan out (back where i started) it's small caps for me. there is no greater word for this recovery than "anemic" or "slow." but you can light these candles too...and if there's any hint of inflation i want the inflation fighters (the little guys) on my side. it's simply an axiom that those closest to where the business actually being transacted are the ones who keep their costs most in line. obviously a policy conducive to creating jobs would be nice...but i gave up on that in 2006...and unfortunately have not been disappointed. shall we throw in a catastrophic war effort to boot? awful. one of most disgraceful periods in American history ever. i'm long treasuries right now so sure...i will be listening VERY closely to what the Fed chairman says tomorrow. but by no means am I "against" the recovery still underway....so obviously he has something to say about he is going to go about "broadening and deepening it" then i'm all ears. this thing had all the markings of a Great Depression 2.0...how this country has so far dodged it is beyond me...but if your job is to be in this thing then your job is to be full invested here.
Farmland Values Increase By 20% In Plains States [View article]
"shark infested waters." those lands "as is" are some of the most valuable things on the Planet in my view. Wall Street stands ready to "drive up those asset prices to the moon" as well. there is no greater "real" asset in my view than Iowa farmland. if i were you i'd start taking a personal interest in some of those gentlemen.
"when the Fed moves against QE." this will not be the end of the world either btw but i do agree we may have a short term equity deflation as a consequence of the dollar support being created by such a thing. with the war effort (the "other QE") showing no signs of abating ever and the banking system looking pretty tiny right now you want to be in equities...long management and labor. "don't fight the Fed" nor those on her side. i had thoughts of a statistically significant decline in equities this year but that idea is quickly fading. for the record i have been on the record bullish for four years now...saving this year.
his reasoning sure is a bunch of gibberish that's fer sure. he's not talking business cycle ("we've only just begun"), credit cycles ("bubble reinflation nothing more"), technology cycles (here comes Microsoft et al...start buying) and a new energy paradigm (away from oil and towards solar and natural gas.) if he's your salesperson for a bull market i'd get another actually. these are my reasons for being bullish...plus "interest rates at or near zero." wish we had a jobs boom so i could take advantage of all the opportunities out there. not ready to move to North Dakota quite yet...but it's really hard to say no actually. so much of the world i grew up in has been "ended." like they never wanted to be here in the first place actually...
The Major Bubble That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
we are not "told" we are missing out on something...we tell OURSELVES that we are doing that. hmmmm. "commodities are getting hammered." i say that's a low...and start dollar cost averaging in. i would do so by buying a railroad stock of course. UNP is the best of the best. can't say how the Buffet (BNSF) play is doing cuz he put the thing inside a wonderful insurance company. if he spun it off of course i'd be a buyer...
here let me help you: "earnings, earnings, earnings, earnings, earnings." business are GROWING MASSIVELY...and i ain't talking "ruthless cost cutting" here but the TOP LINE as well. that in and of itself is a MASSIVE inflation indicator. a very high quality managerial class...let alone working class!... is running this "machine"...stick that in your formula and smoke it.
More on Home Depot (HD): Earnings beat expectations on both the top and bottom line as Q1 revenues rise 7.4% Y/Y. A "seasonal timing change" adds $574M to sales. Comps growth comes in at 4.3% (4.8% in the U.S.). "Less favorable" weather conditions were more than offset by a "recovering housing market," CEO Frank Blake says. HD raises its FY13 outlook, saying it sees 2.8% sales growth, 4% comps growth, and EPS of $3.52 (consensus is $3.54). Shares +2.92% premarket. (PR) [View news story]
this is truly a wonderful company in a wonderful industry as well. one cannot understand the reason for its superlative results however without understanding its relationship to government and ZONING requirements and BUILDING codes. while mostly observed in the breach these codes have created the "home industry" to such a level and extent in the USA et al that indeed this industry is capable of exporting product as well. here was the first to explore this idea: http://bit.ly/1917yaf this is really wonderful stuff..."catalogue homes" as they were called "back in a more civilized time."
really like this Fed Chairman and his "you go first" way of doing things. he is collegial of course...but still the Chairman. i will be watching for two things...one announcement goes along the lines of "this is not forever." the other is an actual announcement of "the end" with a date certain. i think he can do both and insodoing would be helping not hurting markets..."providing confidence" as it were...but that is forward looking "down the road" as they say. clearly this is "dip oriented" behavior...his first time getting used to that action as Fed Chairman..."managing success" as it were is so much easier than managing failure however.
What's Bad For Gold Is Good For Stocks [View article]
it's called "the herd" ... or "the thundering herd" actually. one cannot foretell an event that matters with any precision but one can spot a reality in the trend. do i follow the crowd and get carried away...or do i separate myself and "peer ominously" at how easily the crowd is manipulated? this is no small question indeed. in my view the crowd is irrepresible and so in general we will always be carried away. but intuitively we can also separate ourselves...just by dint of our own individuality if need be...and in so doing provide skepticism "within our self." obviously you need to read articles and be informed...but nothing is more fundamental than simply understanding that equities are risk incarnate...and as such you're in the game and you play to win. i don't have a problem with the idea of risk...indeed i like the idea because it puts you on a path to discovery that gets you to understand far more clearly the risks in so called "riskless assets." of course there's nothing wrong with plain old cash even though it yields next to nothing. the simplest advice is still the best: DO NOT BE AFRAID TO TURN YOUR MONEY OVER TO A FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL. (ideally one with twenty years under the belt.) the amounts i'm dealing with are too small to have to worry about that...and that's one reason i'm always on the hunt for the Alpha. if i'm not compounding 30 percent a year then i'm not keeping up with my Jones'en.
i would think phasing out QE early would be dollar positive, commodity negative, equity negative and treasury positive. "maybe they're just getting a handle on this thing they've created."
Rising Asset Prices Sharpen U.S. Policy Challenge [View article]
A Long Way Down For Financial CDS [View article]
Bull Run Likely To Continue So Long As Low Quality Outperforms High Quality [View article]
Farmland Values Increase By 20% In Plains States [View article]
Jeremy Siegel: Dow 17,000 In 2013 [View article]
Jeremy Siegel: Dow 17,000 In 2013 [View article]
The Major Bubble That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
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Crop Progress: Corn Acres Planted Jumps To 71% [View article]
Farmland Values Increased 4% In First Quarter Of 2013 [View article]
More on Home Depot (HD): Earnings beat expectations on both the top and bottom line as Q1 revenues rise 7.4% Y/Y. A "seasonal timing change" adds $574M to sales. Comps growth comes in at 4.3% (4.8% in the U.S.). "Less favorable" weather conditions were more than offset by a "recovering housing market," CEO Frank Blake says. HD raises its FY13 outlook, saying it sees 2.8% sales growth, 4% comps growth, and EPS of $3.52 (consensus is $3.54). Shares +2.92% premarket. (PR) [View news story]
Sterling And Yen Wait For No Man [View article]
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What's Bad For Gold Is Good For Stocks [View article]
No Easy Answers [View article]