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Sirius XM Bulls Anticipate Positive Q3 Results

Here is my take. I expect the SP at 80 cents before the CC and this time I don't think it will go back , it might run even higher, bc my guess is this time could be a "breakthrough" and we could see 1 $ at the end of the year. Whether we could hold that or go back again depends on the 4q. If everything pans out well, we will not see a R/S, but this shouldn't be a problem anyway.
A key factor is the overall economy and unemployment. The economy has turned the corner but unemployment is still growing and rather sooner than later we will need rehiring. If this isn't going to happen in the next 6 month or so we might see a double dip in the market and in that case Sirius will get hit too.
To avoid that we need more stimulus, another cash for clunkers would be nice, otherwise all the billions already spend could have been spend in vain.

Negative Media Attacks Plague Sirius XM Radio

I do agree with Brandon, but I have to admit there is still a long and winding road ahead for Sirius, nevertheless I am confident and we just need to be patient. I do not want to repeat what has already been said, but would like to offer a different view. Bashers often consider Sirius as a luxury item or even a total waste of money. Let's think about it, 15 $ a month is a luxury item. First of all the amount itself is not worth to give it a thought and second of all most consumer waste a lot more money absolutely unnecessary. Many folks could save hundreds on their utilities by just using their brain or think about the gas money spend or the 29.99 % interest rate on the credit card bill, I guess you see what I mean.
Then there are guys and gals who pay 10 $ a month in order to get 5 jokes send to their cell or what about ringtones or the ridiculous expensive plans and rollover minutes ......
I could go on and on but I don't want to bore you all, my point is there are a lot of things we pay for without getting much in return and IMHO there is alot of crap/waste or luxury items we could get rid of and I did, but Sirius is definitely not one of them, on the contrary you get a lot in return for a fair price.

Sirius Radio: Glowing or About to Burn Up?

Hi, thanks for your comments about the skydock, got it .
A lot of the negative articles/posts mention the unemployment and recession and say that people will cancel because they can't afford a luxury item like SatRad anymore.
This is the most ridiculous argument I've ever heard. First of all a Porsche, an Armani suit or a Gucci handbag is a luxury item and of course every kind of jewelry. Second of all, if you try to cut back, consider to get rid of your expensive data plans or your cell phones at all, pay off your credit cards to avoid 29.99 % interest and most people could save hundreds of $ on utilities by using common sense instead having the A/C running full power while they are gone for the weekend or the sprinkler running during a rain shower etc. I could go on for hours , but I guess you get the picture.
When we get to the point where people cancel Sirius because they need the 15 $ for something else, I guess this will be the day when we are really in trouble .

Sirius Radio: Glowing or About to Burn Up?

Hi Jerrold, good response, I like the facts stated by you much better than calling the guy names, because that doesn't help anybody, even if I have to admit I understand the feelings.
Anyway, there is one thing I don't get , the SkyDock. If an I-phone user puts it in a SkyDock, he or she would be able to listen to their downloads or internet radio like Pandorra etc. for free. So why should someone subscribe to Sirius or even worse what would keep existing subscribers of canceling the service ?
This could be devastating for Sirius Investors like me, so I hope I am wrong about that.
Any comment would be appreciate.


On Aug 24 01:49 PM Jerrold Williams wrote:

