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Aristiphones

Aristiphones
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  • Markets Trying To Stabilize Despite Official Rattle [View article]
    gotta work on the delivery...clearly the Fed needs some order so they can start issuing out single statements when they're done. this whole "here's my idea" stuff is really ridiculous. The Chairman has done a spectacular job...someone on that Committee needs to start writing his material stating as such as he had to with easily the worst Fed Chairman in American history and his predecessor...Alan Greenspan. "the Committee to save the world" would be well served if they simply understood themselves as just that "far more powerful if seen as a committee."
    May 27 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forex: Now What? [View article]
    proxy for the dollar. you really don't want to go anywhere near any of these currencies next week. these are not "investors" at all going "all in on Japan." these are SPECULATORS and they just got a lesson in how puny "hedging currency risk" can be. if the Nikkei were to crash...ala 1987 and 22% in a single day that yen...i do agree. would completely disintegrate. but more than likely you'll never see the bulk of that 85 billion again. the theory that "yields will plunge on news of full on BOJ QE" is just that...a theory. if it fails to work the check could bounce...yields hit say just 2% "and it will make Brazil of the 1980's look like child's play." that's called debt SERVICING costs...which currently consume 40% of all tax revenue. my guess is if that thing goes over 50% "it's over...here comes the hyper inflation."
    May 27 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forex: Now What? [View article]
    http://cfa.is/10ArsSX
    May 27 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Forex Review - What Next? [View article]
    the biggest owner by far of JGB's is London. if My Kuroda has just figured out how to blow up the second largest debt market in the world then obviously that's the first place to look for knock on effects. that will be the end of the euro zone "in a matter of weeks." Spain will exit, France will become the 51st in the American Union and Germany will...well, still be Germany. there is no "correct" way to devalue. using the template of "of what is this an instance" i would argue strongly for Japan to 'turn the radio up real loud to American rock and roll" and just "let it go" actually.
    May 27 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bear Move In The Yen Ending? [View article]
    two year? how about two days? "that tea kettle has been burning on the stove for quite some time now."
    May 27 01:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Week In FX Asia - Hot Money Booking Yen Profits [View article]
    giving new meaning to the term "perish or publish" in these here parts. "go long" bro. "go long that crazy thing."
    May 27 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    "and the market rallied strongly off all that empirical news." i will tell you simply why i move to treasuries this year: i was afraid. i have to look at MY risk tolerance here...i'm a speculator...i'm still speculating of course...only time will tell if i'm right. but obviously one does not approach the market as a "rational being" as you so rightly point out Mr. Leopard guy. "lot of emotion in these things." i think want Mr. Brochstein is trying to say is "taking the emotion out of investing can be a great way to save your hide." not that we can't get a repeat of the 90's of course...or even the 20's actually (9 percent economic growth without inflation for the latter. imagine that type of recovery!)
    May 27 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Under-Reported Aspects Of The S&P 500 Rally [View article]
    well...OBVIOUSLY..."you to ask what the Fed is up to first." is anyone saying interest increases are in the offing anytime soon? Obviously not. so sure...it's right to be cautious here...but you're not going to be stopped out of your trades because the Fed is going to go full on "1970's" here. in fact they're doing the opposite. we do need to LEARN what QE is of course. clearly it SHOULD BE deflationary...as it was in Japan which has zero commodites to "deflate" to begin with. "if it deflates in Japan it deflates in the USA"...although apparently "with a twist." hasn't actually done it much at all. Europe on the other hand is clearly deflating...MASSIVELY. i mean...truly...this is "the Commanding Heights" of the global economy for the Fed and Fed policy. they cannot "create growth" per se...but in conjunction with the biggest hot war effort in US history and the ability to drive interest rates to at or near zero "at will" then clearly...a huge amount of growth in theory can be "willed" into existence. "an exit strategy all its own" thus being created...while completely ignoring Wall Street? well, obviously the amount of financial capital currently flooding into the USA is probably the most in history "this money can be put to work immediately" in the form of hiring, investing in start ups, real estate speculations, the buying of muni debt...you name it...Wall Street can do it. "all financed by a couple hundred thousand active duty guys going to war for you." Memorial Day indeed....
