I am a fundamentally oriented value investor who complements this with technical analysis to help optimize price points selected for buying and selling. I like companies with * significant price to free cash flow * high return on invested capital and return on equity * book-adjusted earnings or cash returns exceeding 10% In terms of geographical focus, I am willing to invest in most markets worldwide. I am skeptical of most Chinese companies trading outside of Hong Kong.
I'm a private, full time trader interested in both long and short ideas. My training and background are in engineering including a decade of consulting engineering practice. I've since switched over to investing/trading which I've done full time for 15+ years and to which I bring a contrarian style. I've also recently become interested in writing and have published editorials at Forbes, PJM, and a few legacy newspapers.
I am an analyst and 2017 Level III Candidate in the CFA Program that has gained experience in the investment industry through positions as a proprietary trader and a portfolio management administrator. I began contributing to Seeking Alpha as a way to share my thoughts on the biopharmaceutical industry. I discussed ways to minimize risk in biopharmaceutical investing through conservative pipeline valuation and balance sheet analysis to identify companies presenting a compelling valuation to potential investors. I also touched on ways to apply knowledge of the markets to improve personal finance. My pieces included either stock-specific analysis or general biopharmaceutical investing discussion through my Biotech Weekly blog. My research appeared on the websites of CNBC, Seeking Alpha, Reuters, Google Finance, Morningstar, NASDAQ, and MarketWatch.
Note: Articles and comments are my own opinions, are not related to the opinions of my employer, and should not be considered investment advice. Make sure to do your own due diligence before making an investment decision. Thanks!
My name is Colin Lloyd. I have been following the ebb and flow of financial markets for more than 30 years. I have worked for brokers and asset managers in commodities, money markets, capital markets, equities and foreign exchange.
My interests include, but are not confined too, geopolitics, central banking, energy policy, regulatory change, demographics, technology and capital flows.
About this news letter
I started writing this news letter to provide longer term macroeconomic commentary and guidance for financial market investors. I hope it will provide some new insights and provoke debate.
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Hello, my name is Bernardo Teixeira and welcome to my page! I'm currently an undergraduate student of Northeatern University majoring in Finance and Computer Science. My investment focus is majorly in value plays, and sometimes in portfolio strategy and macro trends. Since I'm originally from Brazil and I have lived in China for a few years I have a special passion for emerging market equities and investments outside of the United States. I'm currently following three industries; insurance, semiconductors, and airlines. As always please let me know if you have any comments about my articles!
In order to value a company we usually apply three different types of valuation:
1. Comparable Valuation: If we identify a company has enough comparable companies (usually around 4) and their corporate structures are similar to each other than we would likely value this company through a comparable valuation. In our opinion a comps val is not conclusive enough to know whether a company is being mis-priced by the market, but it provides enough information as to understand which stock of the bunch is the cheapest. Below is one good example of a comparable company and one bad one.
A very good example of a stock which we would rely on a comps val is Delta (DAL). Delta is in an industry which there is little product differentiation and airlines have similar corporate structures. In contrast Microsoft (MSFT) is a company which I probably would not use a comps val, because there is no other company that sells the same exact product line as MSFT.
In our comps valuation we use two different sets of ratios. Equity multiples such as P/E, P/S, P/B and PEG, and Enterprise multiples such as EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF and EV/ Gross Cash Flow. We try to have all our ratios in a forward looking manner using average analyst expectations whenever possible. We also might eventually exclude ratios from the calculation that are not conclusive enough or that have a high dispersion among players of the industry.
2. Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: After completing our comps val my next step is to run a DCF valuation of the company. Usually our preference for a DCF is to not effectively predict what is going to happen in the future, but instead identify how the market is pricing the stock and stipulate three scenarios assumptions. These scenarios are used to estimate what are different analyst expecting from this company and whether those expectations are realistic or not. The bull case scenario reflects the highest analyst expectation, the base case the average, and the bear case the lowest. We also adjust margins accordingly as to reflect the opinion of analyst. For stocks that have a wide coverage this usually a good measure of the market's view of the company. In general we are only long companies that have a very attractive risk/reward ratio, in which the bull case fairly outstrip the base and the bear case is not significantly negative.
