Transport Stocks: A Warning Signal To The Bear On The Tracks [View article]
the only competition with rail are actual ships...and those have been few and far between for some time now. rail has done so well for so long it's hard to imagine there not being some type of "bull market correction" yet these equities in general and UNP in particular keep chugging along. i think coal is about to resume it's rightful place as "head of the energy line" here very shortly. natural gas prices have surged off their lows and the energy efficiency of a "lump of coal" (especially of the West Virginia/Kentucky variety) simply cannot be beat. under that metric Norfolk Southern looks like a an excellent buy here. having said that the other "rail only" play are container shipments (where truck and train meet.) this is a HUGE cash cow...and since there has never been a actual interruption of trade flows "apres deluge" i fail to see how one can remain permanently on the sidelines. Kansas City Southern is as well a great way to play the "North South connection." we'll see if the recovery falters here...there is much to be argued for an American consumer suddenly becoming price conscious here. but since rail moves items "in bulk" any sudden pull back "from consumption to savings" looks to be an added benefit. obviously should there be an actual recovery worthy of the name that would be a REAL reason to be a buyer. we shall see...
How Transportation Has Affected Energy And How It Will Be Impacting Energy Stocks Next [View article]
you also have the ear of the President and his new Energy Secretary. coming from Chicago the President does not need to be told the value of "better, faster, cheaper" when it comes to transportation. indeed the President gave an explicit speech today of "creating the vehicle of tomorrow today." the American people don't want a car that gets 40 mpg...they want one that gets 400 mpg...and i would not be surprised to see by years end. Detroit obviously doesn't need to be told of the perils of "hitching your (war)wagon to Big Oil's star." it bankrupted the entire industry this time around. Tesla and Nissan have already shown "the way forward." I expect the entire industry to follow "In Step" in short order. my personal view is that the standard is the "Mars Rover" solar powered direct drive engine "which combustion as your back up." the "gold standard" appears to me right now to be the hybrid engine tech going into the new Cadillac this fall. 1.4 liter 4 cylinder battery as primary and combustion as secondary strikes me as THE standard bearer. shall see of course...
America's Energy Future: Challenges And Opportunities [View article]
you also have a "BP shadow" that is now going away after the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Also US consumption has completely collapsed due to the Great Recession...to levels of usage insofar as gasoline is concerned not seen since 1996. Congress can do a lot of work here to speed up the process of making the US a net exporter of oil and all other energy products if it wishes to. First would be a law mandating all US vehicles be dual fuel compatible. (with ethanol which we already produce by the billions of gallons now.) this is not a hugely expensive proposition...perhaps adding 500-800 dollars in cost to the car by creating corrosion resistant fuel lines, fuel tanks and combustion chambers. that would reduce the cost of actually maintaining a vehicle over it's life enormously. throw in continued subsidies for all electric vehicles, demand all Government vehicles be all electric starting in say 2014 (big deal insofar as the Postal Service is concerned), and push Boeing even hard in developing "solar batteries" capable of running a jet engine over vast distances...i really think the end is nigh for America's oil dependency. "proof in the pudding is in the eating" of course but with inventories consistently hitting well above the 5 year average for many years now methinks the "end is nigh."
Commodity Chart Of The Day: U.S. Dollar Index [View article]
the Fed can't lower rates anymore so i'm having a hard time seeing how the dollar falls out of bed given that we already have "QE forever" and the zero bound interest rate policy. clearly the trade deficit figures are not conducive to growth and therefore not supportive of further dollar appreciation. at the same time the US is quickly become the world's largest oil producer...and world largest energy producer by far as well. dollars are drying up in the world and that says to me investment will begin to really ramp up this summer in "all things American" (especially real estate) as the Fed continues its Bubble 3.0 plan. the President's plan for bridge re-building of the entire interstate highway system still has yet to truly take off...i would argue it's about to though. with this much abundant and cheap energy and other resources i would not be surprised to see real estate booms in unlikely places (Scranton, Pa-Morgantown, WV-Youngstown, OH--Bangor ME) as this is far from a " conventional" recovery. i would not be surprised to see spot labor shortages that have only appeared regularly in North Dakota start appear in all sorts of places in the USA this year. the politics of this energy revolution are compelling...but just the beginning as we have a revolution in materials (carbon nano) and manufacturing (3 d printing) all of which are "conspiring" to produce a truly epic industrial revolution 3.0. very exciting and interesting....and equity prices keep pushing higher because of it.