> It is getting to be really funny how people love to discuss the negative
> about SIRIUS XM. When the stock was really low, thse "experts" say
> stay away. They are going bankrupt, etc... Now, I have made over
> 100% on this stock in the last 3 months or so, and I hear " can’t
> make fundamental sense out of a stock that has doubled in 3 months,
> is struggling at the core, and has more debt than it knows what to
> do with.: Are you kidding me, you see no reason why SIRIUS XM may
> have a better future than it did the last 12 months or so? Stock
> reflects the future prospects not the past...
> First, they have improved their debt situation, it is still there
> but no threat of bankruptcy. They have issued bonds that will save
> millions.
> Second, they are dependent on the auto industry, so a spkie in auto
> sales will equal increased subscribers. ever hear of cash for clunkers?
>
> Third, net losses in subs have been decreasing the last two reports
> and we may see a positive number this coming quarter.
>
> fourth...a likely huge boost to sirius xm capable devices with Sky
> dock. Last I heard about 14 million iphone and ipod touches out there...A
> whole new market to be tapped into? hmm, any of them would like to
> get Howard Stern, mlb, football, baseball, oprah, etc...and oh and...commercial
> free unedited music nationwide...
> Need i say more? The stock price reflects their prospect for the
> future not what the numbers said in the biggest recession of our
> life, and right after a merger....Not everyone can see potential
> in stocks and make big money...You obviously can not...you .wait
> until the companies make a lot of money and have great fundamentals...then
> buy the overpriced stock? I buy before the fundamentals start to
> show and double, triple, etc... my money!
> When they turn a profitable quarter, which will be soon the stock
> price is about at least $2.00 you will say...hmmm, now I should buy...good
> company..subscribers have increased, ipod/iphone products have sold
> well.....THEN I WILL SELL TO PEOPLE LIKE YOU...AFTER MAKING 2000%
> PROFIT!

Understanding the 'Q' Recovery

Jonathan, I agree with everything you said. I also invest mostly in energy and commodities and play a little with the tranportation sector.
Anyway, one thing I am not so sure is the Euro-USD, because the problems on the other side of the pond are no different from over here, I am from Germany and know things over there aren't good and probably will even go worse , maybe even worse than here in the US. My point, while I agree the USD will get weaker , I don't see the Euro becoming stronger, hence I don't see 2 $ for the Euro, in my humble opinion I guess it will be between 1.25 and 1.50 for quite some time.
Petra


On Aug 19 09:03 AM Jonathan Christopher wrote:

> Recovery? What recovery? We are in the eye of a hurricane, and the
> windwall is heading in our direction. We have the following things
> to consider:
>
> 1. There is very little excess spending or borrowing capacity in
> the US Consumer - Who comprise 70% of the GDP.
> 2. We are now a service economy and must sell our services overseas
> to those economies that are expanding - and those are the NATURAL
> RESOURCE rich economies: Canada, Saudi Arabia, The Emirates, Brazil,
> Nigeria, Australia, etc. To do that our cost must drop, and the US
> government is doing just that, by devaluing the dollar.
> When the dollar gets to about $2/Euro, and $1.20/100Yen, we will
> start to get a recovery.
> 3. The stock market recovery in the US and Europe is a Bear Market
> Rally. The PE ratio of about 40 in Europe and 17 in the US needs
> to drop to about 7 in the US, (the traditional market low PE) and
> dividend yields of about 4% (versus the current 2%).
> 4. This drop in the value of the dollar and in the value of stocks
> will devastate individual's net worth and cause oil and commodity
> prices to skyrocket. Since we are the world's breadbasket, US farmers
> and food producers will do well. However, most of us will not. (at
> least not initially)
> 5. However I am an OPTIMIST, and am investing in commodity producers
> outside the US, and holding the MAXIMUM debt I can safely service
> (at fixed interest rates).
> SUMMARY:
> Decreasing value of the dollar overseas.
> Increasing Commodity prices
> Decreasing value of the doller inside the USA
> High Inflation (same as above)
>
> One of the best opportunities in the past decade to make tons of
> money.

Leveraged ETF Ban Spreading Like the Flu

May I ask something. I do hold shares of SSO, because I saw this as an investment in the S&P 500. Regarding to this article and most of the posters it seems to be a bad decision.
Could someone please explain and advise .
Thanks a lot
Daniela

SEC Makes a Move on Naked Short Selling: Too Little, Too Late for Sirius

Personally I don't like shorts ( naked or dressed ), if you want to sell a stock fine, but you have to own it first. Let's assume you are in the market to buy a new car, you go to the dealership, negotiate etc. and finally put the cash on the table. What do you expect next ? Right you want to leave in your new car, or would you be o.k. if the dealer tells you " Sorry man I don't have a car for you I always sell short " ?