Another assumption we like to make is concerning the discount rates. In our opinion relying on CAPM to calculate the expected rate of returns is a very poor choice. There are many problems with CAPM that are not worth mentioning here. Instead we believe that using a base 8% discount rate subjectively adjusted by it the riskiness of the stock is a better approximation of the discount rate.
3. Return on Invested Capital Valuation: Another type of valuation that we like to use is the ROIC method. I'm still developing a model that can be successfully deployed for Seeking Alpha articles. Once I have it complete I will update our assumptions on our methodology.
Companies that we follow: Ping An (PNGAY), PICC (PPCCY), Copa Holdings (CPA), Cameco (CCJ), Qualcomm (QCOM), Noble Energy (NBL), Delta (DAL), Arotech (ARTX).
I've spent considerable time working for a registered independent advisor, doing work such as structuring client accounts, researching stocks/bonds, and performing due diligence on external managers. My career shifted when I took a role at a major investment bank, where I've supported the front office in mortgage-backed securities and derivatives. I now work in an oversight and risk capacity, identifying areas of risk and control weakness when it comes to regulatory compliance. As for trading style, I lean towards small/mid-cap companies, as I believe they have the potential for greater risk-adjusted returns. I'm firmly contrarian, and look to buy out-of-favor equities that have an opportunity to revalue upwards in the medium term.
I am a lawyer and assistant professor living in New York. My work focuses on the intersection of energy policy and the economic feasibility of energy pathways. In addition to Seeking Alpha, my articles on renewable energy have been published by media sites including US News & World Report, Newsweek, The Huffington Post, and IFL Science. From a financial perspective I cover a variety of energy companies ranging from renewable energy to fossil fuels. While I discuss legal issues relating to these companies on occasion, my articles do not provide legal advice and nothing that I write on Seeking Alpha should be considered as such.
I focus on the microcap space (market cap below $250 million) because it is one of the most inefficient and "alpha rich" areas of the global equity market, which provides the greatest opportunity to generate alpha through fundamental research.
I use a bottom up, investment decision making process. The ideal investment has an asymmetric risk/return profile with a limited downside (e.g. high net cash balance, strong cash flow) and significant upside (e.g. asset value extraction, overlooked business model transition).
Microcaps are particularly attractive to the following groups:
Activist investors. A small absolute investment (on a dollar basis) can be leveraged into a relatively large position (as a percentage of shares outstanding), which provides a greater ability to demand change.
Private equity firms. The persistent microcap discount can be “arbed away” via an LBO with the new owners accruing all of the gains for themselves. The small absolute size of many microcaps on an EV basis significantly expands the number of firms able to pursue this strategy.
This inefficiency exists for several reasons.
A lack of analyst coverage due to lower trading volume (less soft dollars from HF/MF), the global settlement that permanently severed the link between research/banking and the rise in electronic trading/decimalization. Moreover, none of these trends are likely to reverse for the foreseeable future (if ever).
A lack of institutional products given the natural capacity constraint for new/existing managers.
An inability to effectively implement a passive approach (e.g. ETFs, index funds) due to the lower liquidity and wider bid/ask spread. However, each of these obstacles can be overcome by using a combination of electronic trading tools (e.g. algos) and patience in building a positive size.
Inaccurate and persistent misconceptions about microcaps (e.g. they are riskier than larger cap stocks).
I currently trade for my personal account but would like to move into the investment management side of the industry.
Previously spent a year interning at a hedge fund running a bottom-up, long-short, strategy. Attracted to businesses with compelling risk/rewards and impressive value creators trading at significant discounts to a cash-flow based view of intrinsic value.