Algae, EVs, And Other 'Clean Energy' Distractions Vs. Nat Gas Transportation [View article]
yes. research the all electric Ford Ranger and how that product got killed by Detroit. Detroit itself ended up getting killed by the oil monster ironically enough. que sera sera. also John Petersen has gone to great lengths to say that there have been major advancements made in plain old lead acid battery technology...i know General Electric already has one of these "super batteries" already made and ready to go. we also have an ongoing revolution in the materials space that is making cars far light, stronger and more durable than anything made prior to. if a "paper battery" can be made to provide direct sunlight to power energy then simply put "it's lights out" for imported energy. the USA already produces far more energy than it consumes...becoming a net energy exporter will take time i agree. but the fact that the USA is already moving in that direction and dramatically so actually has already started to alter to flows of finance and money in dramatic ways as well.
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan calls his latest budget proposal "an invitation to the president of the United States, to the Senate Democrats to come together to fix these problems." Democratic Representative Chris Van Hollen says it's a "total uncompromising" blueprint and dead on arrival. Hollen adds a warning to the markets as well, noting that despite the healthy performance of stocks recently, the impact from another stalemate will likely reverse those gains very quickly. [View news story]
just guessing here but methinks "the plan" is to keep Social Security intact "however ridiculous it sounds."
Marcellus Shale: 10 Bcf Per Day In 2013 [View article]
when the totality of demand lies in the Northeast and the large urban centers there i fail to see the problem with "takeaway capacity." PRICING could be a problem should the bulk of the resource continue to be diverted for electricity consumption. talk about "waste, fraud and abuse." these prices were 15 bucks a cubic foot not that long ago..and still are that high in East Asia. with the amount in storage at "beyond all measure" record highs i must say i'm surprised the Federal Government hasn't done more to discourage the rampant speculation let alone plain old fashioned "resource utilization." shuttering coal mines? really? TOTAL failure of Federal management of the issue.
February Private Payolls: The Best Month For Growth Since November [View article]
this doesn't feel like the post 9/11 recovery for some reason. it's also impossible to ignore the "Commanding Heights" feel of those who play God with recovery. Energy prices always get "just there" and..."amazingly"...su... pull back. the consumer market seems patently rigged towards "just high enough prices" it's really hard not to imagine some really going wrong. My money is on Korea...though the euro zone is looking like it's going to go critical any day now as well. we already have an Arab revolt that is ongoing. Venezuela isn't looking very stable either. I'm still not ready to throw in the towel and move to North Dakota..."the last bastion of human civilization left on planet earth." still...given the trillions in energy we have sitting in storage...and trillions more we borrow just to spend every year now...it sure seems we all should be doing a lot better than we are in fact doing. wouldn't you agree?
Why Batteries Are Too Valuable To Waste On Solar Power Integration And Electric Cars [View article]
EIA numbers don't lie. the amount of fossil fuels in storage is simply staggering. SLOWLY we are transitioning away from the oil matrix and towards "simplicity of engineering." frankly i could care less about the fuel or fuel storage. the whole problem as i see it is the waste known as "combustion" itself. direct drive engines (ala "the mars rover") is the way of now...once we get power to weight ratios down to where we don't need all that "juice" to begin with then we'll be talking about the revolution. i don't think we're that far away actually. 3-5 years and the whole "oil thing" will be done and gone forever. my view is that the only reason we have to use oil and oil based fuels now is because government and Wall Street won't know what to speculate on once the goo is no longer needed as a fuel. as a MATERIAL compound i don't think oil is going anywhere...indeed one of the reasons we want to move beyond using oil as a fuel is so that that we can recognize its true value in the materials space in my view.
my personal view is that there are price problems in the precious metals complex should dividends start increasing markedly. given the failed economic policies of both Wall Street and the Government i would not be surprised to see USA Inc "pick up the slack" by starting to pay out more. Europe and Japan are in a shambles and China is barely hanging on...i think the fact that Silver Wheaton sold off due to the potential for a very generous payout to shareholders is a tell. "more is coming"...and that would be from the companies that really matter...General Mills, Wisconsin Energy, Dupont, XOM etc...still, good article. clearly we are in need of finding "price depressed assets" in a world where the Fed makes everything over valued save the dollar and natural gas.
