brent bankosky's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/2609201/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/868821/comments?source=feed#comment-9479931 9479931
It is possible that AAPL destroys the analyst estimates. We will see how the pre-order weekend sales look on Monday. Remember that iPhone 4 pre-orders were 600,000, iPhone 4S pre-orders were 1 million. Anything north of 1 million for iPhone 5 in pre-orders will be considered a success. I am looking for 1.5 million pre-orders which is in line with previous numbers which is a knock it out of the ball park number. ]]> Fri, 14 Sep 2012 23:27:01 -0400
It is possible that AAPL destroys the analyst estimates. We will see how the pre-order weekend sales look on Monday. Remember that iPhone 4 pre-orders were 600,000, iPhone 4S pre-orders were 1 million. Anything north of 1 million for iPhone 5 in pre-orders will be considered a success. I am looking for 1.5 million pre-orders which is in line with previous numbers which is a knock it out of the ball park number. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/821241/comments?source=feed#comment-8643041 8643041 Wed, 22 Aug 2012 03:25:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/814201/comments?source=feed#comment-8507271 8507271 Fri, 17 Aug 2012 13:22:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/768511/comments?source=feed#comment-7976831 7976831 Wed, 01 Aug 2012 08:05:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/760071/comments?source=feed#comment-7890561 7890561 Sun, 29 Jul 2012 10:50:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/739481/comments?source=feed#comment-7660061 7660061 Mon, 23 Jul 2012 08:52:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/738041/comments?source=feed#comment-7650111 7650111
I am not confident that CMG can hit their numbers with the impact of food cost inflation without significant price increases which they have indicated would not happen this year.

Overall, I agree with your recommendation.]]> Sun, 22 Jul 2012 20:16:40 -0400
I am not confident that CMG can hit their numbers with the impact of food cost inflation without significant price increases which they have indicated would not happen this year.

Overall, I agree with your recommendation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/737981/comments?source=feed#comment-7634741 7634741
That being said, I don't see AAPL going below $560 on a minor earnings miss at $10 EPS vs. consensus at $10.37 because at a 12.65 TTM PE multiple which is approximately the lowest that AAPL has traded at over the past few years would still give a $560 price. That 12.65 TTM PE multiple is important to remember in the event that AAPL falls after earnings. It is highly unusual to breach that TTM PE multiple, but could happen intraday.

I think that AAPL will report revenues north of $38 billion and EPS of over $11 per share based mostly on the strength of the iPad and Mac sales. My actual estimates are below:

28.5 million iPhones (based on 2.7 million Verizon iPhones sold which is an 18.5% decline vs. Q1 of 3.2 million)

20 million iPads (based on 11.3 million iPads in Q1 and only 2 weeks of sales for iPad 3 in Q1) - in line with Needam's estimates
4.5 million Macs (vs. consensus estimate of 4.3 million) - some strength based on late Q3 Mac refresh and Mac market share increases reported in the press

6.6 million iPods (vs. consensus estimate of 6.6 million iPods) - decline from 7.7 million iPods in Q1

Q3 revenue of $39 billion vs. $39.2 billion in Q2 and EPS $12 in Q3 vs. $12.30 in Q2.
]]> Sun, 22 Jul 2012 08:57:42 -0400
That being said, I don't see AAPL going below $560 on a minor earnings miss at $10 EPS vs. consensus at $10.37 because at a 12.65 TTM PE multiple which is approximately the lowest that AAPL has traded at over the past few years would still give a $560 price. That 12.65 TTM PE multiple is important to remember in the event that AAPL falls after earnings. It is highly unusual to breach that TTM PE multiple, but could happen intraday.

