Stocks And Gold: A Tale Of 2 Markets [View article]
gold and oil rise together because those are the markets the Fed keeps juicing "to make everything okay." equities rise because the actual economy is doing well and there is sound money to boot. To George W Bush's credit he fired two Secretary's of the Treasury and "had the man of the hour" when it came to Wall Streets addiction to a "worthless dollar." the dollar is not worthless now...indeed it is fast becoming surprisingly strong...and equities have been riding those coat tails going on four years now. is gold in a bubble? who knows. are Treasuries? to simply post an chart putting the S&P next to gold misses the VERY large point of "dividends" and "compounding." try a chart of treasuries vis a vis gold from '71 and you'll see gold sprinting ahead of the pack...only to be FAR surpassed as treasuries compound..and continue to compound...7% a year for over 30 years. this is by no means to devalue gold as an asset or an asset class. the fact of the matter is we are in a bull market for gold...and have been for some time now...and our Government is doing the BARE MINIMUM to provide comfort to investors...let alone savers. if they get a full on "Japanese scenario" then they'll be looking at a real catastrophe back in their homes states. all in the middle of war no less! hmmm. "you WILL miss that infantry when they're gone." anywho "we go with the economy we have not the one we wish we had" to paraphrase Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
if the housing market collapse "Japanese style" then clearly we won't be talking oil. Oil prices and the Fed have nothing in common with interest rates this low. Oil is a function of global demand...and the ability to meet that demand. So far we have the biggest back up in supplies in history...aka "a glut"...so while it's nice to think "wow! look at all that money out there" actually one could look at that and say "we're heading for an actual deflation instead of the phantom one this Chairman claims to be fighting." equities still look good to me...but not because oil prices are high but because "oil prices are about to collapse and wipe out the hot money once and for all." i would buy General Electric...among others...on anything "precipitous." (Exxon Mobil as well as they are the biggest player in the FUTURE of energy...namely natural gas.) i'm really struggling with muni debt as i fail to see how anything this Administration has done has been good for taxpayers...let alone job producers. I like New York muni debt obviously...as well as Connecticut....but i'd still be very picky. Texas and Wisconsin are now running solid surpluses...i think Pennsylvania and Alabama will be right behind them. "but we've got issues" nationally...and simply put they are not being addressed by this Administration...love this President and his story as i do. 2nd terms are usually where "hubris rears its ugly head." we are in the biggest war this country has fought since World War II...how is it going would you all say?
Deliverance Day: The New Middle East Of America By 2020? [View article]
this is a very well presented article and thanks for the contribution. i think you should ditch the whole "estimate reserves" thing because they're simply not factually accurate...in the case of North Dakota they had to raise the reserve estimates 100 fold...in one day. Having said that i don't think regulatory constraints are holding back production either. Pennsylvania will soon be sprinting ahead of New York which simply put "wants its people poor, barefoot and pregnant." No news there. Ohio and West Virginia are obviously right behind the "not stupid people of Pennsylvania"...and as these three States represent INDUSTRIAL concerns as well I think this bodes quite well for their economic prospects going forward. I love North Dakota...and the Dakotas and Upper mid-west in general. I would not be surprised that with the collapse of yet another Wall Street created property bubble to see these State's growth rates sprinting forward anyways as "they have resources to fall back on." this is not true of Lower Manhattan. One of those resources is the Bank of North Dakota...an area i hope you branch out into as you "explore" the resource extraction business.
Tesla Will Stay At The Top Of The Market For Now [View article]
We need better than "buy and hold." great article and I love the business...but this is the industry of "buy low sell high." I would follow this article up with a technical analysis of the equity itself. Thanks for the input...love this company going forward.
Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
well, normally we would be at the "cruising point" in an economic recovery as interest rates would be moderating, growth would be maturing and large cap growth would be posting up and "laying down some serious hoop." instead we have a "new normal" or "cramdowns for interest rates" which is causing interest rates to plunge, savings to soar and growth to slow dramatically. clearly the folks saying "QE is all about buying stocks" don't know what they're talking about. The ECONOMIC CYCLE (coupled with low interest rates) is all about buying stocks...but Colin has been a perma bear throughout and never owned any equities ever anyways so it's a convenient myth that he and so many others constantly peddle. Quite honestly...do not listen to these people...they're not even around the people that matter...let alone being those people. "Tacking" is what i've decided to do for this quarter...i've pulled in my horns looking for a pull back...the economy has never really "recovered" in a meaningful sense...not turning bearish on equities by any stretch of the imagination...but the goal is buy low sell high from the bullish perspective (and i am a bull) so i will be looking at hopefully a serious correction with which to reenter.
A New North American Shale Oil Champion [View article]
seems to me the world is fast becoming awash in oil and "NGL's." obviously i'm a big fan of the natural gas space because it goes directly from the production line to the consumer. and of course it is ten times cheaper than oil right now.
The AIG board has 3 options, says the company in a statement: 1) Take over the Starr (Greenberg) lawsuit against the U.S. 2) Stand in Greenberg's way (and likely face a lawsuit by him). 3) Allow Greenberg to move forward on AIG's behalf. "The (board) has fiduciary and legal obligations to the company and its shareholders to consider (Greenberg's demand) and respond in a fair, appropriate, and timely manner." (earlier) [View news story]
Actually i would argue "sue away." The Government gets a say in this matter. Shall we start with the fact that an overworked and underpaid Federal Judge will have to hear this case? Check. How about the fact that this case is knowingly frivolous? Check. Should we add that the money being asked is purely for the fact that enormous sums have been made by "the others" and for no other reason whatsover? check. And of course there are many other reasons to consider this entire endeavor a total waste of the Government dime. Having said that filing the suit does run the risk of having the Plaintiff demand court costs should they lose. 25 billion sounds about right for court costs to me. "And that would be the Government suing you now." Good luck not paying...