Why Today's Labor Report Is Good For Precious Metals [View article]
i think the biggest support for precious metals...and commodities in general...the fact the high quality equities yield very little...is about to change. i see a statistically significant increase in the income offings of USA Inc as global events have "cleared the decks of the competition." gold and silver do not do well when competing against said asset class. we'll see how the miners do of course...but i also see a big change in the way debt is "viewed" coming as well.
Institutions are "still leery of stocks ... after 13 years of having their hearts broken," says Howard Marks (OAK). "You can see that in their low stock allocations compared with the period of 2000 and before." He expects stocks will need a couple more good years before "the love affair will really be rekindled." What's Oaktree excited about now? Commercial real estate in secondary markets - raw land, finishing projects, distressed properties. [View news story]
retailer investors have been stomped on given the economy and the Governmental response. Institutions obviously are terrified as a consequence as they see the complete disconnect between equities and "reality" and prefer the safety of treasuries and other debt instruments. this has been true for four years now....the behemoths are not about to change now that we've hit all time highs. this represents the opportunity of a lifetime..still in my view...to pick up great equities at fire sale prices. "never short a dull market" nor a dull economy. by and large the Government interventions have been a complete failure at getting growth in the economy moving higher. it appears to be a "power thing" so i don't see that changing anytime soon as much as i would like to. God forbid if there is open warfare on the Korean Penninsula or a major explosion in Saudi Arabia. Whether the USA wants it or not we're right in the middle of the two hottest spots on the planet. having been in both places i don't think "being there" is the way to go....but there are those people who "do love it so" as well. anywho..."worst recovery on record" continues. it is what the electorate voted for...
The Stagnation Behind The Excellent Jobs Report [View article]
Henry Ford who was very much an "academic" had an idea who's time may have finally come: "distributed manufacturing." his economic theory was "all the garage's a maker of a car." with 3 dimensional printing that in fact can become a reality now. how to CREATE such a reality of course is another thing entirely. it would be nice if our media helped instead of hindered. nay, veerily..."we are made to wander in the wilderness" insofar as that is concerned. yet imagine if we took the 787 Dreamliner team and had them put forth to the American people "make me a part for an airplane...i'll supply the plans, the material and the device for the making" how much more connected we would be "with all the trillions." Indeed i see nothing to stop Ford Motor Company itself from pursuing such a plan. "it sure would drive sales" if they had say...10 million Americans each supplying the various parts for their "volks wagon." what couldn't be made? and the answer of course is "everything could be made" under such a model. it has the added value of making people think in terms of work and WHAT works as well.
Transport Stocks: A Warning Signal To The Bear On The Tracks [View article]
How Transportation Has Affected Energy And How It Will Be Impacting Energy Stocks Next [View article]
America's Energy Future: Challenges And Opportunities [View article]
Commodity Chart Of The Day: U.S. Dollar Index [View article]
Algae, EVs, And Other 'Clean Energy' Distractions Vs. Nat Gas Transportation [View article]
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan calls his latest budget proposal "an invitation to the president of the United States, to the Senate Democrats to come together to fix these problems." Democratic Representative Chris Van Hollen says it's a "total uncompromising" blueprint and dead on arrival. Hollen adds a warning to the markets as well, noting that despite the healthy performance of stocks recently, the impact from another stalemate will likely reverse those gains very quickly. [View news story]
Marcellus Shale: 10 Bcf Per Day In 2013 [View article]
February Private Payolls: The Best Month For Growth Since November [View article]
The New Face Of Silver Wheaton [View article]
Why Batteries Are Too Valuable To Waste On Solar Power Integration And Electric Cars [View article]
The New Face Of Silver Wheaton [View article]
Why Today's Labor Report Is Good For Precious Metals [View article]
Institutions are "still leery of stocks ... after 13 years of having their hearts broken," says Howard Marks (OAK). "You can see that in their low stock allocations compared with the period of 2000 and before." He expects stocks will need a couple more good years before "the love affair will really be rekindled." What's Oaktree excited about now? Commercial real estate in secondary markets - raw land, finishing projects, distressed properties. [View news story]
The Stagnation Behind The Excellent Jobs Report [View article]
Are Banks Safe Enough? Risk Weighting, Regulatory Arbitrage, And Other Issues [View article]