    May 27 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unsteady As She Goes [View article]
    need a re-read of history here. starts with the industrial revolution and the USA's "histories of chronic depressions." gold standard was used to get money flowing again so that lending could proceed. that was replaced after World War II by a combination of the dollar becoming the world's reserve currency and "a forever war effort." the current one is surprisingly small actually...certainly relative to the task at hand...but far from inexpensive...certainly the most expensive sustained "hot" war effort in American history. clearly there are a multitude of ways of "financing" and we are engaging in the ultimate form of it right now (QE) ...at some point "only gold will be the option" (and your war will be very small then.) i'm on the fence actually though. i think the USA has a multitude of options right here...right now. the main goal needs to be get rid of unemployment. period. that's a policy option from the Feds...not from Wall Street which is "knee deep in taking down Japan" right now. i would be long Citigroup of course "once the dust settles." along with all those involved in the rebuilding effort "should Wall Street yet again succeed."
    May 26 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    i've skied that place. eh. Tahoe, Utah, Colorado....WAY better. they did have the Olympics there of course. pretty cool to have that of course but..crummy, wet Olympics as i recall. "northwest concrete" they call it. "lots of room to go long real estate out West." obviously the great play has been to buy the debt of real estate and not the real estate itself. "ain't no carrying cost there." talk about a cut throat business. you're going up against entire cities, farmland, California itself. the USA has truly perfected the art of real estate speculation. good luck.
    May 26 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    change in the energy used to drive the economy (away from oil...towards natural gas.) solar tech which can drive electricity rates to "at or near zero." meta-data which will revolutionize how "we" are in fact organized. internet security. affordable space travel. the list really is amazing. imagine if we cured cancer in the next year or so. lots of reasons to be a "disinflationist" here which is VERY bullish for equities going forward. i think what you bring up are great points though. we had a lot of volatility in 1996 and 1998...which led to a HUGE market palooza in 1999 with a speculative top in 2000.
    May 26 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    rates are not going up anytime soon...certainly not in the next 5 years minimum...maybe not the next 50. and i'm being deadly serious when i say this. we may get 'tapering" of course...but we could also get PAPERING as well. in other words "the loss of both Japan and Europe is a MASSIVE set back to US recovery efforts." this CAN..though need not BE papered over...should the Fed wish it.
    May 26 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    of course "what would it look like if Chairman Bernanke knocked the rates on treasuries down to Japanese levels of around .25%" is a possibility as well. we are not Japan Alan...we already have MASSIVE amounts of resources, space, transportation assets...just assets period. creating an asset bubble in the first place in the USA is very hard to do here. i currently see threw which is quite impressive in my view. it would be a mistake as well for the Chairman to start "talking them down" but we shall see. obviously we want "transferrance" to the "real economy." we shall see. 'so many things are possible"...but we must get the message out...and be HEARD first. if that can be done...indeed "confirmation bias becomes an ASSET" then. (product development, apps, internet security, rule of law just to name a few become a priority. lest we forget it was a Federal Judge who allowed the internet to get out from under AT&T.) this is America not Japan. We can see yields even lower than this. FAR lower even.
    May 26 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Regains Control [View article]
    best in a while...hope you 're still post at ZH too. obviously i love this stuff..wish i had some real money to play with like you do. when New York hyperinflated Germany back in the early 20's that was the kick off to one of the greatest economic booms...and busts...in history. of course "American emerged victorious" but it was a rather...odd if not spectacular time. If Japan is about to be wiped off the map here...first off nothing personal and we're long only and believe short selling to be immoral and all that...but, i do pray for your success. the implications of a market crash in Japan next week are profound indeed however. clearly it goes a long way towards explaining a lot of the current...is it exuberance? irrationality i think is better. "that's a MASSIVE amount of demand" that would be missing from the market place should it occur. i have taken not that treasuries have dropped (a wee bit) in price and risen (a wee bit) in yield. needless to say "Japan is a WEE BIT of a buyer." hmmmm. i think many people will be "glued to their computer screens this weekend" pondering the implications/permutati... etc..etc. part of me says "the outcome is already not in doubt." that would be the French part of me. what's that French term for "i already know about the outcome but you do not but will soon find out"?
    May 25 05:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Bank Easing No Longer Causes Inflation...Or Does It? [View article]
    again...great article. i respond simply by saying "what is your risk?" in other words QE itself is a "program" and therefore it has parameters, metrics, defineable "do's and don'ts." so in evaluating its apparent spectacular success here and abroad the question does arise "is it fit for everybody?" i would argue rather than talking in terms of inflation we should talk in terms of "that depends" and go from there. we'll know a lot more vis a vis Japan next week.
    May 25 05:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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