Midstream Assets Sales Reason To Buy Chesapeake [View article]
and still i find myself "Waiting in Vain" for a mass produced natural gas vehicle "to help support the price." why have that when you can have slick advertising saying how "your big oil and you're trying to get us to move beyond oil through battery technology." don't see those ad's anymore. oh well. http://bit.ly/10yiUjr
I must be getting nervous because you're my "go to guy" before i try and plow my mind through "good news scenarios." Obviously Citi is "throwing down the gauntlet" at the President and his re-election. I'm the last guy in the world to "rah rah" downsizing so i'll leave it at that. Merger Wednesday? that struck me as "from left field." Apple getting absolutely clobbered says to me "we're going over the cliff." PHEW! And that's just for starters! Obviously i want to know what's going on in the Middle East...good luck with that...so i will have to expect the worst and hope for the best there as well. i still believe my recovery thesis remains intact: interest rates at nil to zero, massive Federal spending, active and aggressive capital markets, "political certainty" in the sense that the election is now over. I also believe we're going through a once in a century energy transition away from oil and towards natural gas...and i think our Commander in Chief knows this, laid it out in his last State of the Union and is "going to make it happen." I think the Affordable Care Act is a BIG DEAL...this law which i support will now have to be funded...and this will be COSTLY. I'm not at all an expert in this field but my personal view is that while this my prove a drag on growth in the first quarter or two once that Puppy get's up and running it will be a BIG net positive for the economy. it has to get up and running first though and i think the "truthiness" of implementing the whole thing is only now being "explained" to our Commander in Chief. My personal view: "if it means a recession in the first two quarters blame Sandy and go for it" but that's just me. I REALLY think it imperative that the Democrats and Republicans work together to cobble together some type of "anything" vis a vis the Cliff. Washington only works when the two sides can agree on something...an agreement to start the political season...if done right...really is a positive in my view. a long shot...i agree. like i said...you're usually my first read when i'm trying to "figure it all out."
How Wind And Solar Power Are Polluting The Commons [View article]
the electrical grid is the hallmark of civilization? really? living OFF the grid is the hallmark of civilization not living on it. and how much energy "pollution" is caused just by the existence of the grid itself? i would say A LOT. when we already have natural gas as an alternative to power pretty much ever device and mechanical contrivance known to man...what are we waiting for?
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
here to stay? hehehehe. Microsoft can make a phone now. Intel can make a phone. What about Hewlett Packard should they be bought by Oracle as Larry Ellison has openly talked about? nothing is guaranteed in the cell phone business other than "the consumer is getting everything and then some" in the device...basically for free i might add. VZ's numbers were solid...we'll see how ATT's are. Softbank move is a big deal...BIG money. We'll see if Sony et al get back in the market as a consequence after being obliterated by Apple et al.
Valero Energy (VLO) suspends gasoline sales into the California spot market because of a product shortage resulting from a spate of refinery outages in the state. The unusual move from the largest U.S. refiner comes after accidents and maintenance have caused shutdowns at several California refineries, sending pump prices soaring. VLO -3.2% AH. [View news story]
this REEKS of political hooey. And as a consequence "the stock gets crushed." mess with American energy supplies at your peril Energy Companies!
Bernanke Responds To Congressman's Tough QE Questions: Examining The Exchange [View article]
i've had this argument on Zero Hedge for YEARS. This is what the Fed WANTS you to think...that somehow "the can manipulate a multi-trillion dollar market that is marked to market everyday...and trades 24/7 365." BULLSHIT.
Stocks And Gold: A Tale Of 2 Markets [View article]
Bernanke's Kryptonite [View article]
Deliverance Day: The New Middle East Of America By 2020? [View article]
Natural Gas Production Jumps To Fresh Record High, Prices Capped Below $4 [View article]
Tesla Will Stay At The Top Of The Market For Now [View article]
Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
Has Tesla Solved The Road Trip Problem? [View article]
A New North American Shale Oil Champion [View article]
The AIG board has 3 options, says the company in a statement: 1) Take over the Starr (Greenberg) lawsuit against the U.S. 2) Stand in Greenberg's way (and likely face a lawsuit by him). 3) Allow Greenberg to move forward on AIG's behalf. "The (board) has fiduciary and legal obligations to the company and its shareholders to consider (Greenberg's demand) and respond in a fair, appropriate, and timely manner." (earlier) [View news story]
Midstream Assets Sales Reason To Buy Chesapeake [View article]
Market Sector Rotation Underway [View article]
How Wind And Solar Power Are Polluting The Commons [View article]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Valero Energy (VLO) suspends gasoline sales into the California spot market because of a product shortage resulting from a spate of refinery outages in the state. The unusual move from the largest U.S. refiner comes after accidents and maintenance have caused shutdowns at several California refineries, sending pump prices soaring. VLO -3.2% AH. [View news story]
Bernanke Responds To Congressman's Tough QE Questions: Examining The Exchange [View article]