This Rally Is Nearing Resistance Levels

Interesting comments. I am 50% long and 50% cash at this moment and don't think this is a great time to add, but I will sell some puts.
Maybe the market will improve , but the economy certainly won't any time soon. Unemployment will rise not only in the US but in Europe too and won't peak for another 12 to 18 month. The housing market is not out of the woods yet and CRE will get much worse, but at the same time shares of homebuilders are up 30% or even 40% in just 3 days. WHY ?
As for INTEL, they actually had a loss of more than 1 bil. $, bc. of a fine imposed by the EU for their illegal sales practice. Analysts ignored that as a one time charge, however if they stop these sales tactics they will sell much less or if they continue, the fines will continue too . BTW right now Intel is banned from any federal,state or local goverment business in the EU until this is settled.

Commercial Paper Market Yielding Important Clues to Health of Overall U.S. Economy

Doesn't that mean the economy is still not in recovery mode and we are not going to see the S+P 500 go up to 1000 or 1200 any time soon ? Maybe it is just the opposite and we are going down to 800 or even lower. Anyway, the reason why I ask is, I just saw on Fox some expert talking about much better earnings in the 2. Q. and they were talking about several hundred percent better earnings, esp. in industrials, consumer and tech.
What do they know what you don't ?

Oh, So Now There Are No Green Shoots?

Interesting article and comments. Maybe someone can help me out here. I think the market will pull back in the second half of the year and then could go up again early 2010, provided the economy gets back on track. Having said that, I already sold my financials,insurances and switched to energy and metals and have about 40 % in cash.
Furthermore I sold covered calls to most of my longs in order to have at least some protection. I don't like to go short, but maybe that is a female thing.
Anyway, my question to you all is, do you think this is a good strategy or what else should I do to get through this crisis ?
BTW, I consider myself an investor not trader and I do not plan to need/use the money in the next 5 years.
Any comment is appreciate, thank you.
Petra

Is Sirius XM Facing a Nasdaq Delisting?

Last time I checked the R/S was postponed to May 2010, at least this is what I was told. Anyway, are there any facts/news the R/S will take place sooner and when could that be ?

Banks Curtail Lending as Rising Credit Card Delinquencies Loom

As a German-American I have the advantage of knowing both systems pretty good and can do business on both sides of the pond.
You do better here as an investor, getting better rates, less fees and pay way less taxes. On the other hand as a consumer you do better overseas. Charging different interest rates or fees because of credit score is illegal, called discrimination, hence you either get a loan , mortgage or a credit card or you don't get it , but you never will pay a higher rate etc. because of your risk ( that goes for insurance too). Moreover mortgage rates are lower, I pay 4.3 % and that was years ago when the rates were above 6 % here, now you can get a mortgage below 4 %, but you have to qualify and that is the point. German banks lost bil. on US loans and CDS, but almost never on a mortgage,car or consumer loans.
I just thought some of you find that interesting to know and maybe some of you even agree that being more restrict in the first place but also fair and not discriminating would have saved us a lot of pain.

Sirius Sell-Off: The Russell Index Effect

You really think delisting from the lowest Index means nothing? You really believe a sell-off of 400 mil. shares isn't panicking ? The stock lost 30 % in less than a minute, for crying out loud. Who is going to buy that stock now ?

Sirius Bond Offering Success Is Hard for Some to Swallow

jswede. Your comment would have been taken seriously if you hadn't called the author a borderline criminal and if your math had been accurate. The yield is not 11.25 % but 11.85 % and that is still much lower than your 13 %, let alone the 15 % they have to pay right now.


On Jun 26 10:28 AM jswede wrote:

> "Not only was the 11.25% interest rate far below the rumored expectation
> of 13%"
>
> $525mil par amount was raised at 95 cents on the dollar. That's $500mil
> raised.
>
> So even though they raised only $500mil, they are paying the 11.25%
> rate on $525mil, and even though they raised only $500mil, they have
> to pay back $525mil in '13.
>
> Put that together and it's a 13% yield - and a 13% cost to the borrower
> on the funds raised.
>
> Your lack of understanding borders on criminal.

Why Ford Is a Goner

Of course Ford is a goner. They don't build better cars, just not as bad as GM or Chrysler. They have bil. of losses and debt, again just not as bad as the other two. They don't stand a chance against a renewed GM ( Chrysler and Fiat is a different story ) and if you look at Ford Europe for example, they loosing over there too. Now Gm-Europe gets a shot in the arm too, same story and Ford will loose everywhere.