Over 30 years of investing in individual stocks. Extensive business experience with small to mid-size companies, including as CEO. Many hundreds of blog posts on financial and economic matters since 2008. Focus on value with catalysts for upside price action. Background as a physician and pharmaceutical inventor and entrepreneur, however focus now is global and involves almost all economic categories.
Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks is a research service for value investors seeking value stocks with a huge gap between price and intrinsic value, leaning towards deep value balance sheet bargains (i.e. buying assets at a discount e.g. net cash stocks, net-nets, low P/B stocks, sum-of-the-parts discounts) and wide moat stocks (i.e. buying earnings power at a discount in great companies like "Magic Formula" stocks, high quality businesses, hidden champions and wide moat compounders).
Those who believe that the pendulum will move in one direction forever—or reside at an extreme forever— eventually will lose huge sums. Those who understand the pendulum's behavior can benefit enormously. ~ Howard Marks
Investment ideas for Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks are generated from screens, insider trades, 13Fs, fund manager letters, analyst reports, blogs and forums. The initial ideas sourced are subsequently evaluated using The Cheapness-Safety-Quality (CSQ) framework, applying customized investment checklists to ask the right questions of the investments in question, along the dimension of cheapness, safety and quality. Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks' value investing philosophy borrows from the wisdom of value investing gurus, using both quantitative screens and qualitative inputs to filter the global stock markets for investment ideas.
I'm currently an investment professional. In my spare time I invest in my personal account, focusing on event-driven and obscure equities, where I believe large mispricings exist.
I focus on writing about individual stocks, frequently in the financial industry. I work as a mid-level executive in the insurance industry on the portfolio management side. I'm an experienced stock investor, and I'm eager to share my industry expertise and what I've learned about investing with other Seeking Alpha users.
Check out my YouTube channel where I explain economics and have conversations with my viewers about where I see the investment landscape going in the future. The channel name is Alex Pitti.
I write a few articles per week which highlight my best ideas. I answer all comments on my articles in the first 2 days after they are published.
It seems that my readers enjoy my articles on social media companies such as Twitter, Facebook, and Google. I also do interviews such as when I interviewed the head scientists at SeaWorld.
I like to take the contrarian position on stocks. I tend to write about the stocks I own more often then the ones I don't take a position in. I usually own 5-10 stocks.
Follow me if you enjoy reading about any of these stocks or like to hear an original opinion backed by facts which cuts through the BS that sometimes exists in the mainstream financial press.
The author is a former hedge fund trader now working as an Independent Trader, Consultant and author of the Panick Value Research Report. The Panick Report is a newsletter and alert service focused on undervalued high yield preferred stock issues and some undervalued micro cap equities. Sign up in the Dividends section of the Seeking Alpha Marketplace to receive exclusive subscriber articles, daily sector updates, advance drafts of public articles and more. Email email@example.com for more information. See also my Panick Value Research Report Facebook site for tips on upcoming articles.
We are a team of market professionals with 18 years combined experience as investment advisers and stock analysts. We specialize in the transportation sector (rails, air freight, ports, shipping and logistics). We use our deep knowledge about this space to help readers earn higher risk adjusted returns. In addition, we have 11 years of experience trading options and use these to generate extra income. A client with a $100,000 dollar portfolio can expect an extra $3,000 to $8,000 from these investments.
Motto: I invest in undervalued (i.e. cheap) well-established companies trading at a below market multiple.
The companies that I invest in are large stable companies with proven track records. My goal is the highest total return possible with the least amount of risk.
Professional Background: I am a healthcare practitioner with extensive experience in the pharmaceutical sector. I have a passion for investing honed over the past twenty years through various market cycles.
“The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.”
– Charlie Munger
“People err who think my art comes easily to me. I assure you, dear friend, nobody has devoted so much time and thought to compositions as I. There is not a famous master whose music I have not industriously studied through many times.”
- Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong."
- John Maynard Keynes
My time frame for looking at an investment would generally be between two to five years.