I think that AAPL will report revenues north of $38 billion and EPS of over $11 per share based mostly on the strength of the iPad and Mac sales. My actual estimates are below:

28.5 million iPhones (based on 2.7 million Verizon iPhones sold which is an 18.5% decline vs. Q1 of 3.2 million)

20 million iPads (based on 11.3 million iPads in Q1 and only 2 weeks of sales for iPad 3 in Q1) - in line with Needam's estimates
4.5 million Macs (vs. consensus estimate of 4.3 million) - some strength based on late Q3 Mac refresh and Mac market share increases reported in the press

6.6 million iPods (vs. consensus estimate of 6.6 million iPods) - decline from 7.7 million iPods in Q1

Q3 revenue of $39 billion vs. $39.2 billion in Q2 and EPS $12 in Q3 vs. $12.30 in Q2.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/727631/comments?source=feed#comment-7489421 7489421
I wouldn't be surprised at all if your $285 target is hit at the end of the year. ]]> Tue, 17 Jul 2012 22:41:26 -0400
I wouldn't be surprised at all if your $285 target is hit at the end of the year. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/727581/comments?source=feed#comment-7484651 7484651
BAC should end the year over $10 unless we see macroeconomic conditions worsen. ]]> Tue, 17 Jul 2012 20:15:45 -0400
BAC should end the year over $10 unless we see macroeconomic conditions worsen. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/720881/comments?source=feed#comment-7397691 7397691
All in all, I think that BAC will beat estimates of 15 cents and get back into the high $8s to low $9s and then will re-evaluate the situation. Last Q, $10 was resistance and then the stock plummeted after earnings to close in the mid-$8s for earnings week. I think that we will see the opposite effect as banks run through August since mortgage originations could be stronger than anticipated. ]]> Sun, 15 Jul 2012 10:39:12 -0400
All in all, I think that BAC will beat estimates of 15 cents and get back into the high $8s to low $9s and then will re-evaluate the situation. Last Q, $10 was resistance and then the stock plummeted after earnings to close in the mid-$8s for earnings week. I think that we will see the opposite effect as banks run through August since mortgage originations could be stronger than anticipated. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/710151/comments?source=feed#comment-7218881 7218881 Mon, 09 Jul 2012 21:33:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/695901/comments?source=feed#comment-6988511 6988511 Mon, 02 Jul 2012 09:07:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/694331/comments?source=feed#comment-6967481 6967481 Sun, 01 Jul 2012 08:43:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/694301/comments?source=feed#comment-6967401 6967401 Sun, 01 Jul 2012 08:36:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/694821/comments?source=feed#comment-6967321 6967321 Sun, 01 Jul 2012 08:32:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/694662/comments?source=feed#comment-6967301 6967301 Sun, 01 Jul 2012 08:28:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/694071/comments?source=feed#comment-6964411 6964411 Sun, 01 Jul 2012 01:42:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/693941/comments?source=feed#comment-6964011 6964011 Sun, 01 Jul 2012 00:57:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/694081/comments?source=feed#comment-6963971 6963971 Sun, 01 Jul 2012 00:51:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/694201/comments?source=feed#comment-6963921 6963921 Sun, 01 Jul 2012 00:46:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/693351/comments?source=feed#comment-6963831 6963831 Sun, 01 Jul 2012 00:39:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/693351/comments?source=feed#comment-6962961 6962961 Sat, 30 Jun 2012 23:19:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/693601/comments?source=feed#comment-6962941 6962941 Sat, 30 Jun 2012 23:17:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/693791/comments?source=feed#comment-6962921 6962921 Sat, 30 Jun 2012 23:14:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/694021/comments?source=feed#comment-6962911 6962911 Sat, 30 Jun 2012 23:11:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/694151/comments?source=feed#comment-6962871 6962871 Sat, 30 Jun 2012 23:07:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/693581/comments?source=feed#comment-6937051 6937051 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 18:03:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/663981/comments?source=feed#comment-6920091 6920091 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 11:13:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/686591/comments?source=feed#comment-6838801 6838801
Look to independent research firms without an investment banking side to find a more balanced analysis of value for FB and for that matter all other companies. ]]> Wed, 27 Jun 2012 08:59:03 -0400
Look to independent research firms without an investment banking side to find a more balanced analysis of value for FB and for that matter all other companies. ]]>