Steinway Capital Inc is a New York based proprietary investment research firm with a focus on opportunistic long-term investments. The firm focuses on spin-off related investment strategies, distressed and post distressed investments, and event driven special situation investments. Steinway Capital Inc. pursues no fixed methodology and is selective in its ongoing coverage targets.
Prior to founding Steinway Capital in 2004, Christopher Schulz was for 5 years a Senior Analyst at Horizon Asset Management Inc/New York (a $15 billion asset management firm with hedge funds, mutual funds and managed accounts run by Murray Stahl and Steven Bregman, now known as Horizon Kinetics LLC). At Horizon, he was in charge of The Spin-Off Report, which during his tenure gathered a cumulative track record of 120%. Steinway Capital Inc advises institutional investors, family offices and self-directed affluent investors through written research and verbal consultation, and does not manage client assets.
In addition to his Wall Street advisory activity, Christopher Schulz has 7 years of operational background in hotel audit at Sheraton, market research for Isopublic/Gallup, and various chemical laboratory testing/quality control assignments at Leica Geosystems, Rhone-Poulenc and SFS Intec/SFS Holding.
We have investment positions in some of the securities we write about, and our positions are subject to change at any time. Nothing here is to be deemed a solicitation for investment nor investment advice. Please read our full legal disclaimer available on our blog. http://lazarusip.blogspot.com/
Brad Thomas is a research analyst and he currently writes weekly for Forbes and Seeking Alpha where he maintains research on many publicly-listed REITs. In addition, Thomas is the Senior Analyst at iREIT Forbes and Editor of the Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter.
Thomas has also been featured in Forbes Magazine, Kiplinger’s, US News & World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, and Fox Business. He was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014 (as ranked by TipRanks) and he is currently writing a book on the legendary investor Donald Trump.
Thomas has co-authored a book (The Intelligent REIT Investor) that is available on Amazon.
Thomas received a Bachelor of Science degree in Business/Economics from Presbyterian College where he played basketball. He resides in South Carolina with his wife and kids.
I have over 17 years experience in the hedge fund industry working as a Portfolio Manager, Domestic Equity Analyst and Trader. I was the Portfolio Manager of a domestic Hedged Equity product with gross assets that peaked over 1 Billion dollars, and I have over 18 years experience generating both long and short ideas in domestic equities. I am a fundamental, bottoms up, value investor in long investments, and catalyst oriented short investor. I like to employ technical analysis as a balance to my fundamental work, and also as a risk management characteristic to my overall investment philosophy. I am currently investing my own capital in a similar manner I employed while working in the hedge fund industry.
David White is a software/firmware/marketing professional and a long time investor. He has worked in the networking field, the semiconductor equipment field, the mainframe computer field, and the pharmaceutical/scientific instrumentation field. He has bachelor's degrees in bioresource sciences and biochemistry from U.C. Berkeley. He is a former Ph.D. student in biochemistry. He has done significant graduate work in EECS and business at Stanford (through SITN) and UC Santa Cruz. He was awarded a Certificate in Advanced Software Systems (about 1/3 of an MS in EECS) by the Stanford Computer Science Department. He also took most of Stanford's undergraduate Computer Science curriculum.
2nd Market Capital Advisory specializes in the analysis and trading of real estate securities. Through a selective process and consideration of market dynamics, we aim to construct portfolios for rising streams of dividend income and capital appreciation.I am an investment adviser representative of 2nd Market Capital Advisory Corporation.
Analyst and Fund Manager with almost 20 years investment experience. Coverage includes a variety of industries, with a focus on technology.
Particularly focused on value stocks, poorly understood or under-followed situations, and contrarian perspectives.
Primarily invest in special situations with value that is poorly understood or not fully appreciated, or where we believe there is a highly asymetric risk/reward profile. Also look for long/short ideas in mid/larger cap names where we believe we have a variant view, and the market is dramatically mispricing value.
Follow me on Twitter